IPCA-15
Inflation preview is 0.54% in October
October 24, 2024 09h00 AM | Last Updated: October 26, 2024 02h46 AM
The October inflation preview showed an increase of 0.54%, after the 0.13% rate recorded in September. The Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), released today (24) by the IBGE, indicates that the largest change and the greatest positive impact came from the Housing group, with 1.72% and 0.26 pp, respectively. In the year, the IPCA-15 has accumulated an increase of 3.71% and, in the last 12 months, the change was 4.47%, above the 4.12% observed in the previous 12 months. In October 2023, the rate had been 0.21%.
With the exception of Transportation, whose prices fell 0.33%, eight of the nine groups of products and services surveyed increased in October. The highlight was Housing, responsible for the largest change and the greatest impact on the index. There was an acceleration in the result of this group in relation to September, when it had a change of 0.50%. The groups Food and beverages (0.87% and 0.18 pp) and Health and personal care (0.49% and 0.07 pp) complete the ranking of the three largest changes this month.
The 5.29% increase in residential electricity prices, the subitem with the greatest positive impact on the IPCA-15 in October (0.21 pp), contributed to the increase presented by the Housing group. The red tariff flag, level two, being effective as of October 1, influenced the behavior of the subitem from September (0.84%) to October. The increase in the price of bottled gas (2.17% and 0.03 pp) also contributed positively to the group's result.
In the Food and beverages group, food at home increased by 0.95% in October, after three consecutive months of price reductions. The increases in sirloin steak (5.42%), ground coffee (4.58%), and long-life milk (2.00%) impacted the group's performance. On the other hand, the decreases in onions (-14.93%), papaya (-11.31%), and potatoes (-6.69%) stood out.
Food away from home, in turn, increased from 0.22% in September to 0.66% in October, which can be explained by the increases in the prices of meals (from 0.22% in September to 0.70% in October) and snacks (from 0.20% to 0.76%).
In Health and personal care (0.49%), the health plan subitem increased by 0.53%. Adjustments authorized by the National Supplementary Health Agency (ANS) were applied to plans contracted before Law No. 9,656/98, with retroactive effect from July. Thus, the October IPCA-15 included the monthly fractions of the old plans for the months of July, August, September and October.
The only group to show a decline in October, Transportation was impacted mainly by airfares (-11.40% and -0.08 p.p.). Urban buses (-2.49%), trains (-1.59%) and subways (-1.28%) also contributed to the group's negative result, due to the free pass granted to the population on the day of the municipal elections, on October 6. Regarding fuels (-0.01%), vehicle gas (-0.71%) and diesel fuel (-0.23%) showed decreases, ethanol rose 0.02% and gasoline remained stable (0.00%).
Regarding regional indexes, all areas surveyed showed increases in October. Goiânia was the city with the greatest change (1.07%), a consequence of the increase in residential electricity (6.51%) and gasoline (5.94%). The lowest result was observed in Porto Alegre (0.17%), influenced by the drop in airfare prices (-17.16%).
More about the survey
To calculate the IPCA-15, prices were collected from September 14 to October 11, 2024 (reference) and compared with those in effect from August 15 to September 13, 2024 (base). The indicator refers to families with incomes between 1 and 40 minimum wages and covers the Metropolitan Areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador and Curitiba, as well as Brasília and the city of Goiânia. The methodology used is the same as that used for the IPCA, the difference being the period in which prices are collected and the geographic scope. See the full results at Sidra. The next release of the IPCA-15, for November, will be on November 26.
