In the seasonally-adjusted series, the national industrial output declined 0.7% in October 2015 over the immediately previous month, registering the fifth consecutive negative figure and a cumulative loss of 5.7% in this period. The overall industry declined 11.2% in relation to the same month last year, recording the 20th negative rate in a row in this comparison and the steepest one since April 2009 (-14.1%). As a result, the cumulative index in the year dropped 7.8%. The cumulative index in the last 12 months declined 7.2%, posting the most intense loss since November 2009 (-9.4%) and maintaining the downward trend since March 2014 (2.1%).

Industrial Output Indicators by Major Economic Categories -
Brazil - October 2015

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria
*Seasonally-adjusted series

The industrial sector remained in a slow pace of production in October 2015, as it was the fifth consecutive negative result when compared with the immediately previous month. Negative rates also prevailed, since the four economic categories and the majority of the activities reduced their production. Considering the October´s figure, the industrial output stood 17.0% below the record level reached in June 2013. The seasonally-adjusted series pointed out the signs of lower intensity of the industrial activity, reflected in the evolution of the quarterly moving average index (-1.0%), which kept the downward trend started in October last year.

Industry declines in 15 of 24 sectors in seasonally-adjusted series

The decline of 0.7% in the industrial activity from September to October was dominated by negative figures, reaching all of the the four major economic categories and 15 out of the 24 sectors surveyed. Among the sectors, the main negative influences were registered in coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-2.7%), mining and quarrying industries (-2.0%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-3.0%) and computer, electronic and optical products (-9.4%), the first declining again after advancing 3.4% in the previous month; the second offsetting the cumulative expansion of 1.3% in August and September; the third declining for three months in a row and recording a cumulative drop of 19.3% in this period; and the last sector eliminating the expansion of 3.5% reported in September.

Other important negative contributions to the overall industry came from the activities of toiletries, soaps, personal hygiene and cleaning products (-2.4%), non-metallic minerals (-2.1%), pulp, paper and paper products (-2.3%), other transportation equipment(-3.4%) and wood products (-4.4%). Except for the first activity, which rose 0.4% last month, the other also retreated last September: -1.2%, -2.0%, -1.8% and -2.4%, respectively. Among the eight sectors that increased their production in October, the highest contribution to the overall average came from food products, which advanced 1.7% after declining 0.1% last month.

Having declined 5.6% compared with the immediately previous month, durable consumer goods posted the sharpest reduction in October 2015 among the major economic categories, registering the third consecutive negative figure and a cumulative loss of 15.8%. The segment of capital goods (-1.9%) also recorded a more intense drop than the national average (-0.7%), thus eliminating the advance of 1.3% reported last month. The sectors producing intermediate goods (-0.7%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (-0.6%) also registered negative rates in October, the former remaining down since last February and recording a cumulative reduction of 6.6%; and the latter returning to drop after increasing 0.5% in September.

Quarterly moving average declines 1.0%

Still concerning the seasonally-adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the overall industry declined 1.0% in the quarter ended in October 2015, against the level of the previous month, keeping the downward trend started in October 2014. Among the major economic categories, still in relation to the marginal movement of this index, durable consumer goods (-5.6%) and capital goods (-2.8%) posted the steepest reductions in October, the former keeping the sequence of negative rates started in December 2014 and registering a loss of 26.5%; and the latter continuing the negative behavior since October 2014 and recording a cumulative loss of 32.4% in this period.

The sectors producing intermediate goods (-0.7%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (-0.1%) also recorded negative rates in October, the former maintaining the downward trend started in October 2014; and the latter reducing the magnitude of the fall against July (-0.2%), August (-0.5%) and September (-1.1%).

Industry retreats in 24 of 26 sectors over October 2014

Compared with the same month a year ago, the industrial sector dropped 11.2% in October 2015, pointing to a widespread profile of negative figures and reaching the four major economic categories, 24 out of the 26 sectors, 69 out of the 79 groups and 77.4% out of the 805 products surveyed. It is worth mentioning that October 2015 (21 days) had less two business days than October 2014 (23). Among the activities, motor vehicles, trailers and bodies
(-34.9%) exerted the major negative influence on the industry average, pressed, at a great extent, by the reduced manufacturing of cars, trucks, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, vehicles for transportation of goods, trailers and semi-trailers, bodies for buses and trucks, and car pieces. Other relevant negative contributions came from computer, electronic and optical products (-35.8%), machinery and equipment (-18.6%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-7.6%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-20.9%), fabricated metal products (-17.2%), basic metals
(-10.8%), plastic and rubber products (-12.8%), non-metallic mineral products (-11.4%), textiles (-21.7%), printing and reproduction of recorded media (-31.9%), furniture (-24.6%), other chemicals (-5.3%), leather products, traveling items and footwear (-14.9%), other transportation equipment (-17.0%) and wearing apparel and accessories (-9.3%). In this same comparison, tobacco products (10.1%) and beverages (0.7%) increased their production in October.

Still comparing with the same month a year ago, capital goods (-32.6%) and durable consumer goods (-28.7%) registered the steepest declines in October 2015 among the major economic categories. The sectors producing intermediate goods (-7.5%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (-7.4%) also recorded negative rates this month, yet below the national average (-11.2%).

The sector of capital goods (-32.6%) posted the 20th negative rate in a row, registering a more intense drop than that reported in the previous month (-31.2%). The segment of durable consumer goods (-28.7%) recorded the 20th consecutive negative figure in this type of comparison and the most intense since June 2014 (-32.8%). The production of intermediate goods (-7.5%) posted the 19th negative rate in a row and the most intense since July 2009 (-11.1%).

The reduction in the production of semi and non-durable consumer goods (-7.4%) in October 2015 was the 12th consecutive negative rate in the comparison with the same month a year ago, virtually repeating the figures registered last August (-7.5%) and September (-7.5%). The performance in October was explained by the retractions reported by all its groups: semi-durable (-17.1%), non-durable (-9.3%), food and beverages for domestic consumption (-2.5%) and fuels (-5.1%).

Cumulative index in 2015 falls 7.8%

The cumulative index in the year dropped 7.8%. Negative rates prevailed, since the four major economic categories, 25 out of the 26 sectors, 71 out of the 79 groups and 75.5% out of the 805 products surveyed declined the production. Among the sectors, the main negative impact was seen in motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-24.6%), pushed, at a great extent, by the reduction in the production of approximately 95% of the products surveyed. Other negative contributions came from the sectors of computer, electronic and optical products (-29.2%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-6.3%), machinery and equipment (-13.6%), basic metals (-8.5%), food products (-3.1%), fabricated metal products (-11.2%), pharm-chemicals and pharmaceuticals
(-13.3%), plastic and rubber products (-8.4%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-11.0%), non-metallic mineral products (-7.0%), other chemicals
(-4.2%), wearing apparel and accessories (-10.1%) and textiles (-13.7%). The only positive influence came from mining and quarrying industries (6.3%).

Among the major economic categories, the cumulative rates in the year showed lower dynamism for capital goods (-24.5%) and durable consumer goods (-17.2%), particularly pressed by the reduction in the manufacture of capital goods for transportation equipment
(-30.2%), in the first category, and of cars (-17.6%) and household appliances (-21.9%), in the second one. The segments of semi and non-durable consumer goods (-7.2%) and intermediate goods (-4.5%) also registered negative rates in the cumulative index in the year. The former segment declining below the magnitude of the drop of the national average (-7.8%), and the latter recording the most moderate decline among the major economic categories.