Between May and June, nine of the 14 surveyed locations presented negative rates, not considering the seasonal influences, following the fall observed in the country average (-1%). ...

Between May and June, nine of the 14 surveyed locations presented negative rates, not considering the seasonal influences, following the fall observed in the country average (-1%). The most significant decreases were registered for Goiás (-9.2%) and Bahia (-6%), followed by the Northeast region (-3.5%), Minas Gerais (-3.3%), Pernambuco (-2.3%), Santa Catarina (-2.1%) and Paraná (-1.7%). São Paulo (-0.6%) and Pará (-0.3%) registered a drop below the national average, while Rio de Janeiro remained unchanged (0%). The four areas to register advances in their outputs were Espírito Santo (4.9%), Amazonas (2.4%), Rio Grande do Sul (1.5%) and Ceará (0.7%).

The quarterly moving average index to the national total volume fell back 0.7% between May and June, interrupting its upward trend since March of the last year. In regional terms, 12 of the 14 surveyed locations followed this movement, with the largest negative contributions from Goiás (-3%), Amazonas (-2.1%) and Pernambuco (-1.5%). Comparing this quarter with the immediately previous one, still considering the seasonal adjusted series, the industrial output has grown for five consecutive periods, but it registered a slower growth pace, as it changed from 4.1% in the last quarter of the last year and 3% in the first quarter of this year to 1.4% in the second quarter of this year. In regional terms, except for Bahia, which changed from 0.6% in January-March to 0.7% in April-June, all the surveyed locations followed this movement, with the largest negative contributions from Goiás (from 13.7% to –2.9%), Amazonas (from 11.1% to –2.1%) and Espírito Santo (from 6.6% to –1.4%).

The results of June showed a positive scenario for the regional industrial output at the end of the first semester of 2010. The national expansion of the activity in the first six months of 2010 (16.2%) reached the 14 surveyed locations, eight of them registered advances above the average of the country. The largest contributors were Espírito Santo (36.9%) and Amazonas (28.2%), followed by Minas Gerais (22.4%), Goiás (21.1%), Paraná (19.6%), Pernambuco (18%) and Ceará (17.1%). The positive performances of these locations confirm the upward trend observed for the total volume of the Brazilian industry in 2010, with the largest contributions from the sectors of capital goods and durable consumption goods (automobiles and electrical appliances) and from the activities relative to the exported commodities (iron ores and manufacture of basic iron and steel), offset by the low rates when the national industry fell back by 13.4% at the end of the first semester of 2009. The other positive results were São Paulo (15.3%), Northeast region (14.1%), Bahia (13.7%), Santa Catarina (12.3%), Rio Grande do Sul (11.3%), Rio de Janeiro (10.8%) and Pará (8.8%).

In the quarterly analysis, all locations registered positive rates in the comparison of the second quarter of 2010 with the same period in 2009. In the national level, the growth pace of the industrial activity slowed down between the first three months of 2010 (18.2%) and the second quarter of the year (14.3%). Eight of the 14 surveyed locations registered the same movement between those periods, with the largest contributions to the reduction of growth from Espírito Santo (from 44.1% to 30.5%), Goiás (from 26.5% to 16.4%), Rio Grande do Sul (from 15.6% to 7.5%) and Amazonas (32.3% to 24.3%). São Paulo, which presents the most diversified industrial structure among the surveyed locations, also followed the national movement between the first and the second quarter, changing from 18.1% to 12.9%. Paraná (from 12.8% to 26.4%%) was the location to register the most significant gain between both periods.

Regarding the indices of June, compared with the same month in 2009, the scenario was also positive, since all the surveyed locations registered expansion. The positive rates fluctuated from 41.3% in Paraná to 1.9% in Bahia. Above the national average (11.1%), besides Paraná, there were the relevant rates of Espírito Santo (35.2%), Amazonas (22.8%), Ceará (20.6%), Pernambuco (17.6%) and Minas Gerais (12.9%). The remaining positive results were from the Northeast region and São Paulo (both with 9.9%), Rio de Janeiro (8.7%), Rio Grande do Sul (7.8%), Santa Catarina (6.8%), Pará (2.2%) and Goiás (2%).