In the seasonally adjusted series, the industrial output fell 1.0% in December last year, compared with November, and rose in all other comparisons. The increase was of 2.9% in relation to December 2002 and the cumulative index in 2003 was of 0.3%. On a quarterly basis, the last quarter of 2003 also registered positive figures, both quarter on quarter (3.3% in the seasonally adjusted series) and against the fourth quarter of 2002 (1.5%).

The drop recorded from November to December interrupted a sequence of five positive figures in this kind of comparison and encompasses the majority (15) of the 20 sectors surveyed, as well as three out of four categories of use. Among the industrial sectors, it is worth mentioning the negative performance of mechanics (-3.6%), reducing the level of production after a five-month increase, when it registered a cumulative rate of 12.7%. As to the indexes by category of use, the main one is capital goods (-5.3%), which recorded a fall in December after growing for five months, followed by semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-3.6%) and durable consumer goods (-2.1%). The last segment increased the production from June to November last year, a cumulative (November 2003/May 2003) expansion of 21.5%. By rising 0.9%, intermediate goods registered the only positive figure among the categories of use, sustaining the upward trend for six consecutive months, when it recorded a cumulative growth of 8.6%.

12 out of 20 industrial sectors grow in relation to December 2002

The industrial output registered an increase of 2.9% against December 2002, maintaining a sequence of four months of positive rates. Twelve out of the twenty sectors surveyed increased the production. The major positive impacts, in order of importance, came from mining and quarrying (7.3%), transportation material (11.6%) and mechanics (7.6%). In these sectors, the highlight items were, respectively: petroleum, cars and tractors.

Among the categories of use, still compared with December 2002, the segment of durable consumer goods recorded the highest rate (10.3%), mainly supported by the increase in the production of cars (20.6%) and household appliances (16.7%). The production of capital goods increased 9.2% against the same month last year, mainly influenced by the growth of capital goods for agricultural purposes (22.0%). The subsectors of capital goods for industrial purposes (1.1%) and for transportation remained in the positive side.

Still comparing December 2003/December 2002, the production of intermediate goods rose 4.8%, mainly influenced by the performance of the industries of mining and quarrying (7.3%), basic metals (4.2%), electric material and communication equipment and apparatus (24.1%) and transportation material (17.9%). Among the negative influences over the sector of intermediate goods, the highlights were inputs for civil construction (-9.2%) and packaging (-3.2%). The sector of semi- and non-durable consumer goods was the only one that registered a drop (-7.7%). In this kind of comparison, the production of this sector virtually recorded negative figures throughout 2003.

Quarterly moving average, positive since August, stabilizes in December

The quarterly moving average index, which was positive for the overall industry and for every category of use since last August, recorded a slight drop in December, virtually at the same level of November (-0.1%). As to the categories of use, the sectors of intermediate goods (0.6%), durable consumer goods (0.6%) and capital goods (0.5%) sustained the positive trend in December. The production of semi- and non-durable consumer goods registered the only negative rate (-2.0%).

The cumulative figure in the year (0.3%) reflected very differentiated sectoral performances. Nine sectors recorded growth, led by mechanics (8.9%), both in terms of the impact on the overall index and in relation to the magnitude of the growth rate. The highlights were tractors and stationary diesel motors. Other relevant positive impacts on the overall index came from the industries of basic metals (4.5%) and mining and quarrying (2.4%), the former mainly due to the items cast iron and steel in forms and pieces and stainless steel plates; and the latter due to the performance of petroleum and aluminum ore. Conversely, the industries that most influenced the overall rate among the 11 declining industries were: wearing apparel and footwear (-12.5%), food products (-2.7%), pharmaceuticals (-18.5%) and textiles (-6.9%).

The indexes by category of use showed that intermediate goods led the industrial performance in 2003. Supported by the favorable performance of the sectors associated with agribusiness and exports, as well as by the growing extraction of petroleum and natural gas, the production of intermediate goods increased 1.6%. Capital goods registered an increase of 1.0%, also above the overall average, highlighted by the positive performance of the mechanics industry (9.0%). The performance of the sector of consumer goods was negative (-4.4%), particularly the sector of semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-5.5%), which is more dependent on the evolution of the salaries. Though negative, the index for durable consumer goods (-0.5%) offset significantly along the year. After dropping 4.3% in the first quarter, the performance of durable consumer goods increased 3.1% in the second half of the year, leveraged by better credit conditions.

The analysis of the industrial activity in 2003, considering the quarterly moving average indexes, revealed two different phases.  The first phase, comprising the period of December 2002 to July 2003, recorded a generalized reduction of the production level. The overall sector dropped 3.7% and the categories of use registered the following figures: durable consumer goods (-10.1%), semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-5.0%), capital goods (-4.6%) and intermediate goods (-3.1%). The second phase, started in July 2003, significantly recovered the overall production, expanding 5.7% between the quarters ended in July and December, a movement virtually followed by every category of use. In this period, the sector of durable consumer goods (18.1%) led the expansion, followed by capital goods (13.7%) and intermediate goods (6.1%). On the other hand, the area of semi- and non-durable consumer goods, highly dependent on the salaries, maintained the negative trend by decreasing 1.1%.