The September inflation preview showed an increase of 0.48%, following the -0.14% recorded in August. The Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), released today (25) by the IBGE, indicates that the largest change and the greatest positive impact came from the Housing group, with 3.31% and 0.50 percentage points, respectively. So far this year, the IPCA-15 has accumulated an increase of 3.76%, and in the last 12 months, the change was 5.32%, above the 4.95% observed in the previous 12 months. In September 2024, the rate had been 0.13%.
In addition to Housing, four of the nine groups of products and services surveyed increased in September: Apparel (0.97%), Health and personal care (0.36%), Personal expenses (0.20%), and Education (0.03%). Food and beverages (-0.35%), Transportation (-0.25%), Household articles (-0.16%), and Communications (-0.08%) showed negative changes.
Responsible for the largest change and the greatest impact on this month's index, the Housing group returned to growth compared to August, when it fell 1.13%. After a 4.93% drop last month, residential electricity prices, the subitem with the greatest positive impact on September's IPCA-15 (0.47 percentage points), rose 12.17%, contributing to the group's results. The Itaipu Bonus, credited to invoices issued in August, ended. Furthermore, the red tariff flag level 2, effective on September 1, added R$7.87 to the electricity bill for every 100 kWh consumed. There was also a 4.25% tariff increase in Belém (11.38%), effective on August 7th.
Also in Housing, the water and sewage rate (0.02%) was adjusted by 4.97% in Salvador (0.31%), effective on July 18th, and the increase in piped gas (0.19%) was a consequence of the 6.41% increase in bills in Curitiba (3.32%), effective on August 1st, and the average 1.22% reduction in tariffs in Rio de Janeiro (-0.66%), also effective on the same day.
The Apparel group (0.97%) saw increases in women's clothing (1.19%) and footwear and accessories (1.02%).
In Health and Personal Care (0.36%), the health plan sub-item increased 0.50%.
The price decline in Food and Beverages (-0.35%) in September was the fourth consecutive. In August, this group fell 0.53%. Food at home saw a 0.63% price decrease in September, compared to the -1.02% change observed in August. The declines in tomatoes (-17.49%), onions (-8.65%), rice (-2.91%), and ground coffee (-1.81%) had an impact on the result. Fruits stood out among the increases, with prices rising an average of 1.03%.
Regarding eating out, there was a slowdown from August (0.71%) to September (0.36%), due to less intense increases in snacks (from 1.44% in August to 0.70% in September) and meals (from 0.40% to 0.20%).
The price reduction in the Transportation group (-0.25%), in turn, was mainly driven by voluntary vehicle insurance (-5.95%) and airfare (-2.61%). Concerning fuels (-0.10%), vehicle gas (-1.55%), and gasoline (-0.13%) saw price declines, while diesel fuel (0.38%) and ethanol (0.15%) saw price increases.
Free pass on the subway (-0.67%) in Brasília (-9.85%), and on urban buses (-0.79%) in Brasília (-9.85%) and Belém (-6.27%), in addition to the fare reduction in Curitiba (-2.86%), were also factors that impacted the Transportation group. It's also worth mentioning taxi fares (4.44%), which saw an average increase of 24.53% in Belém (21.53%), effective on August 12, and 12.37% in São Paulo (10.55%), effective on August 11.
Regarding regional indices, all 11 areas surveyed saw price increases in September. The largest change was recorded in Recife (0.80%), due to increases in residential electricity (10.69%) and gasoline (4.78%). The lowest result was in Goiânia (0.10%), which saw decreases in gasoline (-2.78%) and tomato (-24.39%) prices.
More about the survey
To calculate the IPCA-15, prices were collected from August 15 to September 15 (reference) and compared with those in effect from July 16 to August 14 (base). The indicator refers to families earning between 1 and 40 minimum wages and covers the Metropolitan Areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador, and Curitiba, as well as Brasília and the municipality of Goiânia. The methodology used is the same as the IPCA's, the difference being the price collection period and geographic coverage. See the full results on Sidra. The next release of the IPCA-15, for October, will be on the 24th of the same month.