GDP grows by 7.7% in Q3 2020

December 03, 2020 09h00 AM | Last Updated: December 07, 2020 09h59 AM

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 7.7% in Q3 2020 (against Q2 2020), in the seasonally adjusted series. Against the same period in 2019, GDP fell 3.9%. Considering the cumulative indexes ended September, a 3,4% decrease was observed against the four previous quarters.

Period for comparison Indicators
GDP AGRICULTURE INDUSTRY SERVICES GFCF HOUS. CONS. GOV. CONS.
Quarter/previous quarter (seasonally-adjusted) 7.7% -0.5% 14.8% 6.3% 11.0% 7.6% 3.5%
Quarter/ same quarter a year ago (without seasonal adjustment) -3.9% 0.4% -0.9% -4.8% -7.8% -6.0% -5.3%
Cumulative in four quarters / same period a year ago (without seasonal adjustment) -3.4% 1.8% -3.5% -3.5% -4.0% -4.1% -3.7%
Current values in Q3 (R$) 1.9 trillion 105.5 billion 354.0 billion 1.2 trillion 306.3 billion 1.2 trillion 371.2 billion
Investment Rate (GFCF/GDP) in Q3 2020 = 16.2%
Savings Rate (SAVINGS/GFCF) in Q3 2020 = 17.3%

GDP of Q3 2020 at current prices amounted to R$ 1.891 trillion, being R$ 1.627 trillion as Value Added (VA) at basic prices and R$ 264.1 billion as Product Taxes Less Subsidies.

Investment rate in Q3 was 16.2% of GDP, virtually unchanged against that in the same period of 2019 (16.3%).

As for cumulative figures in the year up to Q3 2020, GDP fell 5.0% against the same period in 2019. in the same comparison, Agriculture grew 2.4%, whereas Industry (-5.1%) and Services (-5.3%) recorded decreases.

Main results for GDP at market prices from Q3 2019 to Q3 2020 (%)
Rates (%) 2019.III 2019.IV 2020.I 2020.II 2020.III
Cumulative in the year / same quarter a year ago 1.3 1.4 -0.3 -5.6 -5.0
Last four quarters / four immediately previous quarters 1.4 1.4 1.0 -2.1 -3.4
Quarter/ same quarter a year ago 1.3 1.6 -0.3 -10.9 -3.9
Quarter / immediately previous quarter (seasonally-adjusted) -0.2 0.2 -1.5 -9.6 7.7
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Contas Nacionais

GDP grows 7.7% from the previous quarter

In Q3 2020, GDP increased by 7.7% from the previous quarter, in the seasonally-adjusted series. Agriculture fell 0.5%, Industry grew 14.8% and Services grew 6.3%.

Among industrial activities, a highlight was the growth of manufacturing industry by 23.7%. There was also increase of Electricity and gas, water, sewage, residue management activities (8.5%), Construction (5.6%) and Mining and quarrying industry (2.5%).

All the segments of Services recorded increase: Trade (15.9%), Transportation, storage and mailing (12.5%), Other services activities (7.8%), Information and communication (3.1%), Administration, defense, public health and education (2.5%), Financial activities, insurance and related services (1.5%) and Real estate activities (1.1%).

From the perspective of expenditure, Gross Fixed Capital Formation increased 11.0% from the previous quarter. Household Consumption Expenditure grew 7.6% and Government Consumption Expenditure, by 3.5%.

Exports of Goods and Services recorded a decrease of 2.1%, whereas Imports of Goods and Services fell 9.6% from the preceding quarter.

GDP fell 3.9% in Q3 2020

Against the same period a year ago, GDP fell 3.9% in Q3 2020. That was the third consecutive decrease in this comparison. Value added at basic prices fell 3.7% and Product Taxes less subsidies shrank 5.1%.

Among the activities, Agriculture grew 0.4% against the same period in 2019. That result was mainly due to the increase of production and gain in productivity of Agriculture, which made up for the weak performance of Livestock and Fishing. A highlight is the increase of annual estimates for the production of coffee (21.6%), sugarcane (3.5%), cotton (2.5%) and corn (0.3%).

Industry fell 0.9%. In this context, Construction shrank 7.9%, affected by the decrease of employment in this activity. Manufacturing industry recorded a negative change of 0.2%. Electricity and gas, water, sewage, residue management activities, in turn, increased 3.8%, mainly due to the increase of tax flags, which remained green throughout the quarter. Mining and quarrying industry fell 1.0% against Q3 2019, pushed by the rise of petroleum and gas.

Services fell 4.8% against the same period in 2019, with a highlight to the decrease of Other service activities (-14.4%) and Transportation, storage and mailing (-10.4%). Decrease was also observed in Administration, defense, public health and education and social security (-5.4%), Trade (-1.3%), Information and communication (-1.3%). On the other hand, Financial activities, insurance and related services (6.0%) and Real estate activities (2.7%) recorded increases.

Household Consumption Expenditure fell for the third quarter in a row (-6.0%), due to the COVID-19 pandemic which, besides having a negative effect on the labor market, led to the decrease of supply and demand of services with a relatively good participation in household expenditure.

Gross fixed capital formation fell 7.8% in Q3 2020. The magnitude of decrease is a result of the fall of production and imports of capital goods, as well as of the decrease in Construction.

Regarding the foreign sector, Exports of Goods and Services fell 1.1% and Imports of Goods and Services, 25.0% in Q3 2020.

Cumulative GDP for the January-September period fell 5.0%

Cumulative GDP in the year, up to Q3, fell 5.0% against the same period in 2019. In this comparison, Agriculture fell 2.4%, whereas Industry (-5.1%) and Services (-5.3%) recorded decreases.

Investment rate in Q3 was 16.2%

GDP investment rate hit 16.2% in Q3 2020 versus 16.3% in the same period a year ago. Savings rate was 17.3% in Q3 2020, above the 13.7% of the same period in 2019.

Revision of Quarterly National Accounts

Quarterly National Accounts usually undergo a more encompassing revision with the release of Q3 results every year. In the current edition, the main revised figures are shown below.

Table I.1 - Revision of growth rates in the year - 2019
  Previous (%) Current (%) Difference (p.p.)
Agriculture 1.3 0.6 -0.6
Industry 0.5 0.4 -0.1
Services 1.3 1.7 0.4
GDP 1.1 1.4 0.3
Household Consumption Expenditure 1.8 2.2 0.4
Government Consumption Expenditure -0.4 -0.4 0.0
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2.2 3.4 1.1
Exports of Goods and Services -2.5 -2.4 0.2
Imports of Goods and Services (-) 1.1 1.1 0.0
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Contas Nacionais.
Table I.2 – Revision of growth rates in the quarter against the same quarter in the preceding year
  Q1 2020 Q2 2020
  Previous (%) Current (%) Previous (%) Current (%)
Agriculture 1.9 4.0 1.2 2.5
Industry -0.1 -0.3 -12.7 -14.1
Services -0.5 -0.7 -11.2 -10.2
GDP -0.3 -0.3 -11.4 -10.9
Household Consumption Expenditure -0.7 -0.7 -13.5 -12.2
Government Consumption Expenditure 0.0 -0.8 -8.6 -8.5
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 4.3 6.0 -15.2 -13.9
Exports of Goods and Services -2.2 -2.4 0.5 0.7
Imports of Goods and Services (-) 5.1 5.2 -14.9 -14.6
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Contas Nacionais.