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Monthly Survey of Trade

Retail sales decelerate to -0.1% in February

Section: Economic Statistics | Vinícius Britto

April 25, 2023 09h00 AM | Last Updated: April 25, 2023 02h20 PM


The drop of 0.7% in supermarket sales was the biggest influence on the February´s result - Picture: Helena Pontes/IBGE News Agency

Volume of sales in trade changed -0.1% in February 2023. It rose 1.0% compared with February 2022, the seventh consecutive positive figure in this index, whereas the rise was 1.3% in the indicator of the last 12 months. The data are from the Monthly Survey of Trade (PMC), released today (25) by the IBGE.

The change of -0.1% registered in February sustained the level reached in January 2023, when the index grew 3.8%. In its turn, the January´s rate represented a recovery from the low basis of the last two months of 2022, when sales retracted. Cristiano Santos, manager of the survey, analyzes the results.

“We can face the results as a consequence of a bad Black Friday and Holiday Season, which resulted in a recovery in January and the stability of that level in February. In addition, stable inflation in some important sectors for our survey, like food at home, which impacts the activity of hypermarkets and supermarkets, helps to understand the results recorded in February as well,” highlights him.

 

The negative change this month was followed by six out of eight activities comprising the retail trade. The group of hyper and supermarket, food products, beverages and tobacco (-0.7%), which represents more than 40% of the monthly weight of the survey, stood out. Moreover, fabric, apparel and footwear (-6.3%) and office, computer and communication equipment and material (-10.4%) stood out negatively in February.

“Fabric, apparel and footwear and office, computer and communication equipment and material are two highly volatile activities, which are varying much in the last months. A factor that helps to explain this scenario is that January was a month with many sales promotions, as a strategy of large enterprises in these sectors after a bad November, with Black Friday, and a bad December, with the Holiday Season. Sales promotions that did not continue in February,” clarifies the manager.

The groups of pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic articles and toiletries (1.4%) and of books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (4.7%) reported the only positive figures in February.

“The rise registered in the group of pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic  articles and toiletries is mainly due to pharmaceuticals, since February is a month in which part of the medicines are released to a regular price increase and it reflected on the volume this month. On the other hand, the rise in books, newspapers, magazines and stationery can be mainly explained by articles related to pedagogical material. It is worth highlighting that, in the long term, this activity has been losing importance as it is narrowly tied to physical books, physical newspapers and physical stationery,” stresses Santos.

Moreover, after 36 months of a path influenced by the Covid-19 pandemic, the level of February 2023 is 3.0% above the level of February 2020. It is worth highlighting that the activities that comprise the overall index of the retail trade behave differently along the time, varying, in February 2023 in relation to February 2020, from -40.0% in the sector of books, newspapers, magazines and stationery to 21.4% in pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic articles and toiletries.

Extended retail grows 1.7% in February

Considering the extended retail trade, which includes, besides retail, the activities of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and construction material, volume of sales increased 1.7% in February 2023 over January, after changing 0.2% last month. After the stability (0.0%) registered in the quarter ended in January 2023, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the retail advanced 0.9% in the quarter ended in February 2023.

Inter-annual comparison rose 1.0%, despite the retreat in six of eight activities

Compared with February 2022, volume of sales of the retail trade grew 1.0%, even falling in six out of eight activities: other articles of personal and domestic use (-12.9%), books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-9.5%), fabric, apparel and footwear (-9.2%), office, computer and communication equipment and material (-4.5%), furniture and domestic appliances (-1.9%) and pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic articles and toiletries (-0.7%).

In contrast, the only sectors to rise against February 2022 were hyper and supermarket, food products, beverages and tobacco (1.0%) and fuels and lubricants (19.7%).

In the extended retail trade, the three additional activities dropped: vehicles and motorcycles, parts and accessories (-1.5%), construction material (-5.9%) and wholesale specialized in food products, beverages and tobacco (-9.5%).

Sales have negative results in 14 of 27 FUs surveyed

In the seasonally-adjusted series, the national average rate of sales of the retail trade changed -0.1% between January and February 2023, with negative figures in 14 out of 27 Federation Units, highlighted by: Paraíba (-11.5%), Espírito Santo (-5.2%) and Piauí (-1.9%). On the other hand, 13 FUs rose between January and February, highlighted by: Roraima (2.7%), Maranhão (2.0%) and Amapá (1.8%).

In the same comparison in the extended retail trade, the growth between January and February 2023 was 1.7%, with positive figures in 22 out of 27 FUs, highlighted by: Pará (8.4%), Mato Grosso (6.8%) and Maranhão (6.0%). In contrast, five out of 27 FUs pressed negatively, highlighted by Paraíba (-7.9%), Sergipe (-2.8%) and Espírito Santo (-1.4%).

More about the survey

PMC produces indicators to monitor the short-term behavior of retail trade in Brazil, investigating the gross revenue of formal enterprises with 20 or more employed persons and whose major activity is retail trade.

Having started in 1995, the PMC brings monthly results of changes in sales volume and nominal revenue for retail trade and extended retail trade (cars and construction material) for Brazil and Federation Units. The results are available at  Sidra.


Keywords: Vendas do comércio desaceleram para -0, 1% em fevereiro



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