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Inflation preview

IPCA-15 records deflation of 0.01%, the lowest rate in April since the start of Plano Real

Section: Economic Statistics | Caio Belandi

April 28, 2020 09h00 AM | Last Updated: April 28, 2020 12h50 PM

Fall of gasoline prices accounted for the main individual impact on the inflation preview for April - Photo: Helena Pontes/IBGE News Agency

The fall of fuel prices marked the inflation preview for April, which recorded -0.01%,  the lowest result for the month since the start of Plano Real, in July 1994. The reduction of gasoline prices (-5.41%), which represented the main negative individual contribution to the index, of ethanol (-9.08%) and of diesel (4.65%) to a decrease of 5.76% in fuels, which influenced the Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), released today (28) by the IBGE.

The rate is 0.03 percentage points (p.p.) below the March figure, 0.02%. The cumulative IPCA-15 in the year is 0.94% and, in 12 months, 2.92%, below the 3.67% registered in the previous 12 months. In April 2019, the rate was 0.72%.


The group Transportation (which encompasses fuel prices and has the biggest weight on household consumption) represented the main contribution to the result, with a decrease of 1.47%. In the group, besides fuels, other items registered decrease: vehicle insurance (-2.74%), application transportation (-3.11%) and rental vehicles (-7.68%). On the other hand, air fares rose 14.83%, after three consecutive months of decrease. The item urban bus (0.36%) also recorded a positive change, due to the price adjustment of 5% in fares in Salvador, in effect since March 12. 

Another group recording a more significant decrease in April was Household articles (-3.19%) in April.The highlight, in this case, was TV, sound and computer equipment, the prices of which had risen in February and March and fallen by -7.15% and -1.95%, respectively.

Food prices rise 2.46% in April

Considering rising results, a highlight was Food and beverages, with a change of 2.46% and an impact of 0.48 p.p on IPCA-15. In the group, the food at home stood out, with an increase of 3.14%.

Onion (35.79%) and tomato (17.01%) accelerated against the previous month, whereas potato  went from a decrease of 1.02% in March to an increase of 21.24% in April. Carrot (31.67%) had a positive change for the fourth month in a row, with a cumulative 102.71% in the year. Meat prices (-0.27%) fell for the third consecutive month, although the current decrease was below the figures recorded in February (-5.04%) and March (-1.81%).

In Housing (0.12%), the highlight was the hike of bottled gas (0.82%) and water and seer fares (0.28%), the latter resulting from the average price adjustment of 6.23% in one of the concessionaires of Porto Alegre, in effect since March 21.

In the item electricity (-0,10%), the main change was recorded by Rio de Janeiro (5.21%), due to price adjustments in the household fares of two effected on March 15. The green tariff flag remains valid in April. That means there is no additional charge in electricity bills.  Finally, the result of bottled gas (-0.27%) is a consequence of the average reduction (0.85%) in fares charged in São Paulo (-0.45%), starting on March 2.

Six of the 11 areas surveyed recorded deflation in April. The highest index was that of the metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro (0.61%), influenced by the rise of electricity. The lowest result was that of  Goiânia (-0,52%), due to the fall of fuel prices (-8.13%), mainly of gasoline (-6.93%) and ethanol (-14.38%).

Prices were collected from March 17 to April 14, 2020 (reference) and compared with those in effect from February 12 to March 16 (base). Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, IBGE suspended on-site collection of price data on March 18. Since then, prices have been collected by other means, such as search on websites, telephone or email. 

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