In March 2019, the output of national industry decreased 1.3% against the result of February this year (seasonally adjusted series), and reversed the increase of 0.6% recorded in the previous month. Against March 2018 (seasonally adjusted series), industry fell by 6.1%, the main decrease since May 2018 (-6.3%).

The cumulative index in the last 12 months (-0.1%) recorded its first negative result since August 2017 and has remained on an upward trend since July 2018 (3,3%). The cumulative index in the year recorded a decrease of 2.2%. The complete publication for the Monthly Survey of Industry (PIM-PF Brasil) is available on this page.

16 of the 26 subsectors surveyed recorded decrease in March

The decrease of 1.3% in industry reflects the reducd output of three of the four main economic categories and of 16 of the 26 subsectors surveyed. Among the activities, the main negative influence was that of food products (-4.9%), which eliminated part of the cumulativ expansion of 13.8%, in the period November 2018 - February 2019.

Other relevant negative contributions came from motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-3.2%), from coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-2,7%), mining nd quarrying industry (-1,7%) and other chemicals (-3.3%). The fisrst aforementioned sector decreaased agains after advancing  6.4% in February; the second returned part of the expansion of 3.9% recorded in the previous month; the third one had a cumulative decrease of 17.6% in three months in  row; the last one pointed to a decrease of 0.5% in February. 

On the one hand, among the nine subsectors with increase of output , the most relevant was that of 4.6%, which incresed the decrease of 10.9% recorded in January 2019.

Among the main economic categories, intermediate goods (-1.5%), durable consumer goods (1.3%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (-1.1%) recorded negative rates. The first segment recorded decrease for the third month in a row and had a cumulative decrease of 2.7%; and the last two ones interrupted two months of increase in a row, in a period when there was an increase of 4.5% and 0.7%, respectively. The sector of capital goods (0.4%) recorded the only positive rate in the month and marked the second consecutive increase, with a cumulative figure of 5.1% in the period. 

Quarterly moving average decreases 0.5%

Also in the seasonally adjusted series, the quarterly moving average of industry fell 0.5% in the quarter ended March 2019, and has remained on a downward trend in August 2018.

Among the main economic categories, intermediate goods (-0.9%) recorded the most significant decrease and the second negative result in a row, with a cumulative decrease of 1.2%. Semi and non-durable goods (-0.1%) also recorded a negative rate, having remained on a downward trend since August 2018.

On the other hand, durable consumer goods (1.0%) and capital goods (0.9%) advanced, with the former recording increase for the second month in a row, and with cumulative increase of 2.1%; the last one increased again after four months of negative rates, a period with cumulative decrease of 8.3%.

Industrial output decreases against figures in March 2018

In comparison with March 2018, industry recorded 6.1%, with negative results in the four major economic categories, 22 of the 26 subsectors , 60 of the 79 groups and 63.7% of the 805 products surveyed. It is worth mentioning that March 2019 (19 days) had two business days less in March 2018 (21).

Among the activities, mining and quarrying industry (-14.0%) and motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-13.3%) accounted for the main negative contributions. Other negative figures came from: food products (-5.0%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (-23.7%), machinery and equipment (-7.8%), other transportation equipment (-22.1%), manufacture of wearing apparel and accessories (-11.8%), rubber products and plastic material (-6,7%), printing and reproduction of recorded media (-30.9%), pharmaceuticals (-7.7%), toiletries, soaps and cleaning products and personal hygiene products (-11.8%), maintenance, repair and installation of machinery and equipment (-9.5%) and furniture (11.6%).

Among the four subsectors that recorded increase of output, the main impacts were those of coke, petroleum products and biofuels (5.0%) and beverages (9.9%).

Also against the same month a year ago, durable consumer goods (-15.8%) and capital goods (-11.5%) recorded the most significant decreases among the main economic categories. Semi and non-durable goods (-5.2%) and intermediate goods (-4.4%) also recorded negative rates, but below the national average (-6.1%).

Durable consumer goods decreased 15.8%, after an increase of 12.6% in February, when it interrupted three months of consecutive negative results. The decrease was more significant since July 2016 (-16.1%). The sector was influenced by the reduced output of cars (-16.8%) and “brown goods” (-29.2%) and also by the decreases in motorcycles (-3.5%) and furniture (-17.1%). On the other hand, positive impacts came from “white goods” (2.9%) and other household appliances (2.5%).

Capital goods (-11.5%) accounted for the most significant decrease since April 2016 (-15.0%), mainly due to the decrease in capital goods for transportation equipment (-15.7%). The other negative rates were: capital goods for industrial use (-8.8%), for mixed use (-9.5%), for electricity (-13.1%) and for agriculture (-9.2%). On the other hand, the only positive impact came from capital goods for construction (6.7%).

Semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (-5.2%) recorded the most significant decrease since May 2018 (-9.1%). That performance was mainly a consequence of the decrease in non-durable goods (-10.6%). It is also worth mentioning the negative results of semi-durable goods (-9.3%) and food and beverages for domestic consumption (-2.0%). The subsector of fuels (1.7%) recorded the only positive rate in this category. 

Intermediate goods (-4.4%) recorded the seventh negative rate in a row, the highest since May 2018 (-4.9%). A result mainly due to the decrease recorded y the following activities: mining and quarrying industry (-14.0%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-9,5%), rubber products and plastic material (-6.0%), machinery and equipment (-8.4%), food products (-1.9%), other chemicals (-1.9%), basic metals (-1.6%), textiles (-5.2%), pulp, paper and paper products (-0.9%) and non-metallic mineral products (-0.3%). The positive contributions were those of coke, petroleum products and biofuels (6.0%) and metal products (1.9%). It is also worth mentioning the results of typical inputs for civil construction (-3.9%), which interrupted a period of two consecutive months recording increase; and packaging (1.3%), which recorded increase for the third time in a row, but the lowest in the current series. 

In 2019, industry had cumulative decrease of 2.2%

In the cumulative index for January-March 2019,against the same period a year before, industry decreased by 2.2%, with negative results in the four main economic categories, 21 of the 26 subsectors, 55 of the 79 groups and 56.9% of the 805 products surveyed.

Among the activties, mining and quarrying industry (-7.5%) accounted for the main negative influence. It is also worth mentioning the subsectors: computer equipment, electronic and optical products  (-13.0%), pharmaceuticals (-10.6%), machinery and equipment (-4.6%), food products (-1.4%), other transportation equipment (-10.5%), rubber products and plastic material (-3.4%), basic metals (-1.8%), wood products (-7.9%) and pulp, paper and paper products (-2.7%). On the other hand, among the main activities recording increase, the main one was coke, petroleum products and biofuels (4.2%). Other positive contributions came from beverages (5.0%) and metal products (5.4%).

Among the main economic categories, there was reduced dynamism for capital goods (4.3%) and durable consumer goods (-3.4%), affected, mainly. b the decreases in capital goods for transportation equipment (-4.2%) and for industrial purposes (-4.9%), in the former; and “brown goods” (-16.7%),in the latter. Intermediate goods (-2.0%) and semi-durble and non-durable goods (-1.4%) also recorded decreases, but below the national average (-2.2%).

The industrial sector, having decreased by 2.2% in the first quarter of 2019, contributed to the decrease observed in the fourth quarter of 2018 (-1.2%) and maintained he decrease observed in the last quarter of 2017 (5.0%). The decrease of intensity was also observed in the main economic categories, the main highlight being capital goods (from 3.3% in Q4 2018 to -4.3% in the first three months of 2019), mainly die to the reduced production of capital goods for transportation equipment (from 6.0% to -4.2%) and for agriculture (from 28.5% to -5.3%). Durable consumer goods (from -2.5% to -3.4%), semi-durable and non-durable goods (from -0.8% to -1.4%) and intermediate goods (from -1.6% to -2.0%) had a smiliar behavior between the two periods.