From August to September, the Brazilian industrial output changed by 0.1%, with increases in five of the 15 areas surveyed by the Regional Monthly Survey of Industry (Regional PIM). Pará (16.1%), Rio de Janeiro (3.1%), Ceará (2.2%) and Paraná (1.8%) accounted for the main increases. São Paulo, with the main industrial plants in the country, recorded a decrease of 1.1%, whereas Pernambuco had the biggest individual drop, a rate of -12.8%.

From September 2022, industry grew by 0.6% and the positive rates were recorded by 10 of the 18 areas surveyed. The cumulative index in the year changed by -0.2%, a negative result, also observed in 18 other areas. The cumulative index in 12 months recorded null change (0.0%), with positive rates in eight of the 15 areas surveyed. The data were released today (8) by the IBGE.

In April, the results of Regional PIM were released for the first time with the updating in the selection of samples of enterprises, local units and product list, besides the addition of three new places: Rio Grande do Norte, Maranhão and Mato Grosso do Sul, adding up to 18 places. For the new areas there not information yet on the month-on-month comparison.

“We are still observing a gradual and balanced behavior of industry, in which there has been a downfall in production, caused by factors such as high interests, which lead to a rise of credit and a decrease of credit line, leading to reduced investment decisions by producers. These factors also require care in decision making by families, and that affects consumption,” says the survey analyst, Bernardo Almeida.

In regional terms, the higher absolute and higher positive change in September was recorded by the state of Pará, with a rate of 16.1%, with the mining and quarrying sector as the main responsible for this increase.

“It is worth highlighting that the industrial activity in Pará is concentrated in the mining and quarrying sector; therefore, this sectorhas a gret relevance in terms of local industry. With this result, Pará made up for the cumulative loss observed in the last three months. Between June and August, the cumulative loss had been of 14.1%, Mr. Almeida highlights.

The second biggest increase in absolute terms and second main contribution came from Rio de Janeiro, and recorded an increase of 3.1%, also having the mining and quarrying secotr as the main influence to increase. The analyst highlights that, in the case of Rio de Janeiro, mining and quarrying industry is mainly concentrated in the sector of petroleum and natural gas. 

The main negative result in absolute figures came from the state of Pernambuco, with a rate of -12.8%. The sector of petroleum and of motor vehicles were the most influential ones to the drop registered by industry in Pernambuco.

“It is worth pointing out that the rate of September was the fourth consecutive one, and there has been a cumulative loss of 17.5% in these four months. The rate of September has been the most significant negative one for industry in Pernambuco since April 2020, when there was a result of -18.4%. It is also worth mentioning that, in April 2020, the index reached its lowest level in industry, when we observed the main impacts of social distancing policies, in the beginning of the pandemic,” the researcher explains.

The main negative contribution this month came from São Paulo, the main industrial plant in Brazil, being responsible for approximately 33% of the national industry, and an increase of -1.1%. The main influences accounting for drops in industry in São Pauçp were the sectors of food products and motor vehicles.

“It is worth pointing out that this behavior if industry in São Paulo represents a gradual pace of decrease and that can is also relfected in national industry. The deceleration is observed against pre-pandemic levels. In September, São Paulo recorded a rate 1.6% below the pre-pandemic one, that is, in February 2020. That results from the previously mentioned factors regarding national industry. That ends up leading to a maore careful and balanced approach to decision making by producers,” Mr. Almeida reports.

Industry advances in 10 of 18 areas in the interannual comparison

Against the same month a year ago, the industrial sector grew by 0.6% in September 2023, with positive figures in 10 of the 18 areas surveyed. It is worth mentioning that September 2023 (20 days) had one business day less than the same month a year ago (21).

This month, Rio Grande do Norte (40.2%), Pará (14.5%) and Espírito Santo (14.2%) registered two-digit advances, the sharpest ones driven mainly by the positive behavior of coke, petroleum products and biofuels (automotive gasoline and diesel), in the first location; mining and quarrying industries (crude or processed iron ore and copper ore), in the second; and mining and quarrying industry (pellet or sinter iron ores, crude oil and natural gas), in the last one.

Paraná (8.9%), Rio de Janeiro (8.5%), Goiás (6.7%), Mato Grosso (6.0%), São Paulo (1.1%) and Santa Catarina (0.9%) also recorded increaases above the national average (0.6%), whereas Minas Gerais (0.6%) completed the group of areas with increase in production as for the monthly index of September 2023.

On the other hand, Ceará (-11.9%), Northeast Region (-9.4%) and Bahia (-9.0%) recorded the nmain increases this month. Rio Grande do Sul (-6.0%), Maranhão (-5.4%), Pernambuco (-4.6%), Amazonas (-1.9%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (-0.3%) recorded the main negative results in the month.

More about the survey

Regional PIM has been producing short-term indicators since the 1970s regarding the behavior of the real product from mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries. It presents, every month, indexes for 17 Federation Units, each one accounting for at least 0.5% of the national value of manufacturing, and also for the Northeast Region as a whole: Amazonas, Pará, Maranhão, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, Pernambuco, Bahia, Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, Goiás and the Northeast Region.

The survey results are also available at  Sidra, the IBGE database. . The next release for Regional PIM, relative to October, is scheduled for December 8th.