The second estimate for the 2016 harvest shows that the output of cereals, legumes and oilseeds was estimated at 209.3 million metric tons, 0.5% below the total in the 2015 harvest. This decrease resulted from the lowest ouputs expected for the North Region (-7.7%), Southeast (-0.3%), South (-0.9%) and Central West (-1.9%).

Considering the current harvest, the November 2015 estimate for the national output of cereals, legumes and oilseeds amounted to 210.3 million metric tons, 8.1% above that of 2014 (194.6 million metric tons) and 332,784 metric tons (-0.2%) below the October evaluation. The estimated area to be harvested is 57.7 million hectares, presenting increase of 1.8% in comparison with the area harvested in 2014 (56.7 million hectares), and decrease of 76,306 hectares versus that of the previous month (-0.1%). Rice, corn and soybeans, the three main products of this group, represented, together, 92.8% of the estimated output and made up 86.3% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year, there were decreases of area by 5.9% for soybeans, 0.9% for corn and decrease for rice, by 8.3%. With reference to output, there were increases of 1.2% for rice, 11.7% for soybeans and 7.3% for corn. The complete publication can be seen here.

Cereals, legumes and oilseeds
Major Regions
Participation in production
October 2015

Northeast

Cereals, legumes and oilseeds
Federation Units
Participation in production
October 2015

Among the Major Regions, the volume of production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presented the following distribution: Central West, 89.8 million metric tons; South, 76.7 million metric tons; Southeast, 19.4 million metric tons; Northeast, 16.7 million metric tons and North, 7.6 million metric tons. In comparison with the previous harvest, there were increments of 20.6% in the North Region; of 5.7% in the Northeast; of 5.2% in the Southeast; of 8.0% in the South and of 8.2% in the Central West. In this evaluation for 2015, Mato Grosso was the leader as the main producer of grain, with participation of 24.8%, followed by Paraná (17.9%) and Rio Grande do Sul (15.4%), which, together, accounted for 58.1% of the estimated output.

November 2015 estimate versus 2014 output

In comparison with October, the highlights were changes in the following output estimates: beans - 1st crop (7.5%), onions (+1.3%), oats (0.9%), rice (-1.7%), wheat (-1.7%), potatoes - 3rd crop (-2.1%), cacao (-2.1%), cassava (-2.6%), triticale (-5.0%), castor beans (-8.6%) and barley (-25.6%).

RICE - The estimated rice output for 2015 reached 12.3 million metric tons, with decrease of 1.7% in relation to the previous month. The planted area and the harvested were reduced by 2.3%, whereas the average yield increased by 0.7%.

POTATOES 3rd CROP - The estimated output of potatoes - 3rd crop in November was 827,940 metric tons, with decrease of 2.1% in relation to the figure of last month. Planted area decreased by 5.4% and the average yield increased 3.5%. These data reflect the estimates of Goiás, where there was decrease of 19.6% in the estimated planted area, and of 10.6% in output, despite the expected increase of 11.1% in the average yield. In Minas Gerais, which accounted for 36.4% of the output in this 3rd crop, there was no significant change in the estimate.

GRAIN BEANS - In comparison with the October rate, the estimate for the area to be harvested with beans increased 0.8% and the average yield, 2.3%, increasing, as a result, the output estimate, which rose 3.2%. In this survey, the main producers are Paraná, with 23.2%, Minas Gerais, with 16.2% and Bahia, with 13.9% of participation in the national output.

Beans - 1st crop is estimated at 1,353,848 metric tons, which represents an increase of 7.5% in comparison with the October estimate and reflects the increase of the estimated average yield (5.3%) and planted area (2.3%). In the November estimate, the biggest producers of this crop of beans are Paraná (24.5%), Bahia (17.7%) and Minas Gerais (12.0%). The increase in the output estimate for beans - 1st crop, especially in the state of Bahia, where there was increase of 16.0% in the planted area in an irrigation location. That influenced the increase of yield estimate by 53.3% and led the output estimate to be 76.9% bigger.

WINTER CEREALS (grain) - With the approaching harvest in the main producing areas, wheat should close 2015 with a production estimate of 6.1 million tonnes, a drop of 1.7% in relation to the previous month. The crops were severely affected by excessive rainfall in the South Region. The producers reported an increase in the incidence of fungal diseases, notably, the wheat leaf rust wheat blast, and they had difficulty to treat crops, due to traffic difficulties and harvesting problems in harvesting, in relation to the high moisture of panicles.

In relation to barley, the excessive rainfall was also harmful to crops, and the estimated output dropped by 25.6%, reflecting the average yield, which was reduced by 24.2%. The data reflected Paraná, which in November had their data adjusted by GCEA, which reduced the estimated output by 35.6%,also reporting a drop of 3.1% in the planted area and in the area to be harvested.

In relation to oat, the estimated output reaches is 522.4 thousand metric tons, a growth of 0.9% in relation to the previous year. The planted area and the area to be harvested increased by 4.9% and 4.6%, respectively. In November, the data were influenced by the first production reports from the State of São Paulo.

As to triticale, the expected production reaches 92.5 thousand metric tons, a drop of 5.0% in relation to the previous month, mainly due to the decrease of 4.9% in the average yield. The data were influenced by Paraná, GCEA informed a decrease of 15.9% in the estimated output in relation to October, in relation to the forecast of reduction of 15.5% in the average yield.

November 2015 estimate versus 2014 output

Among the 26 major products, seven registered a positive change in the production estimate over the previous year: paddy rice (1.2%), oat grain (20.9%), potatoes - 3rd crop (3.0%), castor beans (103.7%), corn grain - 2nd crop (14.9%), soybean grain (11.7%) and triticale grain (78.4%). Nineteen products recorded negative changes: upland cottonseed (2.5%), peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (10.2%), peanuts in the shell – 2nd crop (38.9%), potatoes- 1st crop (1.1%), potatoes - 2nd crop (1.6%), cacao nuts (6.7%), coffee beans (arabica) (1.7%), coffee beans (canephora) (17.7%), sugarcane (4.3%), onions (1.3%), barley grain (14.8%), bean seed - 1st crop (3.7%), bean seed - 2nd crop (6.3%), bean seed - 3rd crop (2.0%), oranges (3.7%), cassava (0.7%), corn grain 1st crop (4.7%), sorghum grain (7.3%) and wheat grain (2.0%).

Prospects for 2016 harvest

UPLAND COTTONSED – The low prices of cotton paid for all crops in 2015 and the still high world stock, of approximately 21.8 million metric tons of cotton lint, according to the Comitê Consultivo Internacional do AlgodãoInternational Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), the planting of this crop has been facing a widespread downfall. As the Brazilian cotton producers benefit themselves from the appreciation of the dollar, the forecast indicates stability of the planted area for the 2016 crops. However, the estimated production is getting reduced by 4.9%, due to the drop of 4.8% in the yield. Mato Grosso and Bahia, the two main producers faced a delay in planting, due to the delay of rainfall. Mato Grosso estimates a reduction of 5.4% of the average yield in comparison to the previous year, whereas Bahia estimates a drop of 4.9% in this same variable. The production of Mato Grosso was estimated in 2016 by GCEA/MT at 2.4 million metric tons, 2.3% smaller than in 2015. Bahia expects to harvest 1.1 million tons, a production 8.9% smaller.

ARROZ (em casca) – The first estimated output of rice for 2016 reached 12.2 million metric tons, a reduction of 0.7% versus the 2015 output. The area to be planted reached 2.266.933 hectares, representing an increase of 4.4%, whereas the expected average yield (5.401 kg/ha) fell by 5.9%.  The data are mainly influenced by Rio Grande do Sul, the main producer in the country accounting for 68.5% of the total estimated output, which expects a retraction of 3.4% in the planted area, with the production dropping at the same percentage. The expected average yield presents a drop of 0.6% reaching 7.694 kg/ha. In 2015, the production of rice in the state was benefited by the high levels of irrigation shells and the favorable weather during the harvesting, which also helped improve the quality of the harvested product. Santa Catarina, the second biggest producer in the country, expects a production of 1.1 million metric tons, an increase of 1.4% in relation to 2015. The average yield is estimated to grow 1.8% reaching 7.404 kg/ha.

In Mato Grosso, the planted area and the average yield should drop 4.8% and 0.4%, respectively. The expected production presents a drop of 5.2%, reflecting the reduction of openings of new areas for use in agriculture.

BEANS 1st crop (grain) – The second estimate for área to be planted, 1,736,477 hectares, is 1.5% smaller than in 2015. In the to be harvested a growth of 8.8% is expected, since many crops in the Northeast Region were affected by droughts in 2015. The average yield might present a growth of 6.5%, as long as the weather conditions favor the development of crops. In relation to the production of bean seed - 1st crop - for 2016, the forecast is 1,558,007 metric tons, being 15.1% above the 2015 harvest. This growth should, in part, offset the production loss that took place in 2015. Paraná was the biggest producer in this harvest, with 21.6% of the national output.

CORN 1st harvest (grain) – Data of November show, once more, decrease for the production of corn – 1st crop, which should reach 28.8 million metric tons, a drop of 2.3% in relation to 2015. The planted area is expected to fall by 5.8%, due to the expected growth of the area planted with soybeans, a crop which used the same area and has brought more proft to producers. With information from GCEA/MG, Minas Gerais became the main producer of corn grain - 1st crop, accounting for 18.1% of the national volume of the product for this planting season.

Rio Grande do Sul was the second main Brazilian producer, although in the last few years the state has faced unfavorable weather conditions. The expected production is 4.8 million metric tons, a drop of 14.4% in comparison to the previous year. The planted area is estimated at 755.3 thousand hectares, 12.5% smaller. The GCEA of Paraná, the third biggest Brazilian producer, has estimated a reduction of 19.2% in the area to be planted, estimating a drop of same value in the 2016 output, and 3.8 million metric tons of corn are expected in the first crop.

SOYBEANS (grain) – One more production record is expected for soybeans in 2016. The estimated production is 101.5 million metric tons, 4.7% greater than that in 2015. Mato Grosso, Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul are the three main states accounting for the increase of the estimated production. The main national producer, Mato Grosso, had its estimated production increased by 2.5%, due to the increase of 2.4% of the planted area with the legumes. For the State the expected production is 28.5 million metric tons. Paraná, the second biggest producer, had its production estimate increased by 6.5%, totaling 18.3 million metric tons. GCEA/PR also increased by 2.9% the estimated area to be harvested and planted and by 3.4% the average yield. As to the Rio Grande do Sul, LAECS/RS estimated an increase of 1.6% in the estimated output, which should reach 16.0 million metric tons, due to the growth of 2.9% in the planted area; of 3.0% in area to be harvested, despite a reduction of 1.2% in the average yield.

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). Due to users’ needs of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals (rice, corn, oat, rye, barley, sorghum, wheat and triticale), Legumes (peanuts and beans) and Oilseeds (cotton seed, castor beans, soybeans and sunflower) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in March, 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.

Social Communication
11 December 2015