In February 2025, the volume of sales of the retail trade grew 0.5%, against January, in the seasonally-adjusted series. In the previous month, the change was 0.2%. The quarterly moving average changed 0.2% in the quarter ended in February.

In the seasonally adjusted series, the retail trade rose 1.5% against February 2024. The cumulative index in the year was 2.3% while the cumulaive index in 12 months registered growth of 3.6%.

In the extended retail trade, including motor vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and construction material, the volume of sales change 0.4% in the seasonally adjusted series. The quarterly moving average was 0.2% in February. In the non-adjusted series, including, in addition to the mentioned activities, the specialized wholesale of food, beverages and tobacco, the extended retail grew 2.4% against February 2024. The cumulative index of the year was 2.3%, whereas the cumulative index in 12 months the cumulative change was 2.9%.

In February, Brazilian retail trade grew 0.5% compared to the previous month, after the change recorded in January (0.2%), interrupting a series of four months of very close to zero changes, considered as stability. With this, the time series of the fixed base index of the margin volume indicator reaches the maximum in the time series, surpassing the previous record level (October 2024) by 0.3%.

Four of the eight activities increased compared to January

In February 2025, in the seasonally adjusted series, there was a balance between positive and negative rates. The sectors of Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (1.1%), Furniture and household appliances (0.9%), Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic and perfumery articles (0.3%) and Other personal and household articles (0.1%) had positive results.

The activities of Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-7.8%), Office, computer and communication equipment and material (-4.2%), Textiles, wearing apparel and footwear (-0.1%) and Fuels and lubricants (-0.1%) showed negative results.

The two additional activities that make up the extended retail in this indicator had a different trend: Vehicles and motorcycles, parts and pieces in the negative field, falling 2.6% and Construction material growing 1.1% in volume.

Five retail activities increased compared to February 2024

Compared to February 2024, five of the eight sectors investigated in retail trade increased: Furniture and household appliances (9.3%), Textiles, wearing apparel and footwear (8.6%), Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic and perfumery articles (3.2%), Other personal and household articles (2.6%) and Fuels and lubricants (1.5%).

The other three activities showed negative results: Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-5.2%), Office, computer and communication equipment and materials (-3.2%) and Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (-0.3%).

In extended retail trade, for the same comparison, two of the three additional activities recorded an increase: Vehicles and motorcycles, parts and pieces (10.0%) and Construction material (9.7%). Meanwhile, Wholesale specialized in food products, beverages and tobacco fell by 6.5%.

The Furniture and household appliances sector reported a 9.3% increase in sales compared to February 2024, the highest among the eight retail sectors, and the fifth consecutive month to record growth: the last month to record a negative rate was September 2024 (-0.2%). The activity also made the largest contribution to the formation of the retail interannual rate, adding 0.6 percentage points (p.p.) to the total of 1.5%. The sector starts the year with a positive accumulation in the first two months, compared to the same period in 2024, recording 6.9%. In the last twelve months, there have been gains of 4.9% up to February 2025.

The Textiles, wearing apparel and footwear activity reported an 8.6% increase in the volume of sales compared to February 2024, the second highest amplitude among the eight sectors and the tenth consecutive positive result. The contribution to the formation of the overall rate was also the second largest, in the positive field, adding 0.4 pp to the total of 1.5% of the retail year-on-year indicator. In the first two months of 2025, the sector showed gains in relation to the same period of the previous year (5.3%), demonstrating an acceleration in relation to January (2.4%). In the 12-month indicator, the activity went from 3.0% until January 2025 to 3.6% until February.

The pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic and perfumery articles sector showed a 3.2% increase in sales compared to February 2024, against 5.6% in January 2025 compared to January 2024. As a whole, there are 24 consecutive months of growth for the year-on-year indicator (the last month to register a drop was February 2024: -0.5%). As a result, the activity represents the third largest contribution to the global retail rate, adding 0.3 pp to the total of 1.5%. In the first two months of the year, the sector accumulated 4.4%, less intense than until January (5.6%). In terms of the cumulative result in the last twelve months, going from 7.2% until January to 6.6% in February, the sector shows a decrease in growth intensity.

A relevant fact in this activity is that an extraordinary data review was carried out, resulting from the acceptance of corrected data and sent directly by the survey informants. The data was received in March 2025 and, as soon as identified and confirmed, the data rectified by the informants were incorporated into the survey compilation process, then the previous information was corrected, the series was recomposed, starting in February 2024, and this entire process was validated.

With the beginning of February, the activity called Other personal and household articles, which includes department stores, opticians, jewelry stores, sporting goods, toy stores, etc., has already recorded 13 months of uninterrupted growth for the interannual indicator (2.6% in February). As a result, the first two months of 2025, compared to the first two months of 2024, closed with a 3.7% increase, adding another point to a sequence of twelve months of cumulative gains. In the last 12 months, the sector has accumulated gains of 7.1% up to February, less intense than the result up to January (7.7%).

The Fuels and lubricants sector grew 1.5% in sales compared to February 2024. This result comes after a 1.3% increase in January, which, in turn, followed a 1.8% drop in December 2024, the only drop in the last five months. In the first two months of 2025, there was an accumulation of 1.4% and in the year up to February the value is -1.4%, keeping the level of losses since November 2024: -1.4% in November; -1.6% in December 2024; and -1.5% in January 2025.

The Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery activity saw a 5.2% drop in sales compared to February 2024, the largest negative amplitude among the eight retail sectors and the tenth consecutive drop for the year-on-year indicator (the last month to register growth was April 2024: 2.4%). In the first two months of 2025, the cumulative losses reached 2.9% up to February and in the last 12 months the value is -6.6%.

The resale activity of Office, computer and communication equipment and materials showed a 3.2% drop in sales compared to February 2024, reversing the result of January, which was positive at 2.1%. As a result, the first two months of 2025 closes with cumulative losses (-0.5%) for the first time since March 2024, when it registered -0.1% in the year. A similar trend can be observed in the cumulative indicator for the last twelve months, which registered -0.4%, the first negative point after 28 months of gains.

In February, the group that includes Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco showed a change of -0.3% in sales compared to February 2024 after registering growth of 2.8% in January. As a result, the sector was the only one to contribute negatively to the composition of the interannual retail rate, adding -0.2 pp to the total of 1.5%. In the two-month period, the sector accumulated 1.2% gains, the lowest level since October 2022, when it had been 1.1%. In the last twelve months, the accumulation is positive at 3.6%.

In extended retail trade, companies that sell Vehicles and motorcycles, parts and pieces showed growth of 10.0% in the volume of sales compared to February 2024, continuing a positive trend for the twenty-second time in a row. Regarding extended retail trade, the sector recorded the largest contribution among the eleven surveyed, adding 1.8 pp to the total of 2.4% year-on-year. The first two months of 2025 showed growth of 9.5% compared to the same period of the previous year, while the twelve-month indicator closed February with 10.9% gains compared to the previous twelve months.

Sales of Construction Materials showed growth of 9.7% compared to February 2024, higher than that presented in January (3.9%). The activity made its largest positive contribution to the formation of the overall rate, adding 0.7 pp to the total of 2.4% of extended retail. The first two months of 2025 also closed with gains (6.7% above the first two months of 2024). The cumulative indicator for the last twelve months up to February is positive (5.5%) for eleven consecutive months (the last negative result was March 2024: -1.4%).

Also within the scope of extended retail, the Wholesale specialized in food products, beverages and tobacco registered a drop of 6.5% in the comparison between February 2025 and February 2024, the seventh consecutive month of decline. As a result, the sector was the one that contributed the most negatively to the interannual indicator of extended retail trade: -1.0 pp. In the year, the accumulation is -8.4% and in the last twelve months it is -10.1%.

Retail registers a 2.3% increase in the first two months of 2025

The first two months of 2025, compared to the same period of the previous year, had a growth of 2.3% for retail trade. This result represents the fifteenth consecutive period in the positive field: the last two-month period to record a negative result was the fourth of 2022 (-2.0%).

In terms of sectors, there was a predominance of positive results, with six sectors showing higher levels in the first two months of 2025 than in the same period of 2024: Furniture and household appliances (6.9%), Textiles, wearing apparel and footwear (5.3%), Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic and perfumery articles (4.4%), Other personal and domestic articles (3.7%), Fuels and lubricants (1.4%) and Hypermarkets and supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (1.2%).

Two activities closed the two-month period in the negative field: Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-2.9%) and Office, computer and communication equipment and materials (-0.5%).

In terms of extended retail trade, the first two months of 2025 grew by 2.3% compared to the same period in 2024. In terms of sectors, Vehicles and motorcycles, parts and pieces and Construction materials grew (9.5% and 6.7%, respectively), while Wholesale of food, beverages and tobacco products fell by 8.4%.

Sales increase in 21 of the 27 Federation Units compared to January

From January to February 2025, in the seasonally adjusted series, the national average retail sales rate was 0.5%, with positive results in 21 of the 27 Federation Units, with a highlight to: Rondônia (5.2%), Sergipe (3.7%) and Amazonas (3.4%). On the other hand, six Federation Units presented negative results between January and February, with a highlight to: Tocantins (-3.7%), Paraíba (-1.5%) and Rio Grande do Norte (-1.5%).

For the same comparison, in extended retail trade, there was a predominance of positive results, reaching 15 of the 27 Federation Units, with a highlight to: Rondônia (4.5%), Amazonas (2.5%) and Ceará (1.8%). On the other hand, 12 of the 27 Federation Units were under negative pressure, with a highlight to: Amapá (-3.0%), Rio Grande do Norte (-2.4%) and Rio de Janeiro (-2.1%).

Compared to 2024, sales increase in 20 Federation Units

Compared to February 2024, the change in retail sales in the current month was 1.5% with positive results in 20 of the 27 Federation Units, with positive highlights for: Amapá (9.7%), Amazonas (7.4%) and Rio Grande do Sul (6.9%). The largest changes in the negative field were: Mato Grosso (-5.4%); Roraima (-4.5%) and Pará (-3.6%).

In terms of extended retail trade, the change in February 2025 compared to February 2024 was 2.4%, with positive results in 23 of the 27 Federation Units, with highlights for: Rio Grande do Sul (9.5%), Amapá (9.2%) and Ceará (8.9%). On the other hand, negatively impacting are Roraima (-7.3%), Goiás (-1.2%) and São Paulo (-0.4%).

IBGE updates seasonal adjustment methods for short-term surveys

The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) will update the parameters of the seasonal adjustment methods for the Monthly Survey of Industry: Physical Production (PIM-PF) Brazil, Monthly Survey of Industry: Regional Physical Production (PIM-PF), Monthly Survey of Trade (PMC) and Monthly Survey of Services (PMS).

This is a routine procedure, last performed in April 2022, with the aim of incorporating the available data from the most recent periods. The statistical modeling applied makes it possible to remove seasonal and calendar effects from the time series of these surveys, which does not imply any change in the original data.

The full technical and methodological notes for each survey can be accessed here. For more information on Seasonal Adjustment of Time Series, click here. The results of the update of the seasonal adjustment methods will be made available on the date each survey is released: Monthly Survey of Industry (PIM) Brazil - April 2, at 9 am; Regional Monthly Industrial Survey (PIM)  - April 8, at 9 am; Monthly Survey of Trade (PMC) - April 9, at 9 am; Monthly Survey of Services (PMS) - April 10, at 9 am.