In July 2025, industrial prices decreased by -0.30% compared to June 2025, the sixth consecutive negative result. In this comparison, 12 of the 24 industrial activities experienced price decreases. The year-to-date figure was -3.42%, while the 12-month figure was 1.36%. In July 2024, the PPI was 1.53%.

The Producer Price Index (IPP) for Mining and Quarrying and Manufacturing Industries measures the prices of "factory-gate prices" of products, without taxes and freight, and covers the broad economic categories.

In July 2025, industrial prices changed -0.30% compared to June 2025 (-1.27%). Twelve of the 24 industrial activities investigated in the survey showed negative price changes compared to the previous month. In comparison, 14 activities had lower average prices in June compared to the previous month.

The four most intense changes were in mining and quarrying industries (2.42%), basic metals (-1.65%), fabricated metal products (-1.54%), and perfumery, soaps, and cleaning products (1.41%).

Food was the most prominent industrial sector in the aggregate result, comparing July and June prices. This activity accounted for -0.33 percentage points (pp) of the -0.30% change in general industry. Other activities that also stood out in this regard were basic metals (-0.11 pp), mining and quarrying industries (0.10 pp), and machinery and equipment manufacturing (0.06 pp).

The year-to-date figure was -3.42% in July. For comparison, last year (2024), the cumulative rate through July was 4.13%. The year-to-date rate up to this reference month is the second lowest ever recorded for a July since the beginning of the time series in 2014.

Among the activities that, in July 2025, experienced the largest year-to-date changes, the following stood out: Mining and Quarrying industries (-12.82%), basic metals (-11.01%), printing (8.12%), and food (-7.17%). The sectors with the greatest impact on the aggregate result were: food (-1.85 percentage points), basic metals (-0.76 percentage points), Mining and Quarrying industries (-0.62 percentage points), and petroleum refining and biofuels (-0.52 percentage points).

In the 12-month period, calculated by comparing prices from July 2025 to July 2024, the change was 1.36% in this reference month. In the previous month (June 2025), this same indicator had registered a rate of 3.22%.

The sectors with the four largest price changes in July compared to the same month of the previous year were: printing (16.92%); Mining and Quarrying industries (-9.85%); beverages (7.63%); and pulp and paper (-5.62%). The largest influences on the result came from the following sectors: food (0.85 percentage points); Mining and Quarrying industries (-0.48 percentage points); petroleum refining and biofuels (-0.44 percentage points); and other chemical products (0.29 percentage points).

Among the broad economic categories, the July result was as follows: 0.51% change in capital goods (BK); -0.32% in intermediate goods (BI); and -0.43% in consumer goods (BC), with the change observed in durable consumer goods (BCD) being 0.30%, while in semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (BCND) it was -0.57%.

The main influence came from intermediate goods, whose weight in the overall index was 53.99% and accounted for -0.17 percentage points of the -0.30% change in the Mining and Quarrying and manufacturing industries.

Completing the list are consumer goods, with an influence of -0.17 percentage points, and capital goods, with 0.04 percentage points. In the case of consumer goods, the influence observed in July was divided into 0.02 percentage points, which was due to the change in the prices of durable consumer goods, and -0.18 percentage points, associated with the change in semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods.

Year-to-date, the change reached -0.11% for capital goods; -5.60% for intermediate goods; and -0.86% for consumer goods. Durable consumer goods saw a 2.03% change, while semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods saw a 1.40% change.

In terms of influence on the year-to-date result, capital goods accounted for -0.01 percentage points of the -3.42% decrease recorded in overall industry through July of this year. Intermediate goods, in turn, accounted for -3.09 percentage points, while consumer goods exerted a -0.32 percentage points influence on the industry's aggregate result. This influence is divided into 0.12 percentage points due to changes in the prices of durable consumer goods and -0.44 percentage points due to changes in semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods.

Over the 12-month period, the price change for capital goods was 3.58% in July 2025. Intermediate goods prices, in turn, changed -1.45% over this one-year period, and consumer goods prices changed 5.13%. Durable consumer goods saw a price change of 4.14%, and semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods saw a price change of 5.33%.

With a weight of 38.18% in the calculation of the overall index, consumer goods accounted for 1.89 percentage points of the 1.36% 12-month change in industry in this reference month. The July 2025 result also saw a 0.27 percentage point influence from capital goods and a -0.80 percentage point influence from intermediate goods.

The consumer goods result, in particular, was influenced by durable consumer goods by 0.25 percentage points, and by semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods by 1.64 percentage points, the latter accounting for 83.67% of the index for that broad category.

Mining and quarrying industries: After a resumption of growth in the previous month, the sector accelerated again in July, showing the largest change and the third most significant influence in the monthly comparison, respectively 2.42% and 0.10 percentage points, at -0.30%. However, these results were not enough to lift the sector out of negative territory, either in the year-to-date (-12.82%)—where the activity recorded the largest change in terms of volume—or in the year-to-date comparison (-9.85%), where it showed the second most significant change. It is worth mentioning that Mining and Quarrying industries also stood out in terms of their influence year-to-date (-0.62 percentage points in -3.42%) and over the last 12 months (-0.48 percentage points in 1.36%), representing, respectively, the third and second most significant influences.

Among the products with the greatest weight in the sector, only "copper ores and concentrates, raw or processed" (6.07%) showed a negative trend in the monthly comparison, holding back the growth of activity and demonstrating alignment with the international market. Furthermore, it is worth noting that iron ore-related products, which together account for 44.97% of the sector's sample size, reversed the trend seen in the previous month, contributing to the sector's acceleration, and again, following the behavior of the international market.

Food: From June to July, prices in the sector showed an average change of -1.33%, the sixth negative result of the year, but less intense than that observed between May and June (-3.42%). This result brought the year-to-date price drop from -5.92% in June to -7.17%, the largest cumulative drop for a month of July in the entire survey series, which began in 2010. Finally, compared to the same month in 2024, prices were still 3.50% higher in July 2025.

The sector's emphasis is justified by its fourth-highest change year-to-date among all sectors surveyed. It was also the main influence on the three rates calculated: -0.33 percentage points in -0.30% (monthly change); -1.85 percentage points in -3.42% (year-to-date); and 0.85 percentage points in 1.36% (12-month cumulative).

The four products that most influenced the July result contributed -1.32 percentage points of the -1.33% change. "VHP (very high polarization) sugar," which is among the four products with negative price changes, is in line with the decline in international prices, due to an increase in supply in producing countries, including Brazil, and lower domestic demand. In the case of "roasted and ground coffee," lower production costs, largely due to the start of the new harvest of the bean in Brazil, help explain the lower prices. "Orange juice concentrates" experienced sluggish external demand, as did "soybean residues," which still had a surplus on the market and low international prices. And all of these products, because they are exportable, have their declines intensified by the dollar's decline, which was 0.3% in July and has already accumulated a 9.3% decline by 2025.

When the activity is analyzed in more detail, in the groups for which information is generated, it is clear that, from June to July, only "dairy products" had a positive net change (0.82%). The remaining groups showed negative results, notably "sugar manufacturing and refining" (-4.31%) and "coffee roasting and grinding" (-6.20%), with sharper declines than the overall sector average.

Petroleum refining and biofuels: The sector's monthly price change interrupted four negative results recorded between March and June 2025: in July, sector prices changed 0.17% compared to the previous month. Nevertheless, both results – year-to-date (-5.22%) and 12-month (-4.28%) – remain in the deflationary range. Regarding the year-to-date (YTD), this situation has been observed since April 2025, while the 12-month (TDD) has registered deflation for the second consecutive month. The sector's 0.17% monthly change is in line with the stability observed in the international oil market during the same period.

The sector's prominence this month is justified by its fourth-largest impact on the year-to-date (-0.52 percentage points), third-largest impact on the 12-month period (-0.44 percentage points), and second-largest impact among activities in July 2025 (9.72%).

Diesel fuel, the product with the largest share in the sector, negatively impacted both the year-to-date and 12-month results. Gasoline, except for aviation, had a negative impact in all three comparisons, both at the margin and year-over-year. Ethyl alcohol (anhydrous or hydrated), with the third-largest share, had a positive impact in both comparisons. Finally, the fourth-largest share, "fuel oils, except diesel fuel", had a negative impact on the annual comparisons, although it positively impacted the monthly change.

Other chemicals: Chemical industry prices remained stable from June to July, with a 0.02% increase. Year-to-date, the sector ended the reference month with a 0.69% increase, and compared to July 2024, prices were 3.65% higher on average—the least intense result of the upward cycle for this indicator, which began in June 2024. Because they account for one of the largest weights in the PPI calculation, the influence of chemicals on the industry's overall 12-month result was among the four most intense observed in the month.

The stability of average prices in July reflected a diffuse behavior in the prices of products comprising the sectoral basket. Among the highlights due to their influence, fertilizers recorded an increase in July, with the "manufacture of inorganic chemicals" group registering a 0.97% increase in the month. In the petroleum-derived chain, propylene, which fell, more than offset the increases seen in the resin and elastomer manufacturing group, which in July was 3.05%.

Basic metals: In July, the sector recorded its seventh consecutive negative result in the monthly indicator, with a change of -1.65%. Among all the activities analyzed in the survey, it stood out as the second-largest influence on the overall industrial result (accounting for -0.11 percentage points out of -0.30%). Thus, in the first seven months of 2025, the activity accumulated a decline of 11.01%, which stands out as the second-largest change and, again, as the second-largest influence (-0.76 percentage points out of -3.42%) in this indicator. In the 12-month period, after 13 consecutive positive results, the indicator showed a negative result, with activity prices in July 2025 averaging 0.14% lower than in July 2024.

The group with the greatest influence on the monthly result, with a negative impact, was the steel industry, with a 2.69% drop in July. This result can be partially explained by a greater supply of steel in the market and the accumulated decline in iron ore prices, the main input used in its production chain, despite the one-off increase in the commodity in July. With this month's result, the group now accumulates a 7.45% drop in 2025. In the 12-month period, the group's indicator also turned negative, with a -5.06% change in the period, after a sequence of 10 consecutive increases.

In the other indicator in which the sector stands out (year-to-date), the group with the greatest influence on the sectoral result was non-ferrous metals, also with a negative impact. Its fluctuations are usually linked to international stock exchange prices, and during the period, the group was mainly influenced by fluctuations in the price of aluminum. It is also worth noting the importance of the exchange rate in explaining the group's result: in July, the dollar depreciated 0.3% against the real, and in 2025, it has already fallen 9.3%.

Manufacturing of machinery and equipment: after recording the lowest value in the survey's time series last month, when it had a 1.46% drop, the sector's average prices practically returned to the same level after registering a 1.40% increase in July. As a result, in terms of index numbers, the average prices for "manufacture of machinery and equipment," which had also recorded the highest value in the series, 185.49, in May 2025, considering December 2018 as the base 100, now recorded the second-highest level in the series, at 185.34. However, the behavior of the two groups for which data is available for publication shows significant differences. The "manufacture of engines, pumps, compressors, and transmission equipment" group had an index number of 169.32 in July, while the "manufacture of tractors and machinery and equipment for agriculture and livestock" group had an index number of 212.09 in the same period.

The reason the sector deserved to be highlighted was its impact in terms of influence, accounting for 0.06 percentage points of the total -0.30% change recorded by the industry as a whole. Also in terms of influence, all products highlighted in the monthly indicator showed positive changes.

Year-to-date, the sector's prices registered 2.39%, and in the 12-month cumulative indicator, they reached 3.74%. Considering, again, the performance of the two groups year-to-date, the "manufacture of engines, pumps, compressors, and transmission equipment" group reached 4.20%, a very different performance from the "manufacture of tractors and machinery and equipment for agriculture and livestock" group, which registered a change of 1.14%. Over the 12 months, the two groups registered 5.10% and 0.71%, respectively.