The volume of sales and nominal revenue (-0.03%) fell for the second consecutive month.  In the series without adjustment, the volume of sales increased by 2.30% compared to July /05, accumulating 5.18% in the year and 5.14% in the last 12 months.  The rates of nominal revenue were, respectively, 3.35% compared to July/05; 6.89% in the accumulated rate in the year and 7.69% in the last 12 months.

The retail trade of the country had a negative change (-0.45%) in the volume of sales, from June to July 2006, already seasonally adjusted.  It is the second consecutive time in which the analysis indicates decrease in the relation month/ previous month.  The nominal revenue, according to the same comparison, changed –0.03%, closing a sequence of two negative results (Tables 1 and 2).

Table 1 - Brazil - Volume of sales of retail trade and extended retail trade according to groups of activity - PMC - 2006

Still in the adjusted series, the analysis of four among eight activities of the sector indicated decrease: Furniture and household appliances (–2.65%, negative for two consecutive months); Textiles, apparel and footwear (-0.72%, negative for three consecutive months); Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (-0.46%) (the subgroup Super and hypermarkets had a rate of –0.61, first decrease in three months) and Fuels and lubricants (-0.44%, negative for three consecutive months). The segment Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and accessories which belongs to the Extended Retail Trade stood out with hike of 8.23% compared to the previous month.

Without adjustment
In the series without adjustment, the volume of sales increased by 2.30% compared to July /05; 5.18% in the accumulated rate in the year; and 5.14% in the accumulated rate in the last 12 months.  The nominal revenue indicated rates of 3.35% compared to July/05; 6.89% in the accumulated rate in the year and 7.69% in the last 12 months.

In the relation July 06/ July 05, six among eight retail activities had increase in the volume of sales. By degree of importance: 4.97% for Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco; 11.50% for  Other articles for personal and domestic use; 2.09% for Furniture and household appliances; 26.93% for  Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery articles; 3.28% for Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic and perfumery articles; 2.27% for Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery articles. The decreases were observed in the segments Textiles, apparel and footwear (-5.10%) and Fuels and lubricants (-10.18%).

The growth of Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco occurred, mainly due to the improvement in the average income of workers in relation to July /05, as well as due to the improvement in the employment with a formal contract, with rates of 3.4% and 5.1%, respectively, according to the Monthly Employment Survey (PME).  The segment reached, in the seven first months of the year, a rate of 7.19% in relation to the same month of the previous year, accumulating in the last 12 months increase of 5.26%.

With the second major influence on the rate, Other articles for personal and domestic use registered sales 11.50% higher in relation to July /2005.  Including segments as department stores, glasses’ shops, jewelry stores, sporting goods stores, toy stores, etc, the activity was benefited by the favorable consumer credit conditions and by the evolution of the overall wages. The effect is visible in the accumulated rate January-July/06, with increase of 14.33% compared to the same period of 2005, and in the rate of the last 12 months, reaching 15.27%.
The segment Furniture and household appliances brought, in July, the third major influence in the retail trade result, with sales 2.09% higher in relation to the same month of the previous year.  The activity was benefited by favorable consumer credit conditions and by loans charged through salary accounts, which opened the possibility for growth with rates of 7.98% and 9.93% in the accumulated rate of the year and in the accumulated rate of the last twelve months, respectively. Nevertheless, the rhythm of growth is decelerating, which can be explained by the high base of comparison, consequence of the strong expansion observed in 2004 (26.41%) and 2005 (16.02%), as well as a relative diminishment in the indebtedness capacity of families.

Office machines and computer and communication equipment brought the fourth major positive result on the formation of the sales indicator, with increase in the volume, in July, of 26.93% compared to same month of the previous year. Stands out that the growth in the activity resulted in the decrease of prices (mainly of computer products) and improvement in the levels of income.  In accumulated terms, rates of 37.53% were observed in the seven first months of the year and 49.35% in the last 12 months.
The activity Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic and perfumery articles, with the fifth major participation in the overall rate of retail trade, had result of 3.28% in the comparison with July 2005, with an accumulated rate from January to July of 4.09%, and in the last 12 months, 6.40%.
Completing the scenario of positive rates in the overall result, Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery articles registered sales of 2.27% higher compared to July/05.   With the growth of 1.05% in the accumulated rate of the year and 1.64% in the last 12 months the segment obtained the lowest sale increases in 2006.
With decrease of 5.10% in the volume of sales in relation to the same month of the previous year, Textiles, apparel and footwear once again showed a negative performance compared to the previous month (-2.60%). Nevertheless, there was not an influence in the accumulated rates, which continued positive: 1.62% in the first seven months of the year and 5.19% in the last 12 months.

The volume of sales of Fuels and lubricants reached the 19th consecutive month of fall: - 10.18% in relation to July 2005, accumulating –10.04% in the year and –9.01% in the last 12 months).

Regional Analysis
By Federative Unit, in the comparison with seasonal adjustment for the volume of sales month/ previous month /2006, the following scenario was obtained: 15 Federative Units with positive changes and 12 with negative changes. The main positive increments occurred in Rondônia (4.60%), Alagoas (4.27%), Bahia (3.85%), Pernambuco (3.82%), Acre (3.26%).  The major reductions were observed in Tocantins (-7.74%), Federal District (-3.33%), Maranhão (-2.67%), Rio de Janeiro (-2.18%) and Goiás (-2.08%).

20 among 27 Federative Units had positive results in the volume of sales in the comparison July 06/ July/05, with the changes of major magnitude found in Roraima, with a rate of 36.68%; Acre (27.86%); Amapá (19.74%); Tocantins (12.29%) and Piauí (11.15%).  The main decreases were observed in Mato Grosso (-13.05%); Rio Grande do Sul (-3.67%); Paraná (-2.16%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (-2.08%).

Regarding the participation in the composition of the overall indicator in the retail trade, the highlights were, in order, Minas Gerais (9.88%), São Paulo (1.81%), Bahia (7.73%), Pernambuco (5.97%), Espírito Santo (6.96%) and Amazonas (9.28%).

Retail Trade

For the Extended Retail Trade, integrated by retail plus the activities of Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and accessories and Construction material, there was change in the relation July 06/ July 05 of 6.59% for the volume of sales and 7.76% in the nominal revenue.  In the accumulated indexes in the year and of the last 12 months, the segment had rates of 4.48% and 3.92% for the volume of sales and 6.48% and 6.87% for the nominal revenue, respectively.

Regarding the volume of sales, Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces changed the scenario of decrease observed in the previous month (-3.87% compared to June/05), increasing to 15.69%.  In the accumulated indexes of the seven first months and 12 last months, the changes were of 3.78% and 2.67%, respectively. The segment Construction material continued its positive trend, with 10.62% compared with June 2005.  In accumulated terms, the rates were 0.94% from January to July and –2.25% in the last 12 months.

In the extended retail, by Federative Unit, the best sale performances were observed in Acre (36.29%), Amapá (26.80%), Roraima (26.61%), Maranhão (23.51%) and Tocantins (17.57%).  The major influences in the formation of the indicator were observed in São Paulo (4.98%), Minas Gerais (10.98%), Bahia (13.42%), Rio de Janeiro (4.12%) and Federal District (12.04%).