Agricultural production

2021 crop is expected to surpass by 3.2% the 2020 record

Section: Economic Statistics | Cristiane Crelier

February 11, 2021 09h00 AM | Last Updated: February 11, 2021 11h41 AM

Estimated record for soybeans is 130.3 million metric tons - Photo: Jaelson Lucas/AEN-PR

The national grain harvest for 2021, whose forecast already indicated a new record, had another high in its estimate and should reach 262.2 million metric tons, 3.2% above the production of 2020 (254.1 million metric tons), which had already been the highest in the IBGE time series. Soybeans and corn are expected to be the record holders for the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in the country. On the other hand, cotton, which had been reaching records for three years in a row, should have a reduction of 16.5% in relation to 2020.

The information is from the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA), released today (11), by the IBGE. According to the survey manager, Carlos Barradas, cotton production had been growing to meet international demands, but with the Covid-19 pandemic, the apparel sector drops resulted in a lower demand for this product, affecting the planting decisions for the next season.

“In the current season, soybean planting has been delayed due to the scarcity of rainfall in some regions and, as most of cotton areas are planted after soybeans, for the second crop, producers are likely to reduce the planted area in order to reduce weather risk. In addition, the excellent prices achieved for corn and its strong demand should influence the decision of producers as to replacing cotton with it, since corn has a lower production cost and is more easily sold”, analyzes Mr. Barradas.

Corn, according to the last report (December), had its production estimate raised by 2.0%, totaling 103.7 million metric tons, a record in the IBGE time series. In relation to the previous year, production should be 0.4% and the area to be harvested, 3.2% higher. The first crop should contribute with 25.3% to the Brazilian production in 2020 and the second, with 74.7%.

“Brazilian corn exports have increased in recent years, which, together with the exchange rate depreciation of the Brazilian Real, causes the product to increase in price in the domestic market, since the supply is not so high. As the domestic demand for this cereal remains high, due to the increased consumption of pork and poultry, as well as hen eggs, corn prices are expected to remain high. Some alcohol production plants, based on corn, are also being installed in the Central-West region, leading to the increased demand for the cereal”, comments Mr. Barradas.

And the soybean production estimate was 130.3 million metric tons, up 0.4% in relation to the previous month and 7.2% compared to the 2020 crop, reaching a new record in the IBGE time series.

Mato Grosso is the largest Brazilian producer of soybeans and the lack of rainfall in the state not only caused a planting delay but also the need for replanting in some areas. Even so, local production was estimated at 34.6 million metric tons, which represents 26.6% of the national total of soybeans to be harvested in 2021.

“In addition, in the South region, the crops in Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul suffered from decreased rainfall in November, which might result in a decline in productivity. However, as of December, rainfalls were back, and the reports informed crops were recovering well”, adds the manager.

In relation to December, there were increases in the estimates of the production of beans 2nd crop (21.5%), potatoes of 2nd crop (5.4%), cocoa (4.4%), corn of 2nd crop (2.9%), tomatoes (2.0%), beans third crop (1.6%), soybeans (0.4%), rice (0.2%) and canephora coffee (0 ,1%). On the other hand, there were declines in the production estimates for potatoes 1st crop (-0.5%), corn 1st crop (-0.6%), beans 1st crop (-0.8%), sorghum (-1.5%), upland cotton (-2.8%), and arabica coffee (-11.1%).

The South (13.3%) and Northeast (0.4%) regions increased their production estimates, while the Central-West (-1.1%), Southeast (-0.7%) and the North (-2, 1%) decreased them.