Sales in the retail trade in Brazil retreated 2.6% between November and December. This is the second consecutive drop in the sector, which had already retreated 0.9% in November. Nevertheless, the retail closed the year on the positive side, accumulating 1.0%, the lowest growth since 2016 (-6.2%). Compared with December 2021, the sector changed 0.4%. The data are from the Monthly Survey of Trade (PMC), released today (9) by the IBGE.

“The cumulative result in the year is very close to those of the previous years. In 2021, for example, it registered a cumulative gain of 1.4%. 2022 recorded a similar growth, yet even more timid. Yet, it is very concentrated, in terms of change, in the sector of fuels and lubricants, which accumulated a rise of 16.6% in the year, a large distance from the cumulative gain of this activity in 2021 (0.3%),” explains Cristiano Santos, the manager of the survey.

Five out of eight activities surveyed closed the year on the positive side. Besides fuels and lubricants (16.6%), the segment of books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (14.8%) also accumulated a two-digit increase in 2022. The researcher reminds that the sector of fuels started an upward path in July last year, when its major products had their price policies changed.

“After those changes, that activity increased significantly and, after that, suffered huge drops. It lost 5.4% in November and the December´s figure stepped up even more that path. Even so, the cumulative index in the year for this sector was the highest one in the time series,” assesses Santos. The segment of fuels and lubricants grew 27.8% only in the second semester of the year.

In the case of the books sector, the growth is associated with the return of the circulation of people and of on-site classes. This activity did not rise over the previous year since 2013. “It is a sector that accumulates losses over the years, due to the emptying of physical stores, since many people did not buy physical products of this nature anymore. The growth in the year is explained by the sales of teaching material, when classes returned on-site,” highlights the researcher.

The sector of hypermarkets and supermarkets, which has the highest weight in the survey, is on the negative side for two months, though it closed the year with a cumulative gain of 1.4%. “One of the reasons for such growth is the drop of 2.6% in the previous year. In 2022, we had the effect of high inflation specially on food products, which favor this sector over others, since many people decide to not consume another product to remain buying these basic items, albeit reducing the expenditure as a whole. In the last quarter, we had also the effect of the increase in the Auxílio Brasil, reaching lower-income families that tend to use this benefit in hypermarkets and supermarkets,” analyzes Santos.

The other two sectors that grew in terms of the cumulative index in the year were Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic  articles and toiletries (6.3%) and Office, computer and communication equipment and material (1.7%).

Five segments retreated in this indicator: Construction material (-8.7%), Other articles of personal and domestic use (-8.4%), Furniture and domestic appliances (-6.7%), Vehicles and motorcycles, parts and accessories (-1.7%) and Fabric, apparel and footwear (-0.5%). In the extended retail, which also includes the sectors of vehicles and construction material, the cumulative index in the year declined as well (-0.6%).

Seven sectors stay on the negative side over November

The drop of 2.6% between November and December is the highest one since August 2021 (-4.8%). Seven out of eight sectors surveyed in the retail recorded negative figures: Fabric, apparel and footwear (-6.1%), Other articles of personal and domestic use (-2.9%), Fuels and lubricants (-1.6%), Furniture and domestic appliances (-1.6%), Hyper and supermarket, food products, beverages and tobacco (-0.8%), Office, computer and communication equipment and material (-0.6%) and Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic articles and toiletries (-0.4%).

“This result of -2.6% steps up the drop in the previous month (-0.9%). In August 2021, the retraction of 4.8% had been preceded by a growth, i.e., it was a compensation, which is not the case of the December´s figure. This indicator did not increase for three months, which is a result of a weak Holiday Season and Black Friday,” explains him.

Only one of the retail sectors did not stay on the negative side: Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (0.1%). In the extended retail, Vehicles and motorcycles, parts and accessories grew 2.4% and Construction material, 1.3%.

Sales change 0.4% compared with December 2021

Compared with December 2021, volume of sales of the retail changed 0.4%, with six activities on the positive side. Fuels and lubricants (23.8%), Hyper and supermarket, food products, beverages and tobacco (2.5%), Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic  articles and toiletries (0.8%), Furniture and domestic appliances (0.3%), Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (0.3%) and Office, computer and communication equipment and material (0.1%). Two activities reported a significant drop in this indicator: Other articles of personal and domestic use (-8.4%) and Fabric, apparel and footwear (-11.9%).

In the extended retail, the rate was of -0.6% in the same comparison. The two activities in this sector retreated in the period: Vehicles and motorcycles, parts and pieces (-1.8%) and Construction material (-7.1%).

The retail, which spent the whole year above the pre-pandemic level, registered in February 2020, changed to 1.1% below it in December. The highest level was hit in April, when it was 3.8% above February 2020.

Sales drop in most Federation Units compared with November

The drop in the retail sales between November and December was spread along 19 Federation Units, highlighted by the Federal District (-8.0%), Paraíba (-5.8%) and Amapá (-4.8%). Among eight FUs with positive figures, the highlights were Rondônia (3.3%), Mato Grosso (2.8%) and Tocantins (1.6%).

In the extended retail, the change in this comparison was 0.4% and 15 Federation Units recorded positive figures, highlighted by Rondônia (3.7%), Espírito Santo (3.3%) and Alagoas (3.0%). Among those on the negative side, the highlights were the Federal District (-5.1%), Roraima (-4.2%) and Amapá (-3.6%). Mato Grosso do Sul remained stable (0.0%).

More about the survey

PMC produces indicators to monitor the short-term behavior of retail trade in Brazil, investigating the gross revenue of formal enterprises with 20 or more employed persons and whose major activity is retail trade.

Having started in 1995, the PMC brings monthly results of changes in sales volume and nominal revenue for retail trade and extended retail trade (cars and construction material) for Brazil and Federation Units. The results are available at  Sidra.