The third estimate for the 2017 national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds amounted to 230.3 milllion metric tons, 25.1% above the figure recorded in 2016 (184.0 million metric tons). The estimated area to be harvested is 60.7 million hectares, with an increase of 6.3% versus the 2016 figure (57.1 million hectares). In comparison with February results, the output estimate increased 2.7%, and the area, 0.6%. Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main crops from this group and, together, accounted for 93.5% of the output and for 87.7% of the area to be harvested. Against the previous year, there was increase of 2.% in the areas for soybeans, corn and rice crops (2.5%, 14.¨% and 3.9%, respectively). With regard to output, the same products recorded increases of 15.9%, 13.9% and 45.8%.  The complete publication is available here.

In the evaluation for 2017, Mato Grosso was the leader as the main national producer of grains, with a contribution of 25.3%, followed by Paraná (18.3%) and Rio Grande do Sul (14.8%), which, together, accounted for 58.4% of the amount expected at national level. Other important states in terms of grain production were Goiás (9.9%), Mato Grosso do Sul (7.5%), Minas Gerais (5.9%), São Paulo (3.5%), Bahia (3.4%), Santa Catarina (2.9%) and Maranhão (2.1%) which also belong to the group of ten major producers in the country.

March estimate for the 2017 harvest is 2.7% bigger than in February

In the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production of March, the highlights were changes in the following output estimates, in comparison with February figures: barley (6.7%), corn - 2nd crop (6.0%), coffee - canephora (4.8%), rice (2.5%), onion (2.4%), soybean (2.3%), sorgohum (1.7%), corn - 1st crop (1.4%), oat (-1.0%), beans - 1st crop (-1.2%) and wheat (-10.5%).

PADDY RICE - The March estimate for the area to be harvested amounted to 2,014,307 hectares, with expected output of 12,053,519 metric tons and an average yield of 5,984 kg/ha, respectively 1.9%, 2.5% and 0.6% bigger than in the previous year. The GCEA/RS estimates for Rio Grande do Sul, the main producer in the country, with 70.9% of the national output, a total 8,540,078 metric tons, in an area to be harvested of 1,102,346 hectares and an expected average yield of 7,747 kg/ha. Climate conditions in the last two weeks have favored harvesting, now totalling 49,0%. Santa Catarina, number two in terms of national output, expects to harvest 1,102,206 metric tons, in an area to be harvested of 147,745 hectares and an average yield of 7,460 kg/ha, respectively bigger than figires of the previous month by 2.2%, 0.1% and 2.1%.

COFFEE BEAN - The output estimate for canephora (conillon) reached 566,315 metric tons, or 9.4 million 60-kg sacks, with a increase of 4.8% versus the February figure. Although the area to be harvested has been reduced by 0.7%, o rthe average yield increased 5.5%, du to th good performance of crops in Rondônia, the second main producer in the country. Espírito Santo is the principal producer in Brazil, and accounts for 59.9% of the total amount expected for 2017. In 2015 and 2016, as a consequence of the drought that affected the main producing areas in the state, crops were damaged at diffrent levels by the harsh climate conditions. Many crops had no recovery and had to be replanted. Th e estimated overall output for coffee in the country, considering canephora and arabica types was 2,735,797 metric tons, or 45.6 million 60 kg sacks, with increase of 1.5% in comparison with the previous month. The output estimate for coffee - arabica reached 1,169,482 metric tons, or 36.2 milllion sacks. That represented an increase of 0.7% versus the result of February.

BEANS - 1st crop - The 1st crop of beans was estimated at 1,563,497 metric tons. There was decrease versus the February estimate, in terms of average yield, although the harvested area is 0.2% bigger. The reduced estimate in terms of 1st harvest beans results mainly from the decreases in Bahia (7.8%) and Minas Gerais (5.2%), respectively. The output estimates for beans, total fell 0.5% in March. However, the estimated output is 3,368,982 metric tons, 31.0% above that of 2016.

CORN GRAIN - Differently from what was observed in the previous year the national output of corn in 2017 is expected to reach 92,370,829 metric tons, with an increase of 4.4% in relation to the February figure. This increase results both from the bigger output estimate of corn-1st crop, and from the 'little harvest' corn (grain produced out of season, from January to April) compared with February figures. The estimated output of 1st-crop corn changed to 30,241,939 metric tons, 1.4% when compared to the estimate calculated in February. The increase was once more influenced by the revision of average yield in the South Region (3.8%), responsible for the bigger output volume in the summer harvest, which is supposed to reach 13,527,280 metric tons, accounting for 44.7% of the national total. The output of corn-2nd crop, increased 6.0% in comparison with the pamount estimated in the previous year, 62,128,890 metric tons, a figure which representes 67.3% of the national output in 2017. The Central West Region must account for 66.3% of this volume, with 41,217,522 metric tons, an increase of 7.0% in comparison with the estimate of the previous month. The estimated output of Mato Grosso, th main producer of little harvest corn, with 38.7% of th national output, is expectd to reach 24,074,228 metric tons, mainly due to a 10.3% increase in the area to be harvested. In Paraná, there was an estimatd increase of 3.0% in the planted area, which had a direct effect on the output volume, the second highest one in the country (13,665,541 metric tons), with increase of 2.2% over the February result. Minas Gerais also had an estimated increase of output (15.4%), in relation to the survey of the previous year, amounting to 1,926,245 metric tons.

SOYBEAN GRAIN - With harvesting already advanced in the main producing states of the central southern part of Brazil, a record harvest is expected for 2017, with a total 110,935,272 metric tons, a figure 2.3% bigger that that of February (increase of 2.5 milllion metric tons). The average yield rose 1.8%. Mato Grosso, the main soybean producer in the country, increased its output estimate by 3.5%, and reached a total 30,952,147 metric tons, a new record for the state, which is responsible for 27.9% of all the soybean produced in Brazil. This month the estimated average yield recorded increase of 1.9% and reached 3,295 kg/ha, or 54.9 sacks/há in the state average, a new record against the 3,223 kg/ha (53.7 sacks/ha) of 2011. The xpected record harvests in Brazil and in the USA have influenced prices in international stock markets.

SORGHUM GRAIN - The estimated output of sorghum in 2017 is 1,931,044 metric tons, with an increase of 1.7% in comparison with the previous month. For panted area and average yield, there were also increases: of 0.5% and 1.3%, respectively. Goiás, the main producer, with participation of 44.4% in the total amount to be produced in the country, reduced its estimated planted area by 0.1%, and had an estimated increase of average yield (2.6%). So, its overall production is expected to be 2.5% bigger. State production is believed to hit 857,645 metric tons.

Output estimates in March versus 2016 figures

Among the twenty-six main products, fifteen recorded positive changes in the output estimate versus the previous year: upland cottonseed (7.3%), peanuts in the shell - 2nd crop (35.7%), paddy rice (13.9%), potato - 1st crop (5.9%), potato - 2nd crop (5.2%), cacao nut (10.0%), coffee bean -canephora (20.9%), onion (2.6%), bean seed - 1st crop (38.5%), bean seed - 2nd crop (37.7%), corn grain - 1st crop (24.4%), corn grain - 2nd crop (59.2%), soybean grain (15.9%), sorghum grain (65.2%) and triticale grain (11.9%). Eleven products recorded negative changes: peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (-2.4%), oat grain (-21.3%), potato - 3rd crop (-16.1%), coffee bean - arabica (-16.1%), sugarcane (-1.2%), barley grain (-5.1%), bean seed - 3rd crop (-0.5%), orange (-7.3%), castor bean (-45.9%), cassava (-12.6%) and wheat grain (-13.8%).