* Seasonal adjustment

In the seasonally-adjusted series, the retail trade in Brazil registered a rate of -0.2% for volume of sales and of 0.1% for nominal revenue in the second month of 2017, both rates in relation to January 2017. Concerning volume of sales, the result was once again negative, though not exerting any effect on the moving average, which remained positive for the second month in a row: 1.0% in February and 1.4% in January. In terms of volume of sales, the national retail retreated 3.2% over February 2016, recording the 23rd consecutive negative rate in this comparison. As a result, the retail trade posted a cumulative reduction of 2.2% in the first two months of 2017 and a cumulative rate in the last 12 months of -5.4%. For these same indicators in February 2017, nominal revenue of sales changed 0.4% compared with the same period in 2016 and registered a cumulative rate of 2.1% in the year and of 4.2% in the last 12 months.

In the seasonally-adjusted series, the extended retail trade – which includes the activities of Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and of Construction material in addition to those of retail – posted a positive figure over the previous month, reporting a change of 1.4% in volume of sales and of 1.0% in nominal revenue of sales. Regarding volume of sales, the positive index for the fourth time in a row maintained the moving average positive also for the fourth consecutive month (1.5% in February 2017). In relation to February last year, the extended retail trade fell 4.2% in volume of sales and 1.7% in nominal revenue of sales. As to the cumulative rates, the changes were of -2.1% in the year and of -7.5% in the last 12 months for volume of sales, and of 0.8% and of -0.3% for nominal revenue, respectively. The complete publication of the survey can be accessed here.

5 of 8 activities surveyed change positively

In the seasonally-adjusted series, the rate of -0.2% in volume of sales of the retail trade between January and February 2017 pointed out a prevalence of positive figures among the activities that comprise the retail. In sectoral terms, the five segments that advanced, in order of magnitude of rate, were: Furniture and household appliances (3.8%); Fabric, apparel and footwear (1.5%); Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (1.4%);Pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics (1.0%); and Fuels and lubricants(0.6%). In the same comparison, the activities that posted negative rates were: Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (-0.5%); Office, computer and communication material and equipment(-1.5%); and Other personal and household articles (-1.8%).

TABLE 1
BRAZIL - INDICATORS OF VOLUME OF SALES OF THE RETAIL TRADE AND EXTENDED RETAIL TRADE
ACCORDING TO GROUPS OF ACTIVITY: PMC - February 2017

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio.
(1) Seasonally-adjusted series. (2) The indicator of the retail trade comprises the results of the activities numbered from 1 to 8.
(2) The indicator of the extended retail trade comprises the results of the activities numbered from 1 to 10.

Compared with the same month a year ago, the volume of the retail trade retreated 3.2%, registering the third negative rate in a row. Among the retail activities, seven of them recorded negative changes, in order of contribution to the overall rate: Fuels and lubricants (-8.5%); Other personal and household articles (-7.7%);Pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics (-5.1%); Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (-0.3%); Furniture and household appliances (-3.4%);Office, computer and communication material and equipment(-11.9%); and Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-7.0%). The activity of Fabric, apparel and footwear (3.6%) performed positively in relation to the same month last year.

Having changed -8.5% in volume of sales over the same month a year ago, the activity of Fuels and lubricantswas responsible for the biggest negative impact on the overall result. This activity had been dropping since January 2015, even with declining prices. In the cumulative index in 12 months, the prices were below the overall average of this sector (0.9% against 4.8% of the overall index, according to the IPCA). This segment stayed at -7.2% in the cumulative index in the year and at -8.9% in the last 12 months.

Other personal and household articles – which includes department, jewelry, sports and toys stores – retreated 7.7% compared with February 2016, posting the 19th consecutive negative month and standing below the overall average of the retail (-3.2%). Considering the performance in January, this sector exerted the second biggest negative influence on the overall rate. The cumulative rate in the first two months of the year stayed at -5.2% and, in the last 12 months, at -8.3%.

The volume of sales of the segment of Pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics fell 5.1% in relation to February 2016. In spite of its essential nature, this sector registered the 11th consecutive negative rate in February 2017, maintaining the downward trend since April 2016, when the price adjustments in this sector began. According to the IPCA, the prices of pharmaceuticals in 12 months rose 12.7% against 4.8% of the overall index.  The two-month cumulative rate stayed at -3.6% and, in 12 months, at -3.1%.

Having its volume of sales reduced by -0.3% over February 2016, the sector of Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco was the activity that exerted the fourth negative impact on the overall performance of the retail. This sector did not record any cumulative rate (0.0%) in the first two months of the year and dropped 2.5% in the last 12 months. The performance of this activity stood above that posted by the retail (-3.2%) in every comparison. The result of this segment was directly influenced by the average usual real wage bill of workers and by the unemployment rate. According to the Continuous PNAD, the former remained stable in the moving quarter of Dec-Jan-Feb 2017 against the same quarter last year. The same source pointed out that the unemployment rate grew 2.9 percentage points in the same period.

The segment of Furniture and household appliances changed -3.4% in volume of sales in relation to February last year. The cumulative figures in the first two month of the year and in the last 12 months of this activity were 0.5% and -9.5%, respectively.

Having dropped -11.9% in volume of sales compared with the same month a year ago, the activity of Office, computer and communication material and equipment registered the 20th consecutive retreat in this comparison. As to the cumulative figures, a drop of -9.3% was reported in the first two months of the year and of -10.3% in the last 12 months. This activity was influenced by the behavior of the usual real wage bill of the population and of the unemployment rate of workers.  When the former started to fall and the unemployment rate started to increase, the sales of these products was affected, as they are durable goods that do not need constant replacement, in addition to be non-essential.

The activity of Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery changed -7.0% in volume of sales over February 2016, registering the 37th consecutive drop in this sector. Besides being influenced by the decrease of the real earnings of the population, the sales of such products was also being affected by the replacement of printed products by electronic ones, particularly in the case of books, newspapers and magazines. The cumulative rates in the year and in 12 months were: -8.5% and -14.8%, respectively. 

The group of Fabric, apparel and footwear advanced 3.6% when compared with February 2016, interrupting 26 consecutive months of negative results and standing above the overall average of the retail (-3.2%). The two-month cumulative rate was 1.2% and, for the last 12 months, -9.2%. The positive result of this activity was influenced by the prices of wearing apparel, which rose 3.0% in 12 months against 4.8% of the general index – according to the IPCA –, and by the summer sale of resellers of such products.

In the seasonally-adjusted series, the Extended retail trade – which comprises the retail plus the activities ofVehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and Construction material  – rose in volume of sales and nominal revenue in relation to the previous month, by 1.4% and 1.0%, respectively. Compared with the same month a year ago (seasonally unadjusted), the changes were -4.2% for volume of sales and -1.7% for nominal revenue. In terms of volume of sales, the cumulative rates were -2.1% in the year and -7.5% in the last 12 months and, in terms of nominal revenue, the same indicators changed 0.8% and -0.3%, respectively.

In the seasonally-adjusted series, the performance of this sector reflected, above all, the behavior of the sales of Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces, which registered a rate of 0.1% for volume of sales over January 2017, being the third positive rate in a row. Compared with February 2016, the rate was -13.6%, remaining negative for the 36th consecutive month. In cumulative terms, the changes were: -8.5% in the first two months and -13.1% in the last 12 months. The dropping sales in this segment was associated with the lower pace of the economic activity, as well as with other factors, like less credit[1] and budget restrictions of households.

Concerning the segment of Construction material, which weights less in the structure of the extended retail, the seasonally-adjusted change for volume of sales between January and February 2017 was of -1.3% over the previous month, returning to the negative side after three positive months in a row. Volume of sales changed -2.0% in relation to February 2016. The cumulative changes were of 1.4% in the bimester and of -8.2% in the last 12 months. The performance of this activity was also influenced by the lower pace of credit and by the budget restrictions of households.

[1] ^{According to the Central Bank, the credit balance with free resources  dropped -4.6% in February 2017 in terms of the cumulative index in 12 months.}

TABLE 3
BRAZIL - COMPOSITION OF THE MONTHLY RATE OF THE RETAIL TRADE,
BY ACTIVITY: PMC - February 2017
(Indicators of volume of sales)

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio.
Note: The composition of the monthly rate corresponds to the contribution of the sectoral results to the overall rate.

Sales retreat in 11 of 27 Federation Units

In the seasonally-adjusted series, sales of the Retail trade retreated in 11 out of the 27 Federation Units between January and February 2017. The biggest negative changes were reported in Mato Grosso (-4.7%), Rio Grande do Sul (-4.4%) and Goiás (-4.2%).

In the seasonally-unadjusted series, the comparison between February 2017 and the same month a year ago in volume of sales recorded negative figures in 21 out of the 27 Federation Units, highlighted by Goiás (-15.0%), Tocantins (-14.9%) and Pará (-14.0%) (Graph 6). On the other hand, Mato Grosso do Sul (19.1%) and Santa Catarina (10.6%) posted advances in volume of sales. Concerning the contribution to the negative rate of retail, the highlights were, in order: São Paulo (-3.0%) and Rio de Janeiro (-6.6%).

In the extended retail trade, 20 states registered negative changes in volume of sales in February 2017 compared with the same period last year. The biggest drops were reported in Rondônia  (-18.8%), Pará (-13.0%), Piauí (-12.7%) and Tocantins (-11.9%). Concerning the contribution to the negative rate of the extended retail, the highlights were, in order: São Paulo (-6.5%) and Rio de Janeiro (-1.2%).

Social Communication
April 12, 2017