In the seasonally-adjusted series, the reduced pace of the national industrial output between September and October 2015 was registered in 10 out of the 14 places surveyed, highlighted by the most intense declines in Pará (-6.0%), Paraná (-5.7%), Espírito Santo (-5.1%) and Amazonas (-4.9%). Except for Amazonas, which recorded the fifth consecutive month of drop in the production and posted a cumulative rate of -10.8% in this period, the other places had reported positive rates in September: 12.4%, 4.1% and 0.4%. Goiás (-2.2%), Rio de Janeiro (-0.9%) and Rio Grande do Sul (-0.8%) also registered more intense declines than the national average (-0.7%), whereas the Northeast Region (-0.5%), São Paulo (-0.4%) and Minas Gerais (-0.1%) were the other places that recorded negative indexes in October 2015. On the other hand, Bahia (2.2%) and Ceará (0.9%) recorded the highest advances in October, the former offsetting part of the cumulative loss of 9.0% between August and September, and the latter returning part of the decline of 1.9% posted in the previous month. The other positive figures were reported in Pernambuco (0.3%) and Santa Catarina (0.2%).

The complete publication of the survey can be accessed here.

Short-term Indicators of Industry
Regional Results
October 2015

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria
* Seasonally-adjusted series

Still concerning the seasonally-adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the overall industry pointed to a decline of 1.0% in the quarter ended in October 2015 over the previous month and maintained the downward trend started in October 2014. In regional terms, still in relation to the marginal movement of this index, 11 places registered negative rates, highlighted by the sharp declines reported by Amazonas (-2.6%), Bahia (-2.4%), Rio de Janeiro (-2.1%), Goiás (-2.0%), Espírito Santo (-2.0%), Rio Grande do Sul (-1.7%) and the Northeast Region (-1.6%). Having expanded 0.7%, Ceará recorded the main advance in October 2015.

In the comparison with the same month of the previous year, the industrial sector reduced 11.2% in October 2015, showing negative figures in 13 out of the 15 places surveyed. It is worth mentioning that October 2015 (21 days) had less two business days than the same month in the previous year (23). In October, the most intense decline was reported in Amazonas (-20.6%). Rio Grande do Sul (-16.6%), Paraná (-14.3%) and São Paulo (-12.9%) also posted steeper negative figures than the national average (-11.2%), whereas Santa Catarina (-11.1%), Rio de Janeiro (-11.1%), Ceará (-9.3%), Bahia (-8.9%), Goiás (-7.8%), Minas Gerais (-7.7%), the Northeast Region (-6.4%), Espírito Santo (-5.2%) and Pernambuco (-4.2%) were the other places that registered negative rates in October. On the other hand, Mato Grosso (4.6%) and Pará (3.5%) registered advances in October.

In the cumulative indicator in the January-October 2015 period, against the same period last year, the reduced overall production reached 12 out of the 15 places surveyed, six of them declining more than the industry average (-7.8%): Amazonas (-15.1%), Rio Grande do Sul (-11.8%), São Paulo (-10.5%), Ceará (-9.4%), Paraná (-8.5%) and Santa Catarina (-8.0%). Minas Gerais (-7.3%), Bahia (-6.4%), Rio de Janeiro (-6.3%), the Northeast Region (-4.5%), Pernambuco (-3.4%) and Goiás (-1.8%) were the other places that reported negative figures at the end of the tenth month of the year. Conversely, Espírito Santo (9.5%) and Pará (5.9%) posted the most intense advances in the cumulative index in the year, leveraged, at a great extent, by the positive behavior coming from the mining and quarrying sector, whereas Mato Grosso (3.4%) reported a more moderate advance.

As the overall industry declined 7.2% in October 2015, the annualized rate – cumulative indicator in the last 12 months – posted the most intense drop since November 2009 (-9.4%) and kept the downward trend started in March 2014 (2.1%). In regional terms, 12 out of the 15 places surveyed recorded negative rates in October 2015 and 13 showed lower dynamism against the index of last September. The main downturns between September and October were registered in Goiás (from 0.7% to -1.1%), Espírito Santo (from 11.5% to 9.9%), Bahia (from -4.0% to -5.5%), Rio Grande do Sul (from -9.3% to -10.4%), Amazonas (from -13.5% to -14.5%) and the Northeast Region (from -3.0% to -3.9%), whereas Mato Grosso (from 3.9% to 4.0%) and Pernambuco (from -3.8% to -3.7%) recorded the gains between the two periods.