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Editorias: Estatísticas Econômicas

The Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15) changed 0.08% in August, close to the 0.09% rate registered in July. This is the lowest rate for August since 2010 (-0.05%). In the year, the IPCA-15 accumulated high of 2.51% and, in 12 months, of 3.22%, result below the 3.27% registered in the immediately previous 12 months. In August 2018, the rate was 0.13%.

Period Rate
August 2019 0.08%
July 2019 0.09%
August 2018 0.13%
Cumulative 2.51%
Cumulative in 12 months 3.22%

Of the nine groups of products and services surveyed, four presented deflation from July to August. The Transportation group (-0.78%), which had already fallen in July (-0.44%), contributed with the largest negative impact on the index of the month, -0.14 percentage points (pp). Food and beverage (-0.17%) and Health and Personal Care (-0.32%) also declined in August, after rising 0.03% and 0.34%, respectively, in the previous month. Concerning the highs, the highlight was Housing, which presented the largest change (1.42%) and the largest impact (0.23 pp) on the August IPCA-15. The other groups  ranged between the fall of 0.07% in Wearing Apparel and the increase of 0.82% in Household articles, as shown in the following table:

Group Change (%) Impact (pp)
July August July August
General Index 0.09 0.08 0.09 0.08
Food and Beverage 0.03 -0.17 0.01 -0.04
Housing 0.43 1.42 0.07 0.23
Household articles -0.06 0.82 0.00 0.03
Wearing Apparel -0.19 -0.07 -0.01 0.00
Transportation -0.44 -0.78 -0.08 -0.14
Health and Personal Care 0.34 -0.32 0.04 -0.04
Personal Expenses 0.48 0.27 0.05 0.03
Education 0.12 0.07 0.01 0.00
Communication 0.14 0.44 0.00 0.01
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Índices de Preços, Sistema Nacional de Índices de Preços ao Consumidor.  

 

In Transportation (-0.78%), gasoline (-1.88%) decreased for the second consecutive month and contributed to the largest negative individual impact on the index of the month (-0.08 pp). Ethanol (-1.09%), diesel oil (-1.70%) and vehicular gas (-0.07%) prices also declined in August, pushing fuel prices down 1.70%.

The second biggest negative impact on the August IPCA-15 also came from the Transportation group. After the highs of June and July (18.98% and 18.10%, respectively), airfares dropped by 15.57%, contributing with -0.07 pp to the index of the month.

Also in Transportation, the result of the item interstate bus (1.92%) reflects the increase, as of July 1st, of 3.20% in the coefficient to calculate the reference value of the ticket for each market. In intercity buses (0.06%), the highlight was the 4.48% increase in long-distance intercity tickets in Porto Alegre (1.24%), in force since August 1st.

The result of the Housing group (1.42%) was mainly influenced by the item electricity (4.91%), which accelerated in relation to the rate registered in July (1.13%), rising for the 7th consecutive month. After the yellow tariff flag, in effect in the previous month, which increased the electricity bills by R$1.50 per 100 kilowatt/hours consumed, in August, the red flag level 1 entered into force, charging R$4.00 for every 100 kilowatt/hours consumed. All regions surveyed had rises, ranging from the 2.64% registered in Goiânia to 7.51% observed in São Paulo, where there was increase of 7.03% in one of the concessionaires, effective since July 4. In Belém (2.87%), there was also an increase in the tariffs of 1.94%, as of August 7.

Also in Housing, the result of piped gas (0.20%) reflects the 0.99% increase in the fees in Rio de Janeiro (0.41%), as of August 1st. Meanwhile, the result of the water and sewage fees (1.01%) is a consequence of the following increases: Recife (0.42%), with an average adjustment of 6.70%, effective since August 12; Belo Horizonte (3.55%), with readjustment of 8.73%, as of August 1st; Goiânia (3.39%), with readjustment of 5.79%, as of July 1st; and Porto Alegre (2.19%) - increase of 7.69% in the tariffs in one of the concessionaires, as of July 1st.

In addition, in Fortaleza (2.56%), there was a reduction, on July 2, from 15.86% to 4.31%, in the increase initially granted in February. However, as of July 9, the reduction was canceled and the 15.86% increase became effective again.

It is also worth mentioning the result bottled gas (-0.42%), after the 8.17% reduction in the price of bottled gas in the refineries, as of August 5.

After a slight increase of 0.03% in July, Food and Beverage declined 0.17% in August, especially due to the behavior of food at home (-0.45%). The main negative contribution in the group came from tomatoes (-14.79%), with -0.05 pp. In addition, potatoes (-15.09%), green vegetables (-6.26%) and carioca beans (-5.61%) also fell in August. Concerning the highs, the highlights were fruits and onion, which rose 2.87% and 15.21%, respectively.

In Health and Personal Care (-0.32%), the fall observed in the IPCA-15 of August is mainly due to two factors. The deceleration of the health plan item (0.03%) reflects the monthly increase of 7.35% in force on July 23, authorized by the National Supplementary Health Agency (ANS) with retroactive effect to May, to be applied to the new individual plans - those with contracts in effect from 1999 on. The result stems from the monthly adjustment, discounting the appropriate change in May, June and July. In addition, the item personal hygiene (-1.83%) decreased for the first time this year, after 7 consecutive months of highs, and contributed with -0.05 pp to the index of the month.

Among the regional indices, six of the 11 surveyed regions presented deflation from July to August, as shown in the following table. The lowest result was registered in the municipality of Goiânia (-0.29%), due to the decrease observed in gasoline prices (-5.63%). The largest index was in the metropolitan area of São Paulo (0.31%), influenced by the 7.51% increase in the item electricity.

Area Regional Weight (%) Monthly Change (%)  Cumulative Change (%)  
July August Year 12 months 
São Paulo 31.68 -0.06 0.31 2.68 3.41 
Porto Alegre 8.40 0.06 0.29 2.68 3.73 
Belo Horizonte 11.23 0.20 0.14 2.69 3.21 
Curitiba 7.79 0.18 0.01 1.78 2.69 
Recife 5.05 0.10 0.00 2.72 2.91 
Salvador 7.35 0.13 -0.13 2.61 2.77 
Rio de Janeiro 12.46 0.26 -0.13 2.41 3.02 
Brasília 3.46 0.22 -0.17 1.84 2.82 
Fortaleza 3.49 0.21 -0.19 3.35 4.09 
Belém 4.65 0.25 -0.27 2.71 3.83 
Goiânia 4.44 -0.19 -0.29 1.37 2.73 
Brazil 100.00 0.09 0.08 2.51 3.22 
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Índices de Preços, Sistema  Nacional de Índices de Preços ao Consumidor.            

For the calculation of the IPCA-15, prices were collected between July 13 and August 13, 2019 (reference) and compared with those in effect from June 13 to July 12, 2019 (base). The indicator refers to families with income from 1 to 40 minimum wages and covers the metropolitan areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador and Curitiba, as well as Brasília and Goiânia. The methodology used is the same as that of the IPCA, the difference lies in the price collection period and geographical coverage.