Agricultural production

First estimate forecasts record harvest of grains in 2021

Section: Economic Statistics | Caio Belandi

November 10, 2020 09h00 AM | Last Updated: November 10, 2020 03h53 PM

First forecast shows that harvest will break a record in 2021, leveraged by soybeans and corn - Photo: Abiove

The Brazilian harvest of grains, cereals and legumes should add up to 253.2 million tonnes in 2021, in case the first projection of the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production - LSPA, released today (10) by the IBGE, confirms. This figure is a new record in the time series started in 1975 and represents a growth of 0.5% in relation to the 2020 estimates, of 252 million tonnes.

The increase of 5.6 million tonnes (4.6%) in the output of soybeans and of 445.3 thousand tonnes (1.7%) in the first crop of corn should be the major sponsors for the 2021 projection. Other productions should be reduced, like the second crop of corn (-5.4%), rice (-2.4%), upland cotton (-11.9%), first crop of beans (-2.2%), second crop of beans (-4.5%) and third crop of beans (-6.5%).

According to Carlos Barradas, an analyst in Agriculture, the rising prices of the commodities in the international market foster investments in the production of grains, mainly corn and soybeans. In addition, "the pandemic caused the domestic consumption to increase and led the prices of some grains to skyrocket," explains him.

The IBGE estimates that, in 2021, the area to be harvested increases for soybean grain (1.2%), first crop of corn grain (1.7%) and second crop of corn grain (1.0%). It should be highlighted that this is only the first estimate for 2021 and the result should be changed in the next two surveys (November and December), as well as during the follow up of the harvests along 2021.

October´s estimate for 2020 harvest is 4.4% higher than 2019

The survey also released the October´s estimate for the 2020 harvest: 252 million tonnes, 4.4% higher than that obtained in 2019 (241.5 million tonnes). In terms of area to be harvested, the estimate is of 65.3 million hectares, which represents an increase of 2.1 million hectares (3.3%) over the area harvested in 2019. Rice, corn and soybeans together represent 92.6% of the estimated output and account for 87.1% of the area to be harvested.

Compared with the September´s estimate, the survey shows increases in the output of the first crop of corn (0.5%), second crop of corn (0.4%), first crop of beans (0.2%) and soybeans (0.1% or 114,003 tonnes).

On the other hand, the productions that dropped were: upland cotton (-0.2%), third crop of beans (-0.6%), second crop of beans (-1.6%), grapes (-3.2%), barley (-5.8%), wheat (-6.3%) and oat (-9.5%).

Six states account for 80% of the national production

According to the 2020 estimates, Mato Grosso leads the national production of grains with a share of 28.9%, followed by Paraná (16%), Rio Grande do Sul (10.5%), Goiás (10.3%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8%) and Minas Gerais (6.3%). Therefore, the six states together represented 80% of the national overall.

Among the regions, the Central-West leads with 47.5% of the total, followed by the South (29.1%), Southeast (10.1%), Northeast (8.9%) and North (4.4%). The total output of grains registered an annual positive change for four regions, being negative only in the South (-4.7%).

Stock capacity retreats 0.7% in first semester

Also released today by the IBGE, the Survey of Stocks unveiled that the total storage capacity available reduced 0.7% in the first semester of 2020 over the second semester of 2019, adding up to 176.5 million tonnes. In terms of storage capacity, silos prevail in Brazil with 86.8 million tonnes, which represents 49.1% of the national storage capacity.

Automated and bulk warehouses account for 37.7% of the national capacity with 6.5 million tonnes of storage capacity, 0.3% below the capacity recorded in the previous period. Conventional, structural and inflatable warehouses added up to 23.3 million tonnes, which represented a drop of 4.8% in relation to the second semester of 2019. These warehouses contribute with 13.2% of the total storage capacity.