Inflation preview

IPCA-15 hits 0.45% in September, highest rise for the month since 2012

Section: Economic Statistics | Carmen Nery

September 23, 2020 09h00 AM | Last Updated: September 24, 2020 08h54 PM

Rice prices rise 9.96% according to September's inflation preview - Photo: Helena Pontes/Agência IBGE Notícias

The Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), released today by the IBGE, was 0.45% in September, the highest result for the month since 2012. In the year, the inflation preview accumulated a high of 1.35 % and, in 12 months, reached 2.65%. The IPCA-E, which is the IPCA-15 accumulated in the quarter, went to 0.98%, above the rate of 0.26% recorded in the same period of 2019.

Food and beverage prices affected the indicator with their highest increase (1.48%) and greatest impact (0.30 percentage points). The increase in the sector was driven not only by meat - whose prices rose by 3.42% and had the greatest impact among foods, of 0.09 pp -, but also by tomatoes (22.53%), soybean oil (20 , 33%), rice (9.96%) and long life milk (5.59%). The last three items accumulated increases of 34.94%, 28.05% and 27.33% in the year, respectively.

Transportation had the second biggest change in September, 0.83%, driven by gasoline, which rose 3.19%, in the third consecutive increase, and which contributed with the greatest individual impact (0.15 pp) in the IPCA-15 . Diesel fuel (2.93%) and ethanol (1.98%) also increased. Only vehicular gas registered a decrease of 2.58%. Also in transportation, airfare increased by 6.11%, after four consecutive months of falls.

Another highlight in September comes from health and personal care, whose decrease of 0.69% is due to the health plan item (-2.31%), due to the decision of the National Supplementary Health Agency (ANS) to postpone price rise in health plan contracts until the end of 2020. The increase usually occurs in July and is counts back to May. With the postponement, all the proper increase considered for May, June, July and August, related to the adjustment that would be announced in July, was discounted in the IPCA-15 of September.

The prices of apparel items continued to fall (-0.27%) in September, although the decrease was less intense than that observed in July (-0.91%) and August (-0.63%). In the housing group (0.34%), the highlight was the water and sewage rate, which increased 1% due to the 3.40% adjustment in the fares in São Paulo (3.28%). Among the drops, the result of piped gas (-1.65%) reflects reductions of 5.16% in Rio de Janeiro (-2.99%) and 8.88% in Curitiba (-7.35% ). In electricity (-0.03%), the 2.86% increase in the tariffs in Belém (0.28%), in effect since August 7, are a highlight.

All regions had a positive change in September. The highest result was registered in Goiânia (1.10%), due to the high prices of gasoline (8.19%) and rice (32.75%). The smallest change was registered in the metropolitan area of Salvador (0.18%), where the drop in gasoline prices (-2.66%) contributed with -0.12 pp to the result of the month.