IPCA-15
Inflation preview stands at 0.11% in January, driven by food and beverages
January 24, 2025 09h00 AM | Last Updated: January 24, 2025 09h30 PM
The inflation preview stood at 0.11% in January 2025, 0.23 percentage points below the rate of December 2024 (0.34%). Food and beverages accounted for the main influences, with an increase of 1.06% and an impact of 0.23 percentage points (p.p) on the general index, and Transportation (1.01% and 0.21 p.p.). The only negative rate came from Housing (-3.43% and -0.52 p.p), a result that helped control the index of the month.
In 12 months, the Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), released today (24) by the IBGE, has reached a cumulative increase of 4.50%, below the 4.71% observed in the 12 immediatelt previous months. In January 2024, IPCA1-15 was 0.31%.
Eight of the nine groups of products and services surveyed had positive results in January. In the context of rise of prices of Food and beverages (1.06%), food at home changed by 1.10% in January, influenced by the rise of tomato (17.12%) and ground coffee (7.07%). With drops, potato (-14.16%) and long life milk stood out (-2.81%).
Food away from home decelerated with a drop from 1.23% in December to 0.93% in January. Both snacks (0.98%) and meals (0.96%) recorded changes below those in the previous year (1.26% and 1.34%, respectively).
The other major contribution in January was that of Transportation (1.01%), influencedby air fares, which rose 10.25% and registered the main individual monthly: 0.08 p.p. In fuels (0.67%), prices of ethanol (1.56%), diesel (1.10%), vehicle gas (1.04%) and gasoline (0.53%).
Also in Transportation, the subitem urban bus changed by 0.46%. In Curitiba (-2.17%), since January 05, the fare on Sundays was reduced by 50% and, in Fortaleza (-0.45%) the social fare was adopted on December 31, 2024.
Fares also rose in: Belo Horizonte (4.00%), due to the price adjustment of 9.52% starting on January 1; Rio de Janeiro (2.79%), which rose 9.30% on January 5; Salvador (2.48%), with the price adjustment of 7.69% since January 4; Recife (1.46%), with the price adjustment of 4.87% since January 5; and São Paulo (-4.24%), 13.64% higher since January 6. The drop reflects free fares granted to the population on Christmas and New Year holidays (Dec 25 and Jan 01).
Increases were also observed in taxi fares (3.08%) in Rio de Janeiro, as a result of the price adjustment (7.83%) since Jan 02, and in São Paulo, there were increases of 1.00% in train and subway as a result of adjustments 4.00% in fares of January 06. The change of -1.78% in public transportation connections in São Paulo results from the combination of the price rises mentioned and free fares granted to the entire population on Christmas and New Year holidays (Dec 25 and Jan 01).
Incorporation of Itaipu Bonus helped hold the overall result
Housing, the only negative result in the month, had a rate of -3.43% and an impact of -0.52 p.p. on the overall index. Residential electricity was the subitem accounting for the main negative impact on the index (-0.60 p.p.), having dropped by 15.46% in January. The decrease is a result of the Itaipu Bonus, which will be paid in invoices issued in January.
Goiânia records the biggest change, and Porto Alegre, the smallest
As for regional indexes, the biggest change was that of Goiânia (0.53%), due to rises of gasoline (5.77%) and ethanol (12.29%). The lowest result occurred in Porto Alegre (-0.13%) due to the fall on residential electricity (-16.84%) and potato (-21.62%).
More about the survey
To calculate the IPCA-15, prices were collected from December 13 to January 14, 2014 (reference) and compared with those in effect from November 13 to December 12, 2024 (base).
The indicator refers to households with monthly income of 1 to 40 minimum wages and it encompasses the metropolitan areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador, Curitiba, besides Brasília and the municipality of Goiânia. The methodology is the same as the one used for the IPCA; the difference lies in the period of price collection and in the geographic coverage. See the complete result on Sidra. The next release of IPCA-15, relative to February, will be on the 25th of the same month.
