Nearly 25% of municipalities reduce their population in 2017
August 30, 2017 09h00 AM | Last Updated: September 04, 2017 09h21 AM
Released today by the IBGE, the Population Estimates of the municipalities show that nearly one fourth of the 5,570 Brazilian municipalities (1,378 municipalities) reduced their population. In addition, the population growth rates were below 1% in more than half of them (2,986 municipalities) and equal to or above 2% in only 258 municipalities (4.6% of the total).
The reduction in the population was mainly concentrated in the group of municipalities with up to 20 thousand inhabitants (32.5% or 1,236 municipalities). On the other hand, those between 100 thousand and one million inhabitants concentrated the biggest proportion of municipalities growing above 1% (45.5% or 133 municipalities). Ten out of the 17 municipalities with more than one million inhabitants registered growth rates between 0.5% and 1% per year. The decrease in the number of inhabitants was more frequent in the South Region, while the North and the Central-West concentrated the biggest proportions of municipalities with growth rates above 1%.
Although the Brazilian population increased about 1.6 million persons between 2016 and 2017, changing from 206.1 million to 207.7 million inhabitants, the population growth rate (0.77%) has been decelerating over the last years, mainly due to the drop in the fertility rate. As a result, the population projection estimated that the population will hit its peak (228.4 million inhabitants) in 26 years (between 2042 and 2043) and will decrease in the coming years.
According to Izabel Marri, researcher at the IBGE´s Coordination of Population and Social Indicators, the results of the estimates show the reorganization of the population in the territory. "There is a trend of persons living in small municipalities to move to bigger cities searching for better life conditions and better access to education and employment", explained her.
The population estimate of the municipalities is calculated based on the Population Projection of the states, which takes into account the fertility, mortality and migration rates plus the population growth trend established by the 2000 and 2010 Population Censuses. For 2017, the projection shows that the fertility rate was 1.67 child per woman, the gross mortality rate was 6.15 deaths per thousand inhabitants and the migration balance – inbound persons less outbound persons – was 8,304 persons.
Text: Adriana Saraiva
Image: IBGE Archive
Graph: Helga Szpiz