The national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds points to an output of 146.8 million metric tons...

January estimate versus 2010 output

Among the twenty-five products selected, tem recorded positive changes in the production estimate compared to the previous year: herbaceous cotton seed (53,7%), paddy rice (13.5%), 1st harvest potatoes (16.3%), 2nd harvest potatoes (9.1%), 1st harvest beans (grain) (41.0%), 2nd harvest beans (grain) (1.7%), castor beans in bagasse (93.5%), cassava (9.1%), sorghum (grain) (10.1%) and triticale (grain) (17.8%).

With negative changes feature: 1st harvest peanuts in the shell (21.3%), 2nd harvest peanuts in the shell  (16.2%), oats (grain) (24.5%),  3rd harvest potatoes (5.3%), cacao beans  (4.1%), coffee beans (9.2%), sugarcane (3.3%), onions (2.4%), barley (grain) (10.9%), 3rd harvest beans (grain) (9.6%), oranges (0.1%), 1st harvest corn (grain) (3.6%), 2nd harvest corn (grain) (12.3%), soybeans (1.2%), wheat (18.3%).

It is worth mentioning that, for the 2nd and 3rd harvests of certain products and for winter crops (wheat, oats, rye and barley) – which due to the agricultural calendar do not allow the evaluation of production yet – the data correspond to prospects obtained from data of previous years.

HERBACEOUS COTTON (seed) – The first estimate of herbaceous cotton for 2011 is 4.5 million metric tons versus the 2.9 million metric tons obtained in 2010, pointing to increment of 53.7%. This recent survey reinforces the former trend, especially due to the increase of area, by 43.7% versus the 28.8% recorded in the last estimate. A reason for this behavior can be the good prices of this product, both in the internal and external market. It is important to mention that Mato Grosso (the main producer, with 55.0% of the national output) increased its planting area by 55.3%. Part of this increase occurred in areas planted with 2nd harvest corn. The expected area is 652.368 ha, and, in this state, the planting period goes up to February. At the moment, in case the average yield reaches the expected 2,797 kg/ha, the estimated output of Mato Grosso, 2.476.745 t, will have surpassed by 70.3% the production of 2010. Except for Alagoas, which recorded insignificant participation in production, there were increases in other producing centers, mainly in Bahia, the second major national producer, which recorded increase of 19.5% in area and 25.7% in production.

PEANUTS (in the shell) - 1st harvest – The area to be harvested with peanuts, in the group of participant states, is 68,675 ha, 1.3% more than in the previous harvest. The expected production is 161,728 t, 21.3% below the amount harvested in the 2010, which reached 205,599 t. São Paulo, the major national producer, kept the figures of the third estimate. In spite of technological advances related to the variety and mechanization of harvesting, this crop has not yet reached the same level of others in the country. Although sugar cane reforming areas are adopted for peanut planting, that makes the harvesting of this legume subject to the availability of sugarcane areas eradicated after 5 consecutive harvests, what may not occur, depending on market conditions and mainly on production costs.

PADDY RICE – With reference to rice crops, in this first survey of 2011, the expected production is 12.9 million metric tons, 13.5% above that of 2010. This evaluation practically keeps the scenario predicted of the third prospect, conducted in December, of an output of 12.8 million metric tons. The increase is mainly due to the contribution of Rio Grande do Sul, the main producer, with 63.9% of participation in the national production. In this evaluation, the state recorded increase of 18.7% in the expected production and of 6.4% in planted area, versus figures in 2010. In Rio Grande do Sul there was recovery of areas that could not be covered in the 2010 harvest, due to the rainy weather during the planting period.

POTATOES (1st harvest) – For 1st harvest potatoes, the area directed to the harvesting of 72,915 is 8.4% bigger than in 2010, even considering the fall of potato prices observed in the second semester of this same year. In case the expected average yield of 24,505 kg/ha is reached, the estimated production may go up to 1,786,552 metric tons, having increased 16.3% versus the amount obtained in the same period of 2010. Minas Gerais is the main producing Federation Unit in this first harvest, having contributed with 33.5% of the production volume, followed by Paraná (27.9%), Rio Grande do Sul (19.0%) and São Paulo (14.8%).

COFFEE (beans) – The first estimate of coffee production in 2011 amounts to 2,598,935 t, or 43.3 million 60kg sacks of this product as processed beans. The percentage of decrease in relation to 2010 is 9.2%. The area directed to harvesting is 2,147,518 ha, 0.6% smaller than that in 2010. The total area covered with this crop in the country has decreased by 1.3%. The decrease expected in production, compared to the amount harvested in 2010 reflects, mainly, the particular aspect of Arabic coffee, a predominant type in the country (70%), of alternate periods of low and high productivity. On the other hand, Conilon coffee, which is characterized for its hardiness and is planted in lower and hotter areas, is planted under irrigation, causing this feature not to be so visible.

The blooming of the 2011 harvest has occurred in a regular way and has not been affected by the lack of rain, what would be harmful for coffee production. It was possible to see the occurrence of satisfactory rain levels after the formation of flower-buds, except for later negative occurrences. The phenomenon La Niña apparently, has not shown its negative effects, such as significant decrease of rain in coffee producing areas of the Southeast, once precipitation came back to normal in September. This way, the new production cycle starts the year affected by the biennial status of coffee. It is important to highlight that rain and temperature are expected to remain under normal conditions, in January and February, and that dry spells do not occur. This phenomenon, in fact, depending on its intensity and duration, may be harmful to coffee. 

BEANS (grain) - 1st harvest – For 1st harvest beans, the production expected for 2011 is about 2.2 million metric tons, surpassing the amount produced in 2010 by 41.0%. The good prices of this product, in the planting period, stimulated production, resulting in a planted area of 2.5 million hectares, 13.9% bigger than that of 2010. Considering regular weather conditions, the expected average yield of 870 kg/ha will be 14.2% bigger than in the previous year. It is worth mentioning that, in the Northeast, this crop was severely affected by drought in 2010. Even so, the current prospect points to increase of 162.5%. In Paraná, the main producer, with 24.7% of the expected national output, the area to be harvested 340,272 ha and the estimated production (541,562 t) are 5.8% and 10.8% bigger than in 2010, respectively. Harvesting activities in the state remain; in this survey almost half of the expected area has already been harvested.

CASSAVA (roots) – The national production of cassava for 2011, regardless of the destination of root production during data collection, is evaluated as 27.1 million metric tons, with a positive change of 9.1% in relation to the 2010 harvest. The prices of cassava for industry increased throughout the year of 2010, causing the area directed to planting, of 1.9 million hectares, to present increase of 3.9% when compared to the area harvested in 2010.

CORN (grain) – 1st harvest – An output of 32.1 million metric tons is expected for corn, an amount 3.6% smaller than that in 2010, due to the 6.8% decrease estimated for average yield and with an almost stable planted area (with increase of 0.1% only). The unfavorable prospects result from the low prices of this product throughout 2010, due to the volume in stock and the high production costs. In the South Region, the major producer, the planted area of 2.4 million hectares and the expected production of 13.7 million metric tons were 8.4% and 15.3% smaller, respectively, in comparison with figures of last year. Paraná shows significant decrease of planted area (-19.5%) as a result of factors mentioned above and also due to option for 2^nd harvest corn crops made by producers, and preference for soybeans in the summer. The expected production of 5.3 million metric tons is 22.9% smaller, for an estimated average yield of 7,261 kg/ha, 4.2% less than the figure obtained in 2010. With such decrease in the Paraná harvest, Minas Gerais has become the biggest producer of 1st harvest milk, with an estimated production of 6.1 million metric tons. In spite of the 0.7% decrease, the expected production is 3.5% above that of last year, in this state.

SOYBEANS (grain) – In 2011, the expected production of soybeans is 67.6 million metric tons, with negative change of 1.2% compared to the total amount obtained in 2010. The area to be harvested points to increase of 1.5%, whereas the expected average yield records decrease of 2.8% being, respectively, 23.7 million hectares and 2,858 kg/ha. As shown in initial prospects, this crop occupied additional areas, notably areas previously explored with corn, due to the higher prices and higher liquidity of soybeans. With reference to yield, the decrease reflects unfavorable climatic prospects, a dry period due to the phenomenon La Niña. So far, the South Region is the only one to record decrease of this variable (-8.9%). In Mato Grosso early-produced soybeans faced drought in the planting period, considering the main producing area of the state, the middle North. Nevertheless, the varieties of long planting, planted afterwards, are being benefited by the rain, mainly now in the phase that corresponds to grain filling. There is also good luminosity, so there is a prospect of a very productive harvest. In the period of the survey, about 1% of the estimated area had been harvested and this activity will be more intense in January, going on until April. The area to be harvested, of 6.3 million metric tons, and the expected production of 19.8 million metric tons record, in comparison with 2010, increase of 1.6% and 5.6%, respectively. In Paraná the second producing center in the country, the area to be harvested (4.5 million hectares) remained stable (+0.2%). The expected production of 13.8 million metric tons is 2.1% smaller than that of 2010, a year of excellent climatic conditions and a record average yield of 3,139 kg/ha. Anyway, despite La Niña, the estimated average yield is 3.066 kg/ha, 2.3% lower than in 2010.

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¹ Due to the needs of users of crop data, surveys relative to cereals, legumes and oilseeds have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA) as a sequence to a process of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops, which started in October 2007.

² Cotton seed, peanut, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybean, oat, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale.

³ The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, of which information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). These commissions are consolidated at state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA).

The national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds points to an output of 146.8 million metric tons, 1.8% below the figure in 2010 (149.5 million metric tons), but 0.7% above the amount estimated in December 2010 (145.8 million metric tons). This is the prospect presented by the first edition of the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production in 2011. The area to be harvested in 2011, of 48.2 million hectares, presents increase of 3.4% when compared to the area harvested in 2010. The three main crops, rice, corn and soybeans,  represent 90.4% of the cereal, legumes and oilseeds produced and amounted to a total 81.9% of the area to be harvested – with positive changes of 2.5%, 1.0% and 1.5%, respectively, versus the previous year. In terms of production, corn and soybeans recorded, respectively, decreases of 7.1% and 1.2%, whereas rice recorded increase of 13.5%. it is worth mentioning that, considering Summer crops only (herbaceous cotton, 1st harvest peanuts, rice, beans, 1st harvest beans, castor beans, 1st harvest corn and soybeans, the expected production for this group of grains (117.8 million metric tons) has surpassed by 1.0% that of the same group in 2010 (116.7 million metric tons).

Among the Major Regions, this volume of cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced presents the following distribution:  South, 58.5 million metric tons; Central West, 52.2 million metric tons; Southeast, 17.1 million metric tons; Northeast, 15.0 million metric tons and North, 4.1 million metric tons.  Compared to the previous harvest, there are increments in the North (2.7%) and Northeast (26.6%) and decreases in the South (8.8%), Central West (0.6%) and of only -174 metric tons in the Southeast.

It is possible to see from the picture that Mato Grosso, in this first evaluation for 2011, leads the ranking as the main national grain producer, with participation of 20.6%. It is followed by Paraná, with 19.3% and Rio Grande do Sul, with 16.2%, states which represent 56.1% of the national total.