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Forecast of grain production increased by 1.2% due to 2nd harvest corn and wheat

May 10, 2007 09h00 AM | Last Updated: August 20, 2018 04h09 PM

According to the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production - LSPA , the national harvest of grains  - cereals, legumes and oilseeds - was estimated in 132.3 million tons in April, a volume 1.2% higher than the one estimated in March.  The gain of approximately 1.5 million tons came mainly from the crops of 2nd harvest corn (1,030,330 tons) and wheat (315,527 tons).   The area cultivated in 2007 must have a growth of only 0.1% in relation to the one of 2006, which represents 45.6 million hectares.  Among the analyzed products, soybeans and 1st harvest corn are the ones which have the major planted areas, respectively, 20.6 and 9.4 million hectares.

Among the crops of grains, it could observed, in April, in the comparison with March, increases in the estimates of production of herbaceous cotton in seed (2.9%), 1st harvest (0.3%) and 2nd harvest corn (7.4%), wheat (9.1%) and soybeans (0.5%). The LSPA registered, also, a diminishment in the estimate of rice in husk (-0.3%) and of beans in grain (-2.4%).

The production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds was distributed between the Major Regions in the following way: South, 58.6 million tons; Central West, 43.0 million tons; Southeast, 15.8 million tons; Northeast, 11.4 million tons and North, 3.4 million tons.  The national participation in percentage is in the graph below.

In relation to the harvest in general, the highlights in April were the variations in the estimates of production, comparatively to the month of March, of five products: coffee in grain (-2.4%), sugar cane (4.4%), orange (2.1%), 2nd harvest corn in grain (7.4%) and wheat in grain (9.1%).

The estimate of coffee in April was of 36.6 million sacks

In relation to the estimate of March, the numbers of this month show decrease of 2.4% in the production of coffee in grain. The yield reevaluation obtained in Minas Gerais and São Paulo, respectively, 1st and 3rd major state producers, answered for the major part of change in the data.  In Minas Gerais, in relation to March, the decrease was of 2.8%, and in São Paulo, of 16.5%.  In this way, the estimate of national production, which was 37.5 million sacks in March, changed, in April, to 36.6 million sacks in 2007.

It is estimated that the harvest 2007 will be 15.3% lower than the one of 2006. This reduction increases, when the great state informants of coffee are evaluated: Minas Gerais (-22.9%) and São Paulo (-39.8%). Espírito Santo increased (4.5%), as well as Bahia (2.2%).

The decrease of 15.3% shows the bi-annual characteristic of the crop in the low part of the cycle. The harvest of 2003 and 2005, also years of low productivity, showed indexes of -19.9% and -13.5%, respectively, showing the fact that, since the grain of coffee is a bi-annual plant, its performance has a similar pattern, if there are not severe interference of climatic conditions. Besides the bi-annual characteristic, there was not, in this cycle of production, any exceptional factor influencing the harvest of 2007 in a significant way.

Sugar cane

The increase of 4.4% in the estimate of production occurred due to a re-evaluation in the area destined to the harvest as well as in the productivity of the states of Bahia, Minas Gerais, São Paulo, Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul.  In São Paulo, major producer of sugar cane in the country, a volume of 296 million tons is expected.  A production of 513 million tons (12.7%) is estimated for the national harvest, in a reaping area of 6.7 million hectares (8.9%).

Orange

In São Paulo, major national producer, with approximately 80% of the orange produced in the country, a production of approximately 14.7 million tons is estimated, 2.6% higher than the one of March.  The favorable climatic conditions are the main reason for this increase.

2nd harvest corn in grain

The increase of 7.4% in the estimate of production of 2nd harvest corn in grain, in relation to March, comes mainly from the state of Mato Grosso do Sul. Due to the good climatic conditions and the good performance of the prices negotiated with the producer, the state re-evaluated the index of productivity from 3,020 kg/ha to 3,467 kg/ha; and the area, from 510 thousand hectares to 729 thousand hectares.  With this changes, the estimated production for the state, in April, reached 2.5 million tons.

Wheat in grain

For the wheat, considered a winter culture, it could be observed in this 1st estimate an increase of 9.1% in the expected production, which now is situated in 3.8 million tons, if compared to the forecast informed in March, 3.4 million tons.  In this beginning of planting we already have the information of Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul and Minas Gerais. In Paraná, where together with Rio Grande do Sul, the production of wheat is more significant, the first estimate was 2.3 million tons compared to 1.2 million tons obtained in 2006.

Estimates of April in relation to the harvest of 2006

Among the 25 products of the national agricultural harvest of 2007 analyzed by the IBGE, 18 had positive change in the estimate of production in relation to the previous year. The following products registered positive results: herbaceous cotton in seed (30.1%), 2nd harvest peanuts in husk (21.4%), oats in grain (26.1%), 1st harvest potatoes (21.5%), 2nd harvest potatoes (7.0%), sugar cane (12.7%), onions (2.2%), barley in grain (41.7%), 1st harvest beans in grain (31.0%), orange (1.1%), castor beans (berry) (51.3%), cassava (3.0%), 1st harvest corn in grain (16.0%), 2nd harvest corn in grain (33.8%), soybeans in grain (9.2%), wheat in grain (52.3%) and triticale (4.5%).

With negative changes in relation to the production of 2006 stood out 1st harvest peanuts in husk (-9.9%), rice in husk (-4.1%), 3rd harvest potatoes (-6.4%), almond cacao (-2.4%), coffee in grain (-15.3%), 2nd harvest beans in grain (-10.1%) and sorghum in grain (-19.1%).