In May, the estimated output of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2023 was 305.4 million tonnes, 16.1% above the harvest in 2022  (263.2 million tonnes) and 1.1% above the amount estimated in April, with an increase of 3,270,057 tonnes. The area to be harvested was of 76.6 million hectares, representing an increase of 4.6% against the area harvested in 2022, an increase of 3.4 million hectares. The area to be harvested increased by 237,739 hectares (0.3%).

Rice, corn and soybeans were the three main products in this group. They represented 92.0% of the output estimate and accounted for 87.2% of the area to be harvested. Compared with 2022, soybeans rose 24.0%, upland cottonseed, 2.9%, corn, 11.5%, with increases of 9.7% for corn - 1st crop and of 12.0% for corn - 2nd crop, and wheat, 5.5%, whereas paddy rice decreased 5.6%.

In the area to be harvested, the area for corn increased 3.1%, upland cottonseed, 1.2%, sorghum, 16.6%, wheat, 5.2%, and soybeans, 6.1%. On the other hand, the area for rice declined 5.6% and that for beans, 2.5%.

The May estimate for soybeans was 148.2 million tonnes and, for corn, 122.8 million tonnes (27.9 million tonnes for corn - 1st crop and 94.9 million tonnes for corn - 2nd crop). The output of rice was estimated at 10.1 million tonnes, wheat, at 10.6 million tonnes, upland cottonseed, at 6.9 million tonnes and sorghum, at 3.7 million tonnes.

Compared with 2022, the output estimate of cereals, legumes and oilseeds grew in the five Major Regions: South (26.9%), Central-West (15.8%), Southeast (4.3%), North (13.5%) and Northeast (3.3%).  As for the monthly change, the Northeast Region (0.5%), the Central-West Region (2.9%) and the North Region (1.5%) recorded increases. The Southeast Region remained stable (0.0%), whereas the South Region declined (-1.5%).

Mato Grosso led the national production of grains with a share of 31.1%, followed by Paraná (15.3%), Rio Grande do Sul (9.7%), Goiás (9.6%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.6%) and Minas Gerais (5.9%). These states together accounted for 80.2% of the national estimate. The distribution per Major Region was: Central-West (49.6%), South (27.3%), Southeast (9.5%), Northeast (8.6%) and North (5.0%).

Highlights in the May 2023 estimate in relation to the previous month

Compared with April, the production estimates of wheat (7.3% or 723 714 t), oat (6.3% or 70 853 t), sorghum (5.9% or 207 797 t), corn - 2nd crop (3.2% or 2 968 400 t), rice (2.1% or 206 037 t), beans - 3rd crop (1.6% or 10 110 t), barley (0.7% or 3 328 t), coffea arabica (0.4% or 8 820 t), beans - 1st crop (0.3% or 3 585 t), coffea canephora (0.2% or 1 551 t) rose, whereas tomatoes (-4.5% or -177 003 t), beans - 2nd crop (-3.1% or -42 397 t), cassava (-1.0% or -182 909 t), soybeans (-0.6% or -867 990 t) and corn - 1st crop (-0.1% or -21 813 t) dropped.

Compared with the previous month, the major rises in the output estimates were in Mato Grosso (2,372,277 t), Mato Grosso do Sul (1,535,404 t), Goiás (359,108 t), Rondônia (238,722 t), Maranhão (40,869 t), Ceará (39,067 t), Alagoas (33,887 t), Rio Grande do Norte (11,580 t) and Acre (3,743 t). The negative changes occurred in Rio Grande do Sul (-1,021,166 t),  Paraná (-262,700 t), Federal District (-56,250 t), Amapá (-19,144 t) and Minas Gerais (-5,340 t).

PADDY RICE - The estimated production was of 10.1 million tonnes, a rise of 2.1% over the previous month. The area to be harvested increased 1.2% and the average yield, 0.9%. It declined 5.6% compared with 2022.

COFFEE BEAN - Considering the two species, arabica and canephora, the Brazilian production estimate of coffee for 2023 reached 3.3 million tonnes, or 55.4 million 60-kg sacks, with a rise of 0.3% against the previous month and of 5.9% against 2022. The average yield of 1 744 kg/ha, in turn, increased 1.0% in the monthly comparison and 3.1% in the annual one.

For coffea arabica, the production estimate was of 2.3 million tonnes or 38.5 million 60-kg sacks, a growth of 0.4% in relation to April and of 13.4% in relation to the previous year. In 2022, the harvest of coffea arabica was of positive biennial bearings. However, it registered a lower growth in the production than that expected, since the dry and significantly cold weather in the winter of 2021 reduced the expected output potential. For 2023, the biennial bearings of the harvest should be negative. However, the lack of major climate problems should provide an increase in the output, causing a “biennial reversal.”

As for coffea canephora, mostly known as conillon, the estimated output was of 1.0 million metric tons or 16.9 million 60-kg sacks, an increase of 0.2% in relation to the previous month and of 8.1% in relation to 2022. In the monthly comparison, the planted area and the harvested area increased 0.2%, maintaining the average yield unchanged.

WINTER CEREALS (grain) - The main winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oat and barley. The output of wheat, which should reach 10.6 million tonnes, increased 7.3% in relation to April and 5.5% in relation to 2022. Confirming this figure, Brazil should harvest the biggest harvest of wheat in history in 2023. The area to be planted grew 1.7% over the previous month, with the average yield increasing 5.5% (3,206 kg/ha). In the annual comparison, the planted area grew 5.2%, whereas the average yield increased 0.2%.

The output estimate of oat was 1.2 million tonnes, with an increase of 6.3% against the previous month and a decline of 0.6% against 2022.

As for barley, the estimated output (511.3 thousand tonnes) increased 0.7% in relation to the previous month and 1.5% in relation to 2022.

BEANS (seed) - The estimated output of beans for 2023, considering the three crops, was of 3.1 million tonnes, a decline of 0.9% in relation to April. The first crop of beans was estimated at 1.1 million tonnes, an increase of 0.3% against the estimate of April, as a result of the increase of 0.7% in the average yield and of the drop of 0.4% in the harvested area.  That harvest represented 35.9% of the total amount of beans produced in Brazil.  Compared with the previous year, the output increased 2.4%, the average yield, 5.8%, and the harvested area reduced 3.2%.

The second crop of beans was estimated at 1.3 million tonnes, a retreat of 3.1% over the April´s estimate, as well as of 2.9% in the average yield and of 0.2% in the area to be harvested. That harvest represented 42.8% of the total amount of beans produced in Brazil.  Concerning the annual change, the output estimate of the second crop of beans declined 1.4% in relation to 2022.

As for the third crop of beans, the estimated production was 659.5 thousand tonnes, an increase of 1.6% against the estimate of April, with an increase in the area to be harvested of 1.3% and the average yield increasing 0.3%. That crop represented 21.3% of the total amount of beans produced in Brazil.  Compared with the previous year, the output estimate grew 1.7%, with the estimate of the average yield growing 1.1% and that of the area to be harvested increasing 0.6%.

CASSAVA (roots) - The Brazilian production should reach 18.4 million tonnes, a decrease of 1.0% against the previous month and an increase of 1.1% against 2022.

CORN (grain) - The production estimate for corn increased 2.5% in relation to the previous month, adding up to 122.8 million tonnes, a value 11.5% higher than in 2022. The increases of 2.2% in the average yield and of 0.2% in the harvested area over April accounted for it. Compared with the previous year, the output rose 11.5%, the average yield, 8.2% and the harvested area, 3.1%. The Brazilian production in 2023 was a record in the IBGE´s time series and the good performance was due to the increase in the planting areas and, mainly, to a more favorable rainfall in 2023.

Corn - 1st crop registered a slight retreat in the production, of 21.8 thousand tonnes (-0.1%) over April 2023, adding up to 27.9 million tonnes. Compared with 2022, the Brazilian production of corn - 1st crop grew 9.7%, due to the increase of 9.3% in the average yield (5,261 kg/ha).

The estimate of corn- 2nd crop was of 94.9 million tonnes, a growth of 3.2% compared with April 2023. The increase of 3.0% in the average yield, from 5,563 to 5,728 kg/ha, recorded in the beginning of the harvest in several Federation Units accounted for that adjustment, as well as an increase of 41.0 thousand hectares in the area to be harvested (0.2%). The output increased 12.0% in relation to the same period in 2022, whereas the average yield grew 7.8%, more than the expansion of the area to be harvested, which increased 3.9%.

SOYBEAN (grain) - The national output of soybeans should reach 148.2 million tonnes, an increase of 24.0% over the amount obtained last year, and it should represent nearly half of the total cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced in Brazil in 2023. Recovery of crop productivity in most of the country, against the average reached in 2022, is the main factor accounting for the increase in output.

SORGHUM (grain) – The output estimate for sorghum hit 3.7 million tonnes, increases of 5.9% over April and of 30.3% against 2022. The increase in the output has been followed by increases in the cropped area over the previous year, mainly registered in Minas Gerais (36.8%) and Goiás (14.7%). The average yield also grew: 1.2% in the month and 11.8% in the year, being estimated at 3,090 kg/ha.

TOMATOES - The output should reach 3.8 million tonnes in the 2023 harvest, according to the May estimates.  That amount was 4.5% lower than the estimate in the previous month, with a reduction of 1.8% in relation to that produced in 2022.