In March, the industrial production presented growth of 1.5% compared to February, in the series with seasonal adjustment, after two months decreasing, a period in which it accumulated a loss of 1.7%. In relation to March 2004, the growth was of 1.7%. The accumulated index of the first quarter recorded an increment of 3.9% in relation to the first quarter of 2004 and the accumulated indicator for the last twelve months presented reduction in the rhythm of growth, passing from 8.6% in February to 7.6% in March.

Industry grows 3.9% in the first quarter but looses rhythm

It can be observed that the industrial sector is sustaining positive results in the quarterly comparisons for six consecutive quarters, although in a deceleration rhythm trend since the end of 2004. This trend is clear in capital goods and in intermediate goods. The production of semi durable and non durable consumer goods accelerates in this beginning of the year and the sector of durable goods, although loosing rhythm, is expanding itself above the industrial average.

In the first quarter of 2005, the total industrial growth was 3.9% in relation to the same period of 2004, a growing rhythm lower than the one observed in the last quarter of 2004 (6.3%). With 20 activities indicating increase in the production, the manufacturing of automotive vehicles (11.4%) represents the main impact upon the overall index. Other positive impacts were edition and printing (10.9%) and electronic and communication material (15.3%), due to the expansion in the production of mobile telephones. The major negative impacts came from petroleum refining and alcohol production (-3.8%) and tobacco (-16.7%).

The results by categories of use confirm the leadership of the sector of durable consumer goods, which grows 15.0% in the fourth quarter of 2004 and maintains an increase of 13.0% in the following quarter. The sector of semi durable and non durable consumer goods is the only one which shows a major rhythm of growth between the last quarter of 2004 (4.2%) and the first one of 2005 (5.4%).

The segments of capital goods and intermediate goods reduce the rhythm of growth in this first quarter. Capital goods pass from an increment of 6.9% in the fourth quarter in the last year to 2.5% in the first quarter of 2005, while in intermediate goods the rates are 6.9% and 1.5%, respectively.

From February to March, the sector of capital goods grew 5.4%

In the comparison with the month of February, the segment of capital goods reached the most elevated rate among the categories of use (5.4%). This index was registered after two consecutive decreases, when the sector accumulated loss of 4.8%.

The sector of intermediate goods (0.1%) practically repeated the values of February, hence, not reverting, the negative rates indicated in the two previous months, when accumulated a recoil of 2.7%. The production of durable goods presents fall of 0.7% from February to March, after growing 11.7% in February. The segment of semi durable and non durable consumer goods fell again (-0.2%), although much more mildly than observed in February (-4.0%).

Among the 23 groups of industry that have seasonally adjusted series, eight present decrease between February and March. Among those that more influenced the overall positive behavior, stood out pharmaceuticals (13.1%); machines and equipment (4.0%); cellulose and paper (4.0%) and electronic material and communication equipment (3.6%). Petroleum refining and alcohol production (-2.4%) and basic metal products (-2.6%) were the main negative impacts.

In relation to March 2004 durable consumer goods lead the expansion

In the comparison with March 2004, the indexes by categories of use show the leadership of durable consumer goods (13.9%), with a rhythm considerably above the industrial average (1.7%). The increase in the production of household appliances (7.4%), mobile telephones (54.6%) and cars (11.3%) contributed for this result.

The segment of semi durable and non durable consumer goods (1.6%) shows the fifth positive result, with highlight of the sub sector of non durable (2.1%), and fuels, being this one the only negative result (-2.9%). The sector of capital goods (0.5%) indicated a rate near zero. The negative pressures in this sector come from capital goods for agriculture (-34.8%) and capital goods of mixed use (-2.6%). In the other sub sectors, the results are positive: capital goods for construction (26.7%), for transport (8.5%), for electricity (7.7%) and machines and equipment for industrial use (3.2%). The production of intermediate goods stops a sequence of 19 months of growth, since it recorded a negative variation of 0.4%, mainly due to the recoil in the sub sector of fuels and elaborated lubricants (-3.1%), with highlight to the item diesel oil and lubricant oils.

In the comparison March 05/ March 04, the industrial production increased 1.7%, the nineteenth positive result, although the lowest since December 2003. Among the 27 industrial surveyed activities, 16 presented growth. The major positive impacts on the overall index came from automotive vehicles (6.2%), pharmaceuticals (15.1%) and machines and equipment (4.9%). The main negative pressures came from tobacco (-22.7%), due to a long drought in the south of the country and petroleum refining and alcohol production (-4.1%).

In synthesis, the deceleration in the rhythm of industrial growth can be observed in the behavior of the indexes that compare the quarter to the immediately previous quarter (table 3), where we can observe that, from the third quarter of the last year, the rates of the total of the industry are positive, although decreasing: 3.0% in the period April-June, 2.2%, 0.5% and 0.2% in the following quarters. By categories of use, a similar trend is observed in the segment of capital goods and intermediate goods while in the segment of consumer durable goods this trend is milder. The exception remains with the segment of semi durable and non durable consumer goods, which shows a trend of growth in this period.