Regional industry
Industrial output advances in nine out of 15 places surveyed in November over October
January 12, 2024 09h00 AM | Last Updated: January 12, 2024 04h00 PM
With the change of 0.5% in the national industrial output between October and November, nine out of 15 places investigated by the Regional Monthly Survey of Industry (PIM) registered positive rates in this indicator. The biggest individual advance came from Paraná (5.4%), whereas São Paulo (1.9%) recorded the major influence on the monthly figure and stayed above its pre-pandemic level.
“In November, it is possible to establish a relation between the advance of 0.5% and the drop of the interest rate, an effect of a more expansive monetary policy. The drop of the interest rate causes a direct impact on the available income of families, so that credit becomes cheaper. We cannot forget that the interests are still high, though we can see an improvement in the available income of families, which increases the consumption and directly impacts on the industrial production chain,” highlights Bernardo Almeida, an analyst of the survey.
The researcher also highlights that another important point is the improvement in the wage bill of the population, which causes an impact on the income of families and influences their consumption as well. “Whenever I talk about an improvement in the wage bill, I am talking about an improvement in the unemployment rate, exerting a direct impact on the industrial production chain. In addition, a cheaper credit helps to reduce uncertainties against the macroeconomic scenario, with an impact on the decisions of producers. It influences decision taking, which becomes more optimistic, once again improving the pace of production.”
As the major industrial pole in Brazil, São Paulo advanced 1.9% in November and accumulated a gain of 2.3% over the last two months. The results of the São Paulo industry were leveraged by the pharmaceutical sector, endorsing the national figure, which also had this sector as one of the positive highlights.
“With that result, the São Paulo industry is 22.0% below its highest level, of March 2011, though we notice an improvement in the pace of production when compared with the pre-pandemic level of February 2020. With the November´s result, the São Paulo industry is 0.4% above the pre-pandemic level. In October, São Paulo was 1.7% below the pre-pandemic level, confirming an improvement in the pace of production in November. It is important to point out that we are not talking about an upturn of the sustainable growth, but rather an improvement in the scenario of the industrial output. Whether or not it will cause a sustainable growth, we still need to wait for the coming data,” assesses the researcher.
On the other hand, the Paraná industry registered the highest individual rise, with a rate of 5.4%, and it was the second biggest influence on the national figure. November was the fourth consecutive month of positive results in the state, which accumulates a gain of 14.5%.
“There was a significant improvement in the pace of production of the Paraná industry and we can state this by looking at the figures related to the pre-pandemic period. The Paraná industry is 9.6% above the pre-pandemic level. It is a significant level, positively speaking. Like in São Paulo, it is required to wait to see if that improvement will become a sustainable growth, if it will endure, but it is an improvement in the pace of production. The sector of petroleum products has mostly influenced that industry over the last months, a sector very influential in that industry,” highlights Almeida.
The second highest positive rate and the fifth influence this month came from the Espírito Santo industry. That state offset part of the cumulative loss of 7.1% in the September-October period. The mining and quarrying sector was the one that mostly influenced the Espírito Santo industry.
In contrast, Pernambuco (-9.7%) and Amazonas (-4.2%) recorded the most intense retreats in the output, the former offsetting the advance of 9.8% reported in October and the latter registering the third consecutive month of drop in the production, a period in which it accumulated a reduction of 15.1%.
Compared with November last year, industry advances in 12 out of 18 places surveyed
In the comparison with November 2022, the industrial sector grew 1.3% in November 2023, showing positive figures in 12 out of 18 places surveyed. It is worth mentioning that November 2023 (20 days) had the same number of business days as the same month a year ago (20).
This month, Paraná (21.2%), Espírito Santo (18.5%), Goiás (16.6%), Pará (12.8%), Rio de Janeiro (10.5%) and Mato Grosso (10.0%) recorded two-digit advances and the steepest ones, leveraged by the positive behavior of the sectors of coke, petroleum products and biofuels (diesel fuel, liquefied petroleum gas, motor gasoline, petroleum asphalt, fuel oils and aviation kerosene) in the first place, and of mining and quarrying industries (pelletized or sintered iron ore and crude petroleum oil) and pulp, paper and paper products (pulp) in the second one.
Bahia (8.4%), Maranhão (5.0%), Santa Catarina (2.2%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (2.2%) also recorded more intense advances than the national average (1.3%), whereas Ceará (0.9%) and Minas Gerais (0.2%) completed the places that grew their output in the monthly index of November 2023.
On the other hand, Amazonas (-10.3%) reported a two-digit retreat and the highest one this month, pressed, to a great extent, by the activity of computer equipment, electronic and optical products (TVs, cellular phones, devices to receive, convert and transmit images or data, mounted printed circuit boards, receivers-decoders of encoded video signals and radios for motor vehicles). Rio Grande do Sul (-4.4%), Rio Grande do Norte (-2.8%), Pernambuco (-1.8%), São Paulo (-0.3%) and Northeast Region (-0.1%) recorded the other negative results this month.
More about the survey
The Regional PIM has been producing short-term indicators since the 1970s regarding the behavior of the real product from mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries. It presents, every month, indexes for 17 Federation Units, each one accounting for at least 0.5% of the national value of manufacturing, and also for the Northeast Region as a whole: Amazonas, Pará, Maranhão, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, Pernambuco, Bahia, Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, Goiás and the Northeast Region. The survey results can also be seen on Sidra, the IBGE database. The next release of the Regional PIM will be on February 8.
