The Brazilian industry positively changed 0.4% between July and August, offsetting part of the drop of 0.6% registered in the previous month. Compared with August 2022, the output advanced 0.5%, after recording a drop of 1.1% in July, when it interrupted two consecutive months of positive rates: 0.2% (June) and 1.9% (May). Therefore, industry accumulates a retreat of 0.3% in the year over the same period in 2022. On the other hand, the cumulative index over the last 12 months negatively changed 0.1%, after registering a null change in the months of July, June and May. These are the results of the Monthly Industrial Survey - PIM, released today (3) by the IBGE.

André Macedo, an analyst of the survey, states that the industrial sector remains operating in a “win and lose” picture, spinning around the same level. “Note that the cumulative rate over the last 12 months recorded three months of null change. And even with the current retreat, of 0.1%, it is still close to zero,” exemplifies him.

For the researcher, the current scenario of industry can be explained by a more restrictive monetary policy, despite the movements to reduce the interest rate. “However, we still have a high interest rate, which affects the decisions on consumption and the investments as well,” explains Macedo.

In August, the industrial output stood 1.8% below the pre-pandemic level, of February 2020, and it is 18.3% lower than the peak of the time series, of May 2011.

The August´s PIM also shows a widespread profile of positive rates, since three out of four broad economic categories and 18 out of 25 industrial sectors surveyed expanded their output. The major positive influences among the activities were: pharmchemicals and pharmaceuticals (18.6%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (5.2%) and computer equipment, electronic and optical products (16.6%). In August, the result of the pharmaceutical industry shows that this sector steps up the expansion of 9.3% registered in July, with a cumulative gain of 29.6% in this period. “It is an activity characterized by a higher volatility within the time series. And these rises are also related to the previous lower comparison basis,” highlights the analyst, reminding that the pharmaceutical sector recorded three months (April, May and June) of negative rates, with a cumulative loss of 18.1% in the period.

The other two activities grow once again, after retreating in the last months. In June-July, the cumulative loss was of 9.7% for the vehicle industry and of 18.4% for computer and electronic equipment. In other words, they follow a logic similar to the pharmaceutical sector: “It grows a lot due to previous retreats, starting from a lower comparison basis,” says Macedo. “It exemplifies a little the lose-and-win behavior that the national industry has been showing,” concludes him.

Among the activities that reduced the output, the sector of mining and quarrying (-2.7%) works in the opposite direction: it recorded its major negative impact this month, increasing the drop registered in the previous month, of 1.6%. However, it starts from a higher level due to the performance of items petroleum and iron ore. “Therefore, the marginal drop in the time series does not change the growth behavior that this segment has been showing along the year, since the cumulative rate in 2023 is 5.7%,” weights the researcher.

Other positive contributions came from food products (1.0%), chemicals (2.2%), machinery and equipment (4.2%), rubber and plastic products (2.9%), fabricated metal products (1.9%), furniture (5.1%) and manufacture of wearing apparel and accessories (2.8%). Among the retreats, it should also be highlighted those recorded by the sectors of miscellaneous products (-8.0%), leather, travel articles and footwear (-4.2%) and basic metals (-1.1%).

Among the broad economic categories, still between July and August, durable consumer goods (8.0%) and capital goods (4.3%) reported the highest positive rates. The sector producing semi and non-durable consumer goods (1.0%) also grew, whereas intermediate goods (-0.3%) registered the only negative rate in August 2023.

Sector advances 0.5% in the annual comparison

In the comparison between August 2023 and August 2022, the industrial output advanced 0.5%, with positive figures in three out of four broad economic categories, nine out of 25 sectors, 32 out of 80 groups and 42.0% of the 789 products surveyed. It is worth mentioning that both in 2022 and in 2023, the month of August had the same number of business days (23).

The major positive influences were reported by food products (7.6%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (6.5%) and mining and quarrying industries (3.8%). The sectors of pharmchemicals and pharmaceuticals (8.6%), printing and reproduction of recorded media (27.6%) and other transportation equipment (7.6%) also brought important contributions. Among the drops, the sectors of motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-10.7%), chemicals (-4.5%) and machinery and equipment (-7.0%) stand out. Other important negative impacts came from miscellaneous products (-18.3%), basic metals (-4.5%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (-9.4%), manufacture of wearing apparel and accessories (-7.9%), non-metallic mineral products (-6.1%), electrical machines, appliances and material (-7.2%) and pulp, paper and paper products (-4.2%).

Among the broad categories, still compared with August 2022, semi and non-durable consumer goods (3.5%) and durable consumer goods (2.8%) registered the highest rises. The production of intermediate goods (0.4%) also grew, though less intense than the industry average (0.5%). On the other hand, the sector of capital goods (-15.4%) recorded the only negative rate in August.

Cumulative index in the year records a negative change of 0.3%

In the cumulative index in the year over the same period in 2022, the industrial sector dropped 0.3%, with negative figures in two out of four broad economic categories, 17 out of 25 sectors, 49 out of 80 groups and 55.8% of the 789 products surveyed. The major negative influences this month came from chemicals (-7.8%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-4.4%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (-12.1%), electrical machines, appliances and material (-10.8%), machinery and equipment (-6.2%) and non-metallic mineral products (-7.5%).

Among the rises, mining and quarrying industries (5.7%), food products (3.6%) and coke, petroleum products and biofuels (3.9%) stand out.

In terms of the economic categories, capital goods recorded a lower dynamism (-11.4%). The sector producing intermediate goods (-0.4%) also recorded a negative figure this month and with a slightly more intense loss than that reported by the industry average (-0.3%). In contrast, the biggest advance was in durable consumer goods (4.1%), with semi and non-durable consumer goods (1.7%) also growing.

More on the survey

PIM Brazil has been producing short-term indicators since the 1970s regarding the behavior of the real product of mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries. March 2023 marked the beginning of the release of the new time series of monthly indexes of the industrial production, after a redesign to update the sample of activities, products and informants; create a new weighting structure of the indexes based on the most recent industrial statistics; update the base year of reference of the survey; and incorporate new Federation Units in the release of regional results of the survey. These methodological changes are required and they aim at incorporating the economic changes of the society. The survey can also be checked on the Sidra database. The next release of the industrial output - Brazil will be on November 1st.

Keywords: Produção industrial nacional tem variação de 0, 4% em agosto