In September 2019, the industrial production changed 0.3% over August (seasonally-adjusted series). It was the second positive rate in a row, accumulating 1.5 in this period. In the comparison with September 2018 (non-adjusted series) there was a 1.1% high, interrupting three months of negative results in a row: June (-5.9%), July (-2.5%) and August (-2.1%).

In the first nine months of 2019, the industrial sector posted a cumulative decrease of 1.4%. The cumulative index in the last twelve months, reduced the intensity of loos over August result (-1.7%), which interrupts the prevailing downward trend started in July 2018 (3.2%).

The data are from the Monthly Industrial Survey - Physical Production -PIM-PF Brazil. See the complete publication and more information in the support material.

11 out of 26 surveyed sectors grow in September

From August to September 2019, the industry grew 0.3%, with 3 out of the 4 Major Economic Categories and 11 of the 26 surveyed sectors recording expansions in production. Among the activities, the most important positive influence was motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (4.3%), offseting the August retreat (2.4%).

Other relevant positive impacts were: manufacture of wearing apparel and accessories (6.6%), beverages (3.5%), metal products (3.7%), furniture (9.4%), computer, electronic and optical equipment (3.0%) and rubber and plastic products (1.4%). It is worth mentioning that these activities that recorded negative rates last August: -7.5%, -2.8%, -0.7%, -5.3%, -0.4% and -1.6%, respectively.

Among the fourteen sectors that reduced the production, the performances with major importance were: printing and reproduction of recorded media (-28.6%), mining and quarrying industry (-1.2%), machinery and equipment (-2.8%), pharmaceutical products (-4.65), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-0.8%) and tobacco products (-7.7%).

Among the major economic activities, durable goods (2.3%) recorded the sharpest expansion. This result eliminated the retreat of 1.4% in August. Semi-durable and non-durable goods (0.5%) and intermediate goods (0.2%) also recorded positive rates, with the first one reversing the August negative change (0.1%); and the last one recording the second consecutive month of growth and accumulating a gain of 1.8% in this period. On the other hand, the capital goods sector (-0.5%) had the only negative rate, maintaining the negative behavior which started in July 2019, with a cumulative loss of 1.3% in this period.

Quarterly moving average edges up 0.4%

In the seasonally adjusted series, the quarterly moving average for the general industry grew 0.4% in the quarter closed in September 2019 against the previous month level, after the change of 0.1% in the previous month, when the predominantly downward trend that started in August 2018 was interrupted.

Among the major economic activities, intermediate goods (0.6%), durable goods (0.6%) and semi-durable and non-durable  (0.5%) recorded the positive results In September, with the first one intensifying the advances that occurred in July (0.3%) and August  (0.3%); the second one increased again after two consecutive months of decreases, a period that accumulated a loss of 0.9%; and the last one recorded the first positive rate since May 2019. On the other hand, the capital goods sector (-0.3%) registered the only rebound in this month and keptthe negative behavior which started in July 2019, accumulating a decrease of 0.7% in this period.

Industrial production grows 1.1% in relation to September 2018

The industrial sector grew 1.1% in comparison to September 2018, with positive results in the four major economic categories, 13 out of the 26 sectors, 46 of the 79 groups and 51.9% of the 805 surveyed products. It is worth mentioning that September 2019 (21 days) had two more business days than the same month in previous year (19).

Among the activities, coke, petroleum products and biofuels (5.7%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (6.9%) and food (3.2%) were the major positive influences. It is also worth highlighting the following positive influences: beverage (10.4%), metal products (8.1%), computer, electronic and optical products (9.0%), machinery and equipment (3.8%) and furniture (11.4%).

On the other hand, among the 13 activities that recorded reduction in production, the major influences were recorded by basic metals (-6.6%), mining and quarrying (-2.7%), pulp, paper and paper products (-7.0%), pharmaceutical products (-9.1%), printing and reproduction of recorded media (-26.0%) and other chemical products (-2.5%).

Durable goods (8.7%) recorded the sharpest increase among the major economic categories. Semi-durable and non-durable goods (1.9%) also recorded a more intense advance than the national average (1.1%), meanwhile, capital goods (0.7%) and intermediate goods (0.1%) completed the positive results this month.

Durable goods grew 8.7%, after having dropped 5.3% in August. The sector was particularly boosted by the expansion in the manufacture of motor vehicles (4.9%), white goods (15.9%) and brown goods (10.9%). It is also worth highlighting the advances in motorcycles (16.4%), furniture (14.0%) and other household appliances (4.8%).

The semi-durable e non-durable goods sector advanced 1.9%, after having retreated 0.6% in August. The performance in September was explained, in part, by the high in the groups of food and beverages for domestic consumption (2.9%). It is also worth mentioning the positive results of semi-durable (5.1%) and fuels (5.0%). On the other hand, the non-durable subsector (-4.9%) recorded the only negative rate in this category. 

Capital goods advanced 0.7%, after a 3.5% rebound. The sector was influenced, in part, by the high in capital goods for industrial use (10.3%), stimulated, mainly, by the non-serial goods (51.9%), since the serial goods (1.9%) recorded a more moderate growth. The other positive rates were: capital goods for mixed use (1.5%) and electricity (0.5%). On the other hand, the negative impacts were: capital good for agriculture (-15.2%), transportation equipment (-0.3%) and construction (-2.8%).

Intermediate goods recorded a positive change of 0.1%, interrupting three months in a row of negative rates: June (-6.2%), July (-5.2%) and August (-1.9%). The September result was explained, mainly, by the advances in products related to the activities: coke, petroleum products and biofuels (6.1%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (11.5%), food (5.8%), metal products (5.8%), machinery and equipment (3.5%) and textiles (1.1%). The negative pressure was recorded by basic metals (-6.6%), mining and quarrying industry (-2.7%), pulp, paper and paper products (-8.5%), other chemical products (-2.5%) and non-metallic minerals (-0.9%). It is worth mentioning the positive results of typical inputs for civil construction (2.2%) and packaging (1.9%), with both reversing retreats noticed in the previous month: -0.1% and -0.3%.

Industry retreats 1.2% in the third quarter of 2019

The industry rebounded 1.2% in the third quarter of 2019, keeping the negative behavior noticed since the last quarter of 2018 (-1.3%), comparing with the same period in the previous year. The increase of losses from the second (-0.8%) to the third (-1.2%) quarter of 2019 was explained by the slowdown of three out of four major economic categories, with a highlight to durable goods (from 6.9% to 1.1%) and capital goods (from 5.0% to 1.1%), driven, mainly, by the fewer manufacture of motor vehicles (from 6.0% to -4.3%), in the first one; and of capital goods for transportation equipment (from 4.9% to -0.1%), in the second one. Semi-durable and non-durable goods (from 1.6% to 0.8%) also had followed that  same trend between those two periods. Intermediate goods (from -3.0% to -2.4%) was the only one which recorded gains, even though it remained with negative results for the fourth consecutive month.

In 2019, industry accumulates falls of 1.4%

In the cumulative index of the year for January-September 2019, against same period of previous year, the industrial sector rebounded 1.4% with negative results in 1 out of the 4 major economic categories, 15 of the 26 sectors, 44 of the 79 groups and 54.3% of the 805 surveyed products.

Among the activities, the mining and quarrying industry (-9.8%) exerted the major negative influence. And it is also worth highlighting the negative contributions of: pulp, paper and paper products (-3.7%), other transportation equipment (-10.9%), maintenance, repair and installation of machinery and equipment (-9.1%), pharmaceutical products (-3.4%), wood products (-5.6%), rubber and plastic products (-1.9%) and computer, electronic and optical products (-2.9%).

In contrast, among the eleven activities that have risen the production, the major influence was recorded by motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (2.7%). Other relevant positive contributions were metal products (5.0%) and beverages (3.6%).

Among the major economic categories, there was less dynamism for intermediate goods (-2.4%), under the pressure, mainly, of the verified reduction in mining and quarrying industry (-9.8%). On the other hand, durable goods (1.6%), capital goods (0.7%) and semi-durable and non-durable goods (0.4%) recorded positive rates.