The fifth estimate of 2018 for the national crop of cereals, legumes and oilseeds totaled 228.1 million metric tons, 5,2% below 2017 (240.6 million metric tons), a reduction of 12.5 million metric tons.

The estimated area to be harvested was 61.2 million hectares, an increase of just 43,260 hectares against the harvested area in 2017. IN relation to April's estimate (230.0 million metric tons), production fell 0.8%, or 1.9 million metric tons, and the area had a little increase of 4,521 hectares (0.0%). Altogether, rice, corn and soybeans are 92.9% of the production estimate and 87.0% of the area to be harvested.

In relation to 2017, there was a 2.6% increase in the soybean area and reductions of 7.3% in the corn area and of 3.6% in the rice area. The Soybean production must hit its own record with 115.8 million metric tons, 0.7% higher than last year, whereas corn and rice must fall 15.1% and 7.0%, respectively. The complete publication, time series, and presentation of the LSPA are on the right of this page.

Among the Major Regions, production was distributed as follows: Central-West (101.4 metric tons), South (75.4 metric tons), Southeast (23.1 metric tons), Northeast (19.6 metric tons) and North (8.6 metric tons).

May estimate compared to April 2018

In May, thehighlight changes in the following production estimates in relation to April were: upland cotton (4.5%), coffea canephora  (4.1%), coffea arabica (2.9%), corn 1st crop , soybeans (0.1%), beans 1st crop (-0.2%), corn 2nd crop (-3.4%), beans 3rd crop (-4.5%) and beans 2nd crop -5.1%).

UPLAND COTTON SEED – The estimated production was 4.7 metric tons, an increase of 4.5% in relation to April. The largest increases were in Mato Grosso (144.7 thousand metric tons) and in Bahia (57.5 thousand metric tons). In Mato Grosso, production was estimated at 3.1 metric tons (increase of 4.9% in relation to April) and planted area of ​​765.2 thousand hectares (increase of 5.2%). The average yield was revised down by 0.3%. Mato Grosso is the largest Brazilian producer of cotton, accounting for 66.8% of the production estimate for 2018. In Bahia, the estimated production was 1.1 metric tons, an increase of 5.7% over the previous month. The planted area increased by 1.6%, totaling 264.2 thousand hectares, and the average yield had an increase of 4.0%. The weather has benefited farms in the west of the state. 

COFFEE BEANS - estimated at 3.4 metric tons, or 57.1 million 60 kg-sacks (an increase of 3.2% over April), coffee production is a record in the time series. The average yield increased by 3.3%, due to the weather. The estimates of coffea arabica production of 2.6 metric tons or 43.4 million 60 kg sacks were up 2.9% over the previous month, with the average yield increasing by 3.2%.

For coffea canephora (conillon), the production estimate was 822.0 thousand metric tons (13.7 million 60 kg sacks), an increase of 4.1% in relation to the previous month. The planted and harvested areas increased by 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively, while the average yield increased by 3.3%. The highlight was Bahia, which raised its production estimate to 117 thousand metric tons (1.9 thousand 60 kg sacks), an increase of 38.2% over April. The average yield increased by 29.5%, with 2,438 kg/ha. The abundance and good distribution of rainfall favored Bahia's production. Together with the recovery of Espírito Santo production (+ 38.3%), after two years of drought and the good harvests of Rondônia, the largest conillon coffee production in the IBGE series is expected in 2018. These three states are expected to account for 95.8% of national production in 2018.

BEAN SEEDS - Compared to April, there was a reduction of 1,085 hectares in the estimate for the area planted with total beans. The average yield and production also suffered reductions of 2.5% and 2.8%, respectively, in their estimates. The 1st bean crop was estimated at 1.6 metric tons (-0.2% versus April). Piauí had its production estimate reduced by 15.3% in relation to the previous month, due to the declines of 10.8% in average yield and 5.0% in the harvested area. Paraíba increased the estimate for the planted area by 33.1% and the production by 31.5%, with the average yield declining 1.1%. Ceará, responsible for the largest area of ​​beans in the Northeast Region (433.3 thousand hectares), had a 2.7% reduction in this estimate, but the production estimate increased by 3.1%, with an average yield of 266 kg/ha (6.0% higher than April).

The production estimate for bean 2nd crop was 1.3 metric tons (-5.1%) and the average yield was 5.3% lower. The planted area increased by 0.1%. In Paraná, the drought affected the development of crops, and the average yield and estimated yield declined, respectively, 19.8% and 20.4%. For bean 3rd crop, the production estimate is 559.2 thousand metric tons (-4.5% vs. April), influenced by Goiás (-17.2% in the area to be planted and -16.5% in the production estimate).

CORN (grain) - The production estimate (84.6 metric tons) is 2.3% lower than in April, reflecting the reduction in the production estimate for Paraná (-2.2 metric tons or -18.3 %), which had bean second crop affected by a dry season. The estimated average yield declined 18.1%. For the bean first crop, the estimated production was 25.7 metric tons, an increase of 0.2% over the previous month. The biggest positive changes in volume of production in May, compared to April, were: Paraná (65.5 thousand metric tons), Ceará (19.9 thousand metric tons), Paraíba (16.4 thousand metric tons) and Rio Grande do Norte (3,1 thousand metric tons). Negatively, Piauí is mentioned (52,9 thousand metric tons).

For bean second crop, production was estimated at 58.9 metric tons (-3.4% in relation to April). In addition to Paraná, which reduced its production estimate to 10.0 metric tons, compared to 12.2 metric tons in April, there were decrease in Goiás (172.1 thousand metric tons), Piauí (9.2 thousand metric tons) and Tocantins (15.1 thousand metric tons). In Goiás, there were losses due to the delayed soybean planting, which may adversely affect corn second crops.

SOYBEANS (grain) – The Brazilian soybean production of 115.8 metric tons increased 0.1% in relation to the previous month, with a record national production. There were increases in Mato Grosso (+ 0.7% or 220.3 thousand metric tons), Goiás (+ 0.1% or 7.0 thousand metric tons) and Tocantins (-3.5% or 92.5 thousand metric tons) with their production reaching, respectively, 31.4, 11.7 and 2.6 metric tons. In relation to 2017, Brazilian soybean production increased by 0.7%, as a result of the planted area, which increased by 2.6%. Altogether, 34.8 million hectares were cultivated, representing 56.9% of the country's total area of cereals, legumes and oilseeds. 

May estimate in relation to the production obtained in 2017

Among the 26 products surveyed, seventeen had positive changes in the production compared to the previous year, as shown in the table below

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production - LSPA is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions - COMEAs and/or Regional Commissions - COREAs. The latter are consolidated at state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups - GCEAs and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics - CEPAGRO. This Commission is formed by representatives from the IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply - MAPA.

The surveys relative to Cereals (rice, corn, oat, rye, barley, sorghum, wheat and triticale), Legumes (peanuts and beans) and Oilseeds (cotton seed, castor beans, soybeans and sunflower) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in March, 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.