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From February to March, industrial employment fell by 0.6%

May 12, 2009 09h00 AM | Last Updated: August 21, 2018 03h49 PM

 

The rate refers to the seasonally adjusted series. Compared to March 2008, there was decrease of 5.0% in the employed population, the worst result since the beginning of the survey (2001). The decrease of the index accumulated in the year reached 4.0%. The number of hour paid (without seasonal influences) fell 0.9% in relation to February 2009. Compared to March 2008, the decline was 5.6%, accumulating, in the year, 5.0% of decrease. In terms of real payroll, there was decrease of 2.5% from February to March 2009 (with seasonal adjustment). Compared to March 2008, the result was -2.2%, and, in the year, there was stability (0.0%).

 

SALARIED EMPLOYED PERSONS

 

In March, in the series without seasonal influences, industrial employment decreased 0.6% in relation to the immediately previous month, the second consecutive negative result, accumulating decrease of 5.8% compared to October last year. The quarterly moving average index kept a sequence of five negative rates, with decrease of 1.1% in March.

 

Compared to March 2008, the decrease of 5.0% in terms of the employed population was the worst result in the time series. The indicator accumulated in the last twelve months, which changed from 1.0% in February to 0.3% in March, contributed to the downward trend which started in August last year. In the quarterly analysis, the index accumulated in January-March decreased by 4.0% compared to the same period of 2008. Employed fell 3.9% in relation to the rate in the immediately previous quarter – seasonally adjusted series – and accumulated decrease of 5.0% in the last few quarters. 

 

In terms of the monthly indicator, the number of workers was 5.0% lower than in March 2008; the decrease reached the fourteen areas and fourteen subsectors surveyed. São Paulo (-4.0%), Northeast and Central West Region (-8.6%) and Minas Gerais (-6.2%) exerted the most significant negative contributions. In these areas, the segments which most contributed to the decrease of employment were: machinery and equipment (-10.3%) and metal products (-11.5%) in the industry of São Paulo state; wood (-27.2%) and food products and beverages (-3.6%) in the North and Central West Region; and means of transportation (-15.0%) and apparel (-9.7%) in the industry of Minas Gerais.

 

In terms of subsectors, in the country, the main negative highlights were apparel (-8.6%), machinery and equipment (8.2%), footwear and leather articles (-10.3%) and means of transportation (-7.0%). On the other hand, paper and graphics (7.0%), petroleum refining and alcohol production (3.5%), non-metallic minerals (0.8%) and mining and quarrying industry (0.5%) accounted for the positive contributions.

 

The index accumulated in the first three months of the year decreased 4.0%, with decline in the fourteen areas surveyed, mainly affected by the reduction of employment in São Paulo (-3.2%), North and Central West Region (-6.7%) and Minas Gerais (-4.5%). By subsector, thirteen areas had negative results, and the main contributions to the overall rate came from apparel (-8.6%), footwear and leather articles (-10.1%), wood (-14.6%) and rubber and plastic (-7.3%). On the other hand, paper and printing (3.2%), petroleum refining and alcohol production (6.0%) and non-metallic minerals (1.7%) were the most relevant positive contributions.

 

In the comparison quarter versus same quarter in the previous year, industrial employment was clearly on a downward trend: it changed from 2.5% in the third quarter of 2008 to 0.2% in the following quarter and reached -4.0% in the first quarter this year, the lowest index in the time series for this kind of comparison. It is worth mentioning that the negative result of the first three months of 2009 interrupts a sequence of ten quarters with positive rates. The deceleration between the last two periods reached the fourteen areas and seventeen subsectors. In the analysis by sector, in terms of participation, the most significant decreases occurred in machinery and equipment, which changed from 5.8% in October-December to -4.4% in January-March; means of transportation (from 4.0% to -4.5%) and food products and beverages (from 1.3% to -1.6%). Among the areas, the highlights were: Minas Gerais (from 2.9% to -4.5%), North Region and Central West Region (from -0.2% to -6.7%) and Rio Grande do Sul (from 0.8% to -5.1%). São Paulo, with increase of 0.5% in the fourth quarter last year, had -3.2% in the first quarter this year.

 

NUMBER OF HOURS PAID

 

The number of hours paid to industry workers, in March, decreased by 0.9% in relation to that of February, in the series without seasonal influences; it was the sixth consecutive negative result, with accumulated loss of 6.6% in the period. As a consequence, the quarterly moving average indicator kept the downward trend which started in September, and had decrease of 1.0% between February and March. Also in the seasonally adjusted series, in the comparison quarter versus immediately previous quarter, the number of hours paid fell by 4.0% in the firs quarter of the year, accelerating the rhythm of decrease compared to the result of the last quarter last year (-1.7%).  

 

The comparison with the same month in the previous year showed decrease of 5.6%, the fifth consecutive negative rate. The indicator accumulated in the first quarter of the year was negative (-5.0%0 and, considering the indicator accumulated in the last twelve months, the decrease of 0.1% is the first negative result since July 2004 (-0.2%), keeping the downward trend observed since September 2008.

 

The number of hours paid, according to the monthly index, decreased by 5.6%, with negative rates in all the fourteen areas and in fourteen of the eighteen subsectors surveyed. In terms of subsectors, the main negative contributions came from food products and beverages (-4.1%), machinery and equipment (-9.5%), means of transportation (-8.7%), apparel (-8.3%), footwear and leather articles (-9.3%) and rubber and plastic (-9.4%). On the other hand, paper and printing (5.5%), non-metallic minerals (1.9%) and petroleum refining and alcohol production (6.1%) accounted for the major positive contributions.

 

Also compared to March 2008, the areas with the main negative contributions were São Paulo (-4.7%), North and Central West Region (-9.1%), Minas Gerais (-6.1%), Rio Grande do Sul (-7.5%) and Northeast Region (-4.8%). In São Paulo, there was decrease of the number of hours paid in fourteen subsectors, especially machinery and equipment (-11.7%), rubber and plastic (-12.1%) and means of transportation (-8.0%). In the North and Central West Regions, the highlights were the decreases observed in wood (-26.9%), electronic machine, appliances and equipment (-20.5%) and food products and beverages (-3.4%). In Minas Gerais and in Rio Grande do Sul, means of transportation (-15.3%), in the former location, and footwear and leather articles (-11.6%) and means of transportation (-13.4%), in the second, accounted for the major negative contributions. In the Northeast Region, food products and beverages had the most significant decrease (-8.3%).

 

The indicator accumulated in the first quarter of 2009 decreased 5.0%, with overall decrease reaching all the areas and fourteen subsector. The most significant contributions negative impacts came from São Paulo (-4.4%), North and Central West Region (-7.9%), Rio Grande do Sul (-6.6%), Minas Gerais (-4.8%) and Northeast Region (-4.2%). In the analysis by subsector, the main decreases in the number of hour paid occurred in: apparel (-9.1%), food products and beverages (-3.2%), means of transportation (-7.7%), footwear and leather articles (-10.3%) and machinery and equipment (-7.0%). On the other hand, the main positive contributions among the subsectors came from paper and printing (2.8%) and petroleum refining and alcohol production (8.1%).

 

In the analysis by quarter, after having positive rates in the first three quarters of 2008 (3.2%, 2.4% and 2.5%), there was significant worsening of decrease between the last quarter of last year (0.2%) and the first this year (-5.0%), being all the comparisons relative to the same quarter of the previous year. The reduction of the number of hours paid from the period October-December 2008 to the first quarter of 2009 occurred in sixteen subsectors and in all the areas surveyed. Among the activities, the main decreases were those of machinery and equipment, which changed from 5.2% in the former period to -7.0% in the latter, means of transportation (from 2.6% to -7.7%) and metallurgy (from 7.6% to -1.9%), whereas among the areas, Minas Gerais (from 3.0% to -4.8%), Northeast and Central West Region (from -0.9% to -7.9%) and Rio Grande do Sul (from -0.3% to -6.6%) faced most deceleration between the tow periods.

 

The evolution of the quarterly moving average index for production, employed persons and number of hours paid has shown signs of recovery in the last few months, more clearly seen in industrial production, which already presents a positive sign (1.6%), and slight changes in the number of hours paid and employed persons, which, however, remain negative.

 

 

REAL PAYROLL

 

In March, the real payroll of industry, in the series without seasonal influences, fell 2.5% in relation to the immediately previous month, after increase of 1.9% in February. The quarterly moving average index, in the quarters ending in February and March, decreased by 0.8%, the fifth consecutive negative result, in a period with accumulated decrease of 3.7%. Also in the series with seasonal adjustment, in the comparison month versus immediately previous month, the value of payroll presents decrease of 2.5% in the first three quarters of the year, and  bigger decrease in relation to the result of the last quarter of 2008 (-0.6%).

 

Compared to the same month in the previous year, real payroll decreased by 2.2%, whereas the indicator accumulated in the first three months of the year was stable (-0.0%). The annualized rate, the index accumulated in the last 12 months, increased 4.4%, but faced slight reduction compared to the January (5.5%) and February results (5.3%).

 

In the March 09/March 08 comparison, real payroll decreased 2.2%, with reduction in seven of the fourteen areas surveyed. The main negative contributions came from São Paulo (-4.0%), Minas Gerais (-4.8%) and Rio Grande do Sul (-4.5%). In the São Paulo industry, the main negative impacts came from means of transportation (-14.2%) and machinery and equipment (-7.8%), whereas in Minas Gerais, the main decreases occurred in metallurgy (-9.3%) and means of transportation (-8.5%). In Rio Grande do Sul, the most significant negative influence came from means of transportation (-18.5%). On the other hand, Rio de Janeiro (5.1%) accounted for the major positive impact on the national average, mainly affected by the expansion observed in mining and quarrying industry (15.1%).

 

In the analysis by subsector and also compared to the same month in the previous year, real payroll decreased in twelve of the eighteen subsectors surveyed, being the highlights means of transportation (-11.7%) and machinery and equipment (-5.4%). On the other hand, the most significant increases came from paper and printing (18.5%) and mining and quarrying industry (12.1%). The indicator accumulated in the first quarter of 2009, compared to the same period last year, remained stable (0.0%), with predominance of negative results reaching eleven subsectors. Electronic machines and communication equipment (-6.7%), means of transportation (-2.5%) and rubber and plastic (-7.1%) accounted for the main negative impacts. On the other hand, among the subsectors with increase of real payroll, the main highlight was mining and quarrying industry (23.6%).

 

Eight areas had positive rates in the first quarter of the year, being the highlight Espírito Santo (13.9%) and Rio de Janeiro (2.3%), both stimulated by increases observed in mining and quarrying industry. On the other hand, São Paulo, with decrease of 1.3%, accounted for the main negative contribution.

In the analysis by quarter, the real payroll index was stable in the first quarter of the year (0.0%), with clear reduction compared to the result of the last quarter last year (4.3%) - both comparisons refer to the same period in the previous year. To this result contributed eleven areas and fourteen subsectors, being the highlights the falling results in Paraná (from 6.4% to -0.8%), Minas Gerais (from 8.0% to 1.6%), São Paulo (from 4.5% to -1.3%) and Pernambuco (from 4.6% to -1.0%), whereas in terms of activities deceleration came from non-metallic minerals (from 15.1% to -1.3%), electronic machines and communication equipment (from 4.7% to -6.7%), means of transportation (from 6.5% to -2.5%) and metal products (from12.9% to 3.3%).