Agricultural production

Estimate forecasts record harvest of 252 million tonnes in 2020

Section: Economic Statistics | Cristiane Crelier

October 08, 2020 09h00 AM | Last Updated: October 08, 2020 12h46 PM

Estimated at 121.4 million tonnes, the production of soybeans was not even bigger due to droughts - Photo: Jaelson Lucas/AEN-PR

Already a record, the estimate for the national harvest of grains was lifted once again and should hit 252.0 million tonnes in 2020, standing 4.4% above the 2019 harvest. This year, soybeans, upland cotton and coffee should hit their highest output levels in the IBGE´s time series.

Corn is also rising, having good perspectives in the market, yet it should not reach the record level of the previous year. The data come from the September´s Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production - LSPA, released today (8) by the IBGE.

The output of soybeans in 2020 reaches another record in the IBGE´s time series. It should add up to 121.4 million tonnes, an increase of 7.0% over the 2019 harvest and of 0.3% in relation to what was expected in August. The harvest of this legume will not be even bigger due to a retreat of 39.4% in the production in Rio Grande do Sul, which suffered with a long drought between December and May.

"The soybean prices remained high, leveraged by the appreciation of the dollar and by the strong international demand, which is shown by the pace of the anticipated sales, bigger than last year," comments Carlos Barradas, an IBGE´s Agriculture analyst.

On the other hand, the estimate for corn remains below the 2019 record, though it is getting closer (a difference of 100 thousand tonnes), being the second highest level in the IBGE´s time series. Compared with the latest information, the output estimate rose 0.2%, adding up to 100.5 million tonnes. Both the domestic demand, due to the increase in the consumption by meat producers, and the external demand, due to the real depreciation, are high.

"The low supply in the market and the high search for the product leveraged the prices in the Brazilian market, which has been stimulating investments in corn crops, mainly in Paraná and in the Central-West Region. In addition, some plants of alcohol from corn are being installed in Mato Grosso, which can also increase the demand for the cereal, taking more advantage from it, reducing the logistic costs and, consequently, reducing the price gaps among multiple places," stresses Barradas.

On the other hand, coffee is another product expected to hit a record, leveraged by the arabica variety, also offering good perspectives to the market, according to Barradas. The Brazilian output should hit 3.6 million tonnes, growing 1.7% in relation to what was expected in the previous month and 21.5% over 2019, being 2.8 million tonnes of the arabica variety.

"We had an unprecedented harvest of coffea arabica, a product of outstanding quality that should allow the Brazilian producers to recover important international markets," underlines the researcher.

Cotton has been another highlight in the 2020 grain harvest, with an expected production record of 7.1 million tonnes, an increase of 2.4% in relation to the August estimate and of 2.7% in relation to 2019.