There was a fall of 0.4% in relation to last September and a hike of 2.7% in relation to October 2003. The industry accumulates growth of 8.3% in the year and 7.4% in the last twelve months.

In October, the indexes of industrial production presented fall (-0.4%) compared to the previous month, in the series without seasonal influences. In the other comparisons, the industrial production grew 2.7% compared to October 2003, accumulated 8.3% from January to October 2004 and 7.4% in the last twelve months.

The reduction of the industrial production in relation to September shows the trend observed in fourteen of the twenty-three activities with seasonally adjusted series. The major negative pressures came from food products (-3.0%), rubber and plastic (-6.4%), automotive vehicles (-1.7%) and perfumery (-6.3%). Among the eight groups of industry that grew, the most important contributions came from petroleum refining and alcohol production (2.8%), other chemicals (1.9%), machines and electrical materials (4.0%) and metal products (1.2%).

The negative trend of the production, still in the comparison with September, was generalized, and was observed in the four categories of use. The more striking fall was observed in the segment of durable consumer goods (-2.3%), which, in September, had already fell 2.0%. This sector came from six consecutive months of expansion (period August04/ February 04), when it accumulated a rate of 16.2%. The sector of capital goods (-1.3%) also shows the second consecutive fall (-4.5% in September), after expansion of 11.9% in the period August 04/February 04. The production of intermediate goods (-0.1%), segment that has the major participation in the industrial structure, remained virtually stable. The segment of semidurable and nondurable consumer goods, after recording in September its highest growth rate in the year (1.5%), fell again (-1.1%).

In October, the quarterly moving average index, which had increased since March 2004, presented stability in the level of production (0.1% compared to September). In the analysis by categories of use, the sectors of intermediate goods (0.0%) and of semidurable and nondurable consumer goods (0.0%) accompanied the overall stability, while capital goods (-1.7%) and durable consumer goods (-0.7%) dropped.

Production grew in relation to October 2003

In the comparison with October of the previous year, the global production of the industry grew 2.7%, with seventeen activities sustaining positive rates. This same indicator increased 7.4% in September, presenting growth in twenty-three activities. Besides the influence of the high base of comparison, due to the fact that in the final months of 2003 the production was stressing its increase, we can observe that in last October there were less working days (20) than in October of 2003 (23). In the indexes by categories of use, this deceleration was significantly relevant in the segments of capital goods (0.4%, its lowest rate since September 2003), and in durable consumer goods (9.0%, its lowest rhythm since March 2004). These two sectors, precisely the leaders of the recovery initiated in the second semester of 2003, were the ones that most were impacted by the high base of comparison.

Still in relation to October 2003, the performance of durable consumer goods (9.0%) was supported more by the production of automobiles (14.9%), than by the production of household appliances (8.7%). The performance of capital goods (0.4%) was influenced by the negative results of the sub sectors of capital goods of mixed use (-19.7%) and capital goods for agriculture (-3.8%), which did not allow a more expressive growth of the category, although the other sub sectors grew, specially: capital goods for industrial use (15.2%), capital goods for transport (15.7%) and capital goods for construction (36.6%).

The segment of intermediate goods showed positive indexes in almost all its sub sectors, specially elaborated industrial inputs (4.0%) and production of vehicle pieces (26.5%). Although growing 1.2%, the manufacturing of inputs for construction recorded its lowest rate since March 2004. The main negative impacts came from elaborated beverages and food products for industry (-4.5%) due to the fall (-7.3%) in the item white plantation sugar; and from basic fuels and lubricants (-1.0%). The sector of semidurable and nondurable consumer goods (-0.3%) was the only one to fall compared to October 2003. The trend of deceleration in the monthly indicator also can be observed in the indexes by sub sectors: considering the 76 surveyed sub sectors, 47 grew in October, against 61 in September.

Accumulated index in the year grows in 26 of 27 activities

In the accumulated index for the period January- October, the overall rate of 8.3% results from positive performances in 26 of 27 activities. Edition and printing, with recoil of 1.1%, was the only group of industry with a drop in the production. The main positive contribution to the overall result continues to be observed in automotive vehicles (30.2%), followed by machines and equipment (17.8%) and electronic material and communication equipment (18.7%). Considering products, the highlights in these industries were vehicles and trucks; refrigerators and motor graders; and television sets and mobile telephones. In the analysis by categories of use, the sectors that were leading the growth were durable consumer goods (22.7%) and capital goods (21.8%), with an expansion carried on in a rhythm 2.5 times above the overall average of the industry. The segment of intermediate goods grew 7.3% and semidurable and nondurable consumer goods grew 3.5%.

Resuming, the indexes of October show a trend of mild reduction in the rhythm of the industrial activity in the margin, which carries the quarterly average moving index towards a trend of stability. In the comparisons with the end of 2003 the deceleration is more significant, due to the high base of comparison and to the calendar (less working days in October 2004).