Retail trade in the country had, in March, increase rates of 1.1% for volume of sales and 1.2% for nominal revenue of sales, in the month/previous month seasonally adjusted comparison. In the series without adjustment, the rates for volume of sales were 11.5% in comparison with March/06, 9.7% accumulated in the first three months of the year, and 7.3% accumulated in the last 12 months. Nominal revenue increased 11.6% in relation to the same month in the previous year, 9.8% in the first quarter of the year and 7.7% in the last 12 months. 

With changes of 1.1% and 1.2% registered in March by volume and nominal revenue of sales, respectively, retail trade keeps on with a positive result in relation to the seasonally adjusted rate of the previous month. Therefore, the growing trend of the quarterly moving average of the fixed-base indicator remained. Still considering the seasonally adjusted series, which is calculated for four of the eight activities which form the sector, the results for volume of sales were: -0.1% for Fuels and lubricants; 1.2% for Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco; 1.3% for Furniture and household appliances and 2.7% for Textiles, apparel and footwear. In the same comparison, the subsector Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces, which is part of extended retail trade, had positive change of 4.4%.

In the comparison March 07/March 06, all the retail trade activities had increase in the volume of sales, whose rates, by order of importance to the overall result, were: 9.3% for Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco; 18.1% for  Furniture and household appliances; 26.6% for Other articles of personal and domestic use; 7.0% for Fuels and lubricants; 9.9% for Textiles , apparel and footwear; 24.9% for Office and computer material and communication equipment; 5.7% for Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic and perfumery articles and cosmetics and 9.3% for Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery articles.

EFFECTS ON THE MONTH’S RESULTS

As the major contributor to the overall result, the subsector Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco had increase of 9.3% in the volume of sales, in comparison with the previous year. This result accounted for about 42% of the retail trade rate. The accumulated rates of this subsector were 7.1% and 8.0% in the first quarter of the year and in the last twelve months, respectively.  This performance reflects the increase of the population’s purchasing power, which resulted, mainly, from the increase of salary mass. It is also important to point out the influence of the Easter’s period on this result, once the date occurred in the first week of April. 

In March, the subsectors Furniture and household articles accounted for the second major positive impact on the volume of sales in relation to March last year. This performance caused this subsector to represent 23% of the overall monthly rate. The accumulated results were as follows: 20.5% in the quarter and 12.4% in the last 12 months. This performance was a consequence of the continuation of favorable credit conditions, real income, employment and prices.

The activity Other articles of personal and domestic use, the third major  impact on the retail trade rate, changed by 26.6% in terms of volume of sales in relation to March 2006. Encompassing department stores, glasses shops, jewelry shops, sorting goods stores and toy stores, this activity had been affected by the overall improvement of economy. As a consequence, there have been accumulated rates of 21.8% and 19.2% relative to the first quarter of the year and relative to the last 12 months, respectively. It is worth mentioning the effect caused by the Easter’s holiday, which caused the sales of chocolate to rise in this period.

The activity Fuels and lubricants, the fourth biggest positive impact on the result of retail trade changed by 7.0% in the comparison March 07/March 06, and this was the third positive result after two consecutive years with falling rates. This can be seen as a consequence of the stabilization of prices of fuels in the last few months and of the improvement of economical conditions in the country. In relation to the accumulated results, the changes were 4.8% in the quarter and -5.0% in the last 12 months. 

The fifth biggest contribution to the overall result was that of the subsector Textiles, apparel and footwear, with change of 9.9% of volume of sales in relation to the same month in the previous year. The accumulated rates were 6.7% ,relative to the first quarter, and 2.3%, relative to the last 12 months.  

Office and computer material and communication equipment, the sixth biggest contribution, increased by 24.9% in  terms of volume of sales, in comparison with the same month in the previous year. The accumulated rates were 20.2% and 23.3%, in the first quarter of the year and in the last 12 months, respectively. Among the factors which led to this result are the reduction of prices in this subsector and the growing relevance of computer-related items and communication in the basket of households.

The activity Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic and perfumery articles and cosmetics, with the seventh biggest participation in the overall retail trade rate, had a result of 5.7% in comparison with March 2006, having accumulated rate of 5.3% in the quarter and of 3.7% in the last 12 months. The increase of salary mass and the diversity of products offered were the support for the development of this subsector.

The activity Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery articles accounted for the lowest impact o the retail trade result, in terms of volume of sales in comparison with the same month in the previous year (9.3%). This was probably a consequence of the increased sale of school material in the beginning of the year, as it is typical in this period. The increase rates accumulated in the quarter and in the last twelve months were 5.7% and 2.9%, respectively.

For extended retail trade, which is formed by retail trade and the activities of Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and Construction material, the changes observed in relation to the same month in the previous year were 13.2% relative to volume of sales and 12.8% relative to nominal revenue of sales. In terms of rates accumulated in the last 12 months, the subsector had change rates of 11.8% and 8.2% for volume of sales and 11.3% and 8.5% for nominal revenue of sales respectively.

Considering the volume of sales, the activity Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces had increase of 18.5% in relation to the same month in the previous year. The accumulated rates in the first quarter and in the last twelve months were, respectively, 17.4% and 10.8%. The acceleration decrease of interest rates throughout 2006 became one of the essential factors for the increase of sales in this subsector. With reference to Construction material, the changes were: 4.4% in the month, in relation to March 2006; 6.0% accumulated in the first three months of the year and 6.4% accumulated in the last twelve months. These results reflect, above all, the official measures of incentive for construction.

ANALYSIS BY AREA

All the 27 Federative Units had positive results had positive results in the comparison March 07/March 06. The highlights, with the main changes were: Alagoas (29.0%); Ceará (21.1%); Maranhão (20.6%); Roraima (18.0%) and Espírito Santo (17.3%) - Graph 3. Considering the participation in the formation of the retail trade rate, the highlights, in order, were: São Paulo (13.9%); Rio de Janeiro (6.9%); Minas Gerais (9.0%); Paraná (10.4%) and Rio Grande do Sul (6.1%).

Still considering the Federative Units, the seasonally adjusted results for volume of sales in the month/previous month comparison indicate there were 9 areas with negative rates and 18 areas with increase. The main increases occurred in Rio Grande do Norte (5.8%); Roraima (5.6%); Rondônia (5.1%) and Goiás (4.5%). The main falls were those which occurred in Acre (-3.1%); Mato Grosso do Sul (-2.7%); Alagoas (-2.2%) and Santa Catarina (-2.2%).

The highest rates in extended retail trade in terms of volume of sales were registered in Rondônia (49.2%); Acre (35.0%); Pará (34.9%); Amapá (32.0%) and Roraima (25.7%). In terms of impact on the overall result, the highlights were: São Paulo (13.4%); Rio de Janeiro (10.0%); Minas Gerais (11.9%); Paraná (11.1%) and Santa Catarina (12.7%). 

                                                   Graph 3

        Annual * rates by area of volume of retail trade sales by

                       position in relation to the national average

ANALYSIS BY QUARTER

The change (9.7%) in retail trade in the first quarter of year 2007 in comparison with the same period in 2006 surpassed the figure registered in the last quarter of 2006 (7.0%). The determining activities in this case were: Fuels and lubricants, which changed from -4.5% to 4.8%; Textiles, apparel and footwear (from 2.5% to 6.7%); Furniture and household appliances (from 11.8% to 20.5%); Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery articles (from -1.7% to 5.7%) and Other articles of personal and domestic use (from 18.9% to 21.8%). The activities Hypermarkets,

supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco and Office and computer material and communication equipment were stable in this latest quarter: 7.1% and 20.2%, respectively.

In terms of extended retail trade, the change rate of the quarter (11.8%), also surpassed the rate of the last quarter of 2006 (8.8%). This result was affected by the performance of the activity Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces, which changed from 12.6% to 17.4%. In the other activity which forms the sector, Construction material, there was the opposite situation, that is, decrease from 11.2% to 6.0%.