IBGE conducted in October 2013 the first estimate of the area and production of the harvest of 2014. The production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2014 was estimated in 184.2 million metric tons, 1.4% lower than the overall production in 2013. The expected area to be harvested was 53.6 million hectares, an area 1.8% larger than that harvested in 2013. Despite the increase, the expected volume of production will drop due to the option of planting soybeans and cotton instead of the more productive corn - 1st crop.

The tenth estimate of the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds added up to 186.8 million metric tons, 15.4% up over that of 2012 (161.9 million metric tons) and 126,403 metric tons less than the estimate of September (-0.1%). The area to be harvested in 2013, 52.7 million hectares, represented an increase of 8.0% over the harvested area in 2012 (48.8 million hectares) and a reduction of 15,525 hectares over the forecast of the previous month (-0.0%). Rice, corn and soybeans were the three main products in this group, which altogether represented 93.0% of the production estimate and accounted for 86.2% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year, there were area increases of 7.6% for corn, 11.2% for soybeans and a 0.6% decrease in the rice harvested area. Concerning production, the rises were of 2.7% for rice, 12.9% for corn and 23.8% for soybeans in comparison with 2012.

The complete publication can be accessed at www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa.

The production of grains registered the following regional distribution: Central-West, 78.4 million metric tons; South, 72.1 million metric tons; Southeast, 19.6 million metric tons; Northeast, 12.1 million metric tons; and North, 4.6 million metric tons. The comparison with the last harvest registered increases of 10.7% in the Central-West Region, 30.5% in the South, 1.9% in the Southeast and 2.2% in the Northeast. The North Region recorded a decrease of 3.1%. In the 2013 assessment, Mato Grosso led the national production of grains with a contribution of 24.6%, followed by Paraná (19.4%) and Rio Grande do Sul (15.8%). These states altogether accounted for 59.8% of the national forecast.

October 2013 estimate in relation to the production in 2012

Among the 26 selected products, 15 increased the estimated production over 2012: peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (12.5%), paddy rice (2.7%), potatoes - 1st crop (2.5%), potatoes - 2nd crop (7.9%), cacao nuts (1.9%), sugarcane (6.2%), barley grain (7.3%), bean seed - 2nd crop (20.3%), bean seed - 3rd crop (4.2%), corn grain - 1st crop (3.2%), corn grain - 2nd crop (21.4%), soybean grain (23.8%), sorghum grain (0.7%), wheat grain (11.5%) and triticale grain (3.7%). Eleven products registered negative changes: upland cottonseed (31.3%), peanuts in the shell - 2nd crop (13.2%), oat grain (4.0%), potatoes - 3rd crop (10.7%), coffee beans (arabica) (4.3%), coffee beans (canephora) (14.6%), onions (3.2%), bean seed - 1st crop (8.9%), oranges (14.2%), castor beans (43.0%) and cassava (11.3%).

In absolute numbers, the most significant increases in the production compared with the 2012 harvest were: sugarcane, soybeans, corn and wheat. Also in absolute numbers, the biggest negative changes in the annual comparison were: cassava, upland cotton and oranges.

Highlights in the estimate of October over September 2013

In the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production of October, the following changes in the production estimates stood out compared with September: sugarcane  (-0.6%), beans - 2nd crop (1.3%), cassava (-0.8%), corn - 2nd crop (-0.4%) and wheat (1.1%).

SUGARCANE - The estimated overall production of sugarcane in October was 712.4 million metric tons, a reduction of 0.6% (4.4 million metric tons) over the previous month. This result reflected the reassessment of the average yield in Minas Gerais and Mato Grosso do Sul, which were hit by shortfalls of rain and frosts, respectively. In addition, some sugarcane plants have been facing financial difficulties, thus investing less in crops and crippling activities. In São Paulo, the biggest overall producer, the excess of rain has been hindering the harvest and reducing the quality of the feedstock. The producers have also been receiving less for the metric ton of sugarcane. In Mato Grosso do Sul, the drop in the productivity (7.7%) was due to the frosts in July, which affected the growth and quality of the sugarcane crops.

BEAN SEED - Considering the three crops, the estimated overall production of beans was 2,960,401 metric tons, 0.5% bigger than that reported in September. By rising 2.8%, which represented an increase of 14,421 metric tons, the Northeast Region was the main responsible for the growth. The first crop of beans accounted for 37.5% of the overall production, the second crop, for 45.4% and the third, for 17.1%. The estimated production of bean seed - 2nd crop was 1.344.927 metric tons, recording an increase of 1.3% over September. This increase was mainly due to the changing figures in Pernambuco (3.1%) and Bahia (14.8%). Ceará reduced the expected production by 5.3% due to the continuous drought.

CASSAVA - The estimate of the production of cassava in 2013 was 20,763,863 metric tons, pointing to a drop of 0.8% over September. The planted and harvested areas, as well as the average yield were reduced by 0.4%.  The effects of the drought started in 2012 still persisted in some states of the Northeast, causing the reduction of 0.3% in the area to be harvested and of 1.2% in the average yield. The expected production was 4,376,812 metric tons, 1.5% lower than that of the previous report. The estimated production fell 15.6% in Ceará, 3.0% in Rio Grande do Norte and 1.0% in Alagoas. Responsible for 35.4% of the overall production of cassava, the North Region registered a reduction of 1.1% in the estimated harvest this month, due to the reassessment of the production in Rondônia, which forecast a reduction of 15.4% in the production.  In the Southeast, Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo reported a reduction of 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively. As to the Central-West, Mato Grosso do Sul reported a reduction of 0.9% in the production, due to a lower yield. The South Region expected a slightly negative change, as Rio Grande do Sul recorded a decrease of 0.2% and the other states posted no change.  The price of the metric ton remained high this month, registering figures above R$ 400,00 in some regions of Brazil (CEPEA), which reflected the smaller supply of the product.

CORN GRAIN - According to the October survey and considering the two harvests, the estimated production of corn grain was 80,517,294 metric tons, maintaining the estimate of a record harvest. Considering the total volume of production, 34,284,275 metric tons (42.6%) were of corn grain - 1st crop and 46,233,019 metric tons (57.4%) were of corn grain - 2nd crop. The producers invested in the second crop of corn as the market was practicing good prices at planting time. In addition, corn is a culture that successfully replaces that of soybeans and was suitable for that planting time. The estimated production of corn - 2nd crop in October reduced by 0.4% in relation to September and should reach 46.2 million metric tons. The planted area increased 0.2% and the average yield decreased 0.4%, changing from 5,219 to 5,197 kg/ha. Bahia reported an estimated increase of 14.6%, which represented 88,743 metric tons. Mato Grosso do Sul reduced the estimate in 265,795 metric tons, which represented a reduction of 3.6%.

WHEAT GRAIN - The expected production in October was 4,885,846 metric tons, covering a planted area of 2,187,416 ha with an expected average yield of 2,235 kg/ha. The planted area, production and average yield were respectively 0.5%, 1.1% and 0.6% higher when compared with the previous month. As the biggest producer and accounting for 95.1% of the national production, the South Region expected a production of 4,645,453 metric tons, in a planted area of 2,101,797 ha and with an expected average yield of 2,210 kg/ha, respectively 1.2%, 0.6% and 0.6% higher than those reported in the previous month. Paraná expected a production of 1,710,677 metric tons and an average yield of 1,749 kg/ha, respectively 0.4% and 0.5% lower than the information from the previous month, whereas the planted area of 978,348 ha was 0.1% higher. The smaller estimate for the production of wheat when compared with the 2012 harvest was due to the bad climate conditions during the growth of the culture. As the harvest drew near its final phase, it was expected that approximately 65% of the estimated area have been harvested until the end of the reference period.  By producing 55.6% of the overall production, Rio Grande do Sul, the first national producer, expected a production of 2,716,976 metric tons, in a planted area of 1,050,849 ha and with an average yield of 2,586 kg/ha, respectively 2.4%, 1.0% and 1.4% higher when compared with the previous month.

Prospects for the agricultural production of 2014

This first estimate was carried out through field surveys and calculated projections. The information accounted for 61.1% of the estimated national production, while the projections accounted for 38.9% of the estimated overall.  Among the ten more important products for the next summer harvest, three of them registered significant changes: beans - 1st crop (19.2%), cotton (11.7%) and soybeans (6.1%). Other products also recorded positive changes: rice (4.0%), potatoes - 1st crop (0.1%), tobacco (2.2%) and cassava (4.6%). On the other hand, peanuts - 1st crop (-8.1%), onions (-6.6%) and corn - 1st crop (-7.1%) posted a negative change.  As to the estimated area, the products that registered a positive change were beans - 1st crop (11.9%), soybeans (2.7%), upland cotton (10.6%), peanuts - 1st crop (0.4%), rice (1.3%), potatoes - 1st crop (0.8%), tobacco (1.0%) and cassava (44.2%). The products expected to reduce the production were onions (1.6%) and corn - 1st crop (0.6%).

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA).

Due to users’ needs of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals, Legumes and Oilseeds (cotton seed, peanut, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybean, oat, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in October, 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.