The first estimate of IBGE for the national production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds (cotton seed, peanuts, rice, beans, castor seeds, soybeans, oats, rye, barley, sunflower seeds, wheat and triticale) in 2006 is 126,635 million tons ...

The first estimate of IBGE for the national production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds (cotton seed, peanuts, rice, beans, castor seeds, soybeans, oats, rye, barley, sunflower seeds, wheat and triticale) in 2006 is 126,635 million tons (the production of grains in 2005 was about 112,862 million tons). The estimated planted area is 46,867 million hectares, 4.46% less than in 2005, when the figure was 49,053 million hectares.

IBGE released, in October, the first estimate for areas planted or to be planted and of the production of 2006 in the Southeast, South and Central-West regions and in the states of Rondônia, Bahia, Piauí and Maranhão. To estimate the volume of production in 2006 (126,635 million tons) were considered, besides the three regions and the four states mentioned, the prospects for winter crops (oats, rye, barley and wheat) and for the second and third harvest products. There are no initial estimates for these products due to the agricultural calendar. In the remaining states, information from previous years was used as reference.

According to the estimate, the division of the national production of grains by major region is expected to be:

Regarding planted area, four types of crop may present positive changes in relation to 2005: onions (2.69%), beans – 1^st harvest (grain) (2.60%), tobacco in leaf (2.45%) and corn – 1^st harvest (5.93%). There are negative estimates for herbaceous cotton seed (-28.07%), peanuts in husk (-2.36%), rice in husk (-16.32%), potatoes – 1^st harvest (-0.97%), sugar cane (-2.84%), cassava (-5.96%) and soybeans (-6.39%)

Climatic conditions remain regular in the main producing areas of grains in the country, in the begining of national harvest 2005/2006.

Estimates for the main crops

Production of about 2.8 million tons of cotton seed, versus 3.6 million tons in 2005 (fall of 24%) is expected. The main reason for this decrease is the low estimates for cotton in the internal and external markets. In case of a price reaction, the prediction may be altered. The main producer is the state of Mato Grosso.

In case of rice in husk, the estimate for the main producers, Rio Grande do Sul (6 million tons) and Mato Grosso (995 thousand tons) shows decrease of 0.39% and 56%, respectively. Low prices account for these results. For 2006, a production of rice of about 11.9 million in the country is expected, 9.8% less than in 2005. It is observed that, besides low prices, there is also a great amount harvested in 2005 still stored, depending on commercialization and without prospects of sales.

Concerning beans – 1^st harvest, an increment of 24% in relation to the production of 2005 is observed due to the positive estimates for the product. In the main producing states, Paraná and Bahia, increase of 24% and 60% is expected, a respective production of 487 thousand and 210 thousand tons. It is worth mentioning that, in Paraná, planting is already finished. In Bahia, however, the climatic conditions are not appropriate for sowing yet. In case of lack of drought, this initial prospect may changed.

As for corn – 1^st harvest, a tendency of expansion of planted area is observed in the main regions, despite occasional low prices and the large amount of corn still in stock since the previous harvest. It is believed that the importance of this product to the expansion of poultry keeping will cause a positive reaction of the corn market in the future. Thus, for the corn harvest in 2006, a production of 33,928 million tons is expected, a figure 25% higher than that of 2005. In an area of 9.4 million hectares planted or to be planted, a productivity of 3,600kg/ha is expected.

Productivity of soybeans expected to increase by 15%

In the beginning of the planting period, increase of 15% of the In relation to soybeans (grain) production is expected for 2006 – 58,741 tons versus 51,090 million tons harvested in 2005. The area planted or to be planted must have a decrease of 6.39% next year (estimate: 21,905 million hectares), whereas productivity will have an increment of about 20% (2,743 kg/ha).

The division of production of soybeans by major region is expected to be: North - 1,310 million tons (-2.65%); Northeast - 3,871 million tons (-2.19%); Southeast - 4,683 million tons (-0.96%); South - 19,668 million tons (57%); Central-West - 29,209 million tons (2.34%). The increases in the South region reveal the recovery of productivity indexes, which have been extremely affected by the drought of 2005. Productivity in Rio Grande do Sul may change from 665kg/ha in 2005 to 1804 kg/ha in 2006. The other states – Paraná, Santa Catarina and Mato Grosso do Sul – must present, , respectively, productivity indexes 30%, 52% and 53% higher next year. Most of the bigger production of soybeans expected to happen in 2006 will come from these states, areas in which climatic conditions were severe during the 2005 harvest.

Other important producers of soybeans – Mato Grosso, Goiás and Bahia – must show reduction of their estimates in 2006, due to low prices, financial difficulties faced by producers and currency devaluation, among other factors. In Mato Grosso, the major soybeans producer in the country, reduction of planted area and of estimated production (6.35% and 3.37%) is expected, resulting in 5.8 million hectares and 17 million tons of soybeans in 2006.