Inflation preview
IPCA-15: 0.30% in July
July 25, 2024 09h00 AM | Last Updated: July 26, 2024 09h33 PM
The Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15) reached 0.30% in July, being 0.09 percentage points below the June rate (0.39%).
| Period | Rate |
|---|---|
| July 2024 | 0.30% |
| June 2024 | 0.39% |
| July 2023 | -0.07% |
| Cumulative in the year | 2.82% |
| Cumulative in the last 12 months | 4.45% |
The cumulative IPCA-15 in the last 12 months is 4.45%, above the 4.06% observed in the immediately previous 12 months. In July 2023, the rate was -0.07%.
Seven of the nine groups of products and services surveyed increased in July. Transportation (1.12% and 0.23 percentage points) accounted for the biggest change and the main impact on the index, followed by Housing (0.49% and 0.07 p.p.). The group Food and beverages dropped by 0.44%, after eight consecutive months of increase. The other changes ranged between -0.08% of Wearing apparel and 0.33% of Health and personal care.
| Group | Change (%) | Impact (p.p.) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June | July | June | July | |
| General index | 0.39 | 0.30 | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| Food and beverages | 0.98 | -0.44 | 0.21 | -0.09 |
| Housing | 0.63 | 0.49 | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| Household articles | -0.01 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Wearing apparel | 0.30 | -0.08 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Transportation | -0.23 | 1.12 | -0.05 | 0.23 |
| Health and personal care | 0,57 | 0,33 | 0,08 | 0,05 |
| Personal expenses | 0.25 | 0.32 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Education | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Communication | 0.17 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Índices de Preços, Sistema Nacional de Índices de Preços ao Consumidor. | ||||
InFood and Beverages (-0,44%), food at home fell by 0.70% in July. This result was driven by decreases in carrots (-21,60%), tomato (-17.94%), onion (-7,89%) and fruits (-2.88%). In terms of increases, long-life milk (2.58%) and ground coffee (2.54%).
Food away from home (0.25%) slowed down against June (0.59%), due to less intense increases in snacks (from 0.80% in June to 0.24% in July) and meals (0.51% in June to 0.23% in July).
The result of Housing (0.49%) was mainly influenced by residential electricity (1.20% and 0.05 p.p.). In July, the yellow tariff flag came into effect, which adds R$1.885 to every 100 kwh consumed. The increase was also influenced by the following adjustments in fares: 6.76% in Belo Horizonte (3.40%), since May 28; and -2.43% in one of the concessionaires in São Paulo (0.42%), since July 4.
Also in Housing, the rise of water and sewage fares (0.22%) is due to the following adjustments in fares: 9.85% in Brasília (5.02%), since June 1; and 2.95% in Curitiba (0.09%), since May 17. In piped gas (-0.28%), the result in Rio de Janeiro (-0.93%) is due to an average adjustment of 1.75%, since June 1st.
As for Transportation (1.12% and 0.23 p.p.), airfares rose by 19.21% and contributed 0.12 p.p. to the July index. Considering fuels (1.39%) gasoline (1.43%), ethanol (1.78%) and diesel (0.09%) rose, while vehicular gas (-0.25%) recorded a drop in prices.
As for the regional indexes, ten areas of coverage rose in July. The biggest change was recorded in Brasília (0.61%), due to increases in airfares (13.68%), water and sewage fares (5.02%) and gasoline (2.94%). The lowest rate was in Recife (-0.05%), with decreases in prices of tomato (-37.13%) and carrots (-28.27%).
| Area | Regional Weight (%) | Monthly Change (%) | Cumulative Change (%) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June | July | Year | 12 months | ||
| Brasília | 4.84 | 0.24 | 0.61 | 2.22 | 5.26 |
| São Paulo | 33.45 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 2.70 | 4.55 |
| Curitiba | 8.09 | 0.43 | 0.33 | 2.72 | 3.85 |
| Rio de Janeiro | 9.77 | 0.38 | 0.33 | 2.72 | 4.45 |
| Goiânia | 4.96 | 0.33 | 0.31 | 2.47 | 4.31 |
| Fortaleza | 3.88 | 0.48 | 0.25 | 2.93 | 4.98 |
| Belo Horizonte | 10.04 | 0.68 | 0.25 | 4.05 | 5.27 |
| Belém | 4.46 | 0.16 | 0.19 | 3.12 | 4.97 |
| Porto Alegre | 8.61 | 0;41 | 0.17 | 2.29 | 3.72 |
| Salvador | 7.19 | 0.25 | 0.11 | 3.06 | 4.31 |
| Recife | 4.71 | 0.31 | -0.05 | 2.77 | 3.11 |
| Brazil | 100.00 | 0.39 | 0.30 | 2.82 | 4.45 |
| Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Índices de Preços, Sistema Nacional de Índices de Preços ao Consumidor. | |||||
To calculate the IPCA-15, the methodology is the same as the one used for the IPCA; the difference lies in the period of price collection and in the geographic coverage. In order to estimate the IPCA-15, prices were collected from June 15 to July 15, 2024 (reference) and compared with those in effect from May 16 to May 14, 2024 (base). The indicator refers to households with monthly income of 1 to 40 minimum wages and encompasses the metropolitan areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador, Curitiba, besides Brasília and the municipality of Goiânia. The methodology is the same as for the IPCA; the difference lies in the data collection period and geographic coverage.
