The industry prices changed 1.77% in October 2015 in relation
to the previous month, registering a decrease over September (2.99%). The cumulative indicator in the year was 9.67%, against 7.75% in September. The cumulative indicator in 12 months was 10.90%, against 9.40% in September. Among the 24 activities of the mining and manufacturing industries, 17 recorded positive changes in the prices, against 22 in the previous month.

The Producer Price Index (IPP) measures the evolution of the prices of products 'at the factory gate', discounted taxes and freight. The complete publication of the IPP can be accessed here.

Table 1
Producer Price Indexes, according to Overall Industry and Sections
Last three months

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria.

The four biggest changes were registered in beverages (9.62%), toiletries , soaps and cleaning products (4.31%), wood (-3.27%) and fabricated metal products (3.02%). The biggest influences on the 1.77% rate came from food products (0.54 p.p.), other chemicals (0.31 p.p.), petroleum refining and ethanol products (0.28 p.p.) and beverages (0.28 p.p.).

The cumulative index in the year was 9.67% in October 2015. against 7.75% in September 2015. The highest changes in this indicator were: other transportation equipment (33.75%), tobacco (32.30%), pulp and paper (23.57%) and other chemicals (15.78%) (table 2).

The biggest influences came from food products (2.52 p.p.), other chemicals (1.64 p.p.), pulp and paper (0.80 p.p.) and other transportation equipment (0.71 p.p.).

Table 2
Producer Price Indexes, according to Industry Sections and Activities (%)
2015

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria.

In relation to October 2014 (table 2), the price change was 10.90%, against 9.40% in September 2015. The four highest rises were recorded in other transportation equipment (39.82%), tobacco (38.93%), pulp and paper (29.17%) and wood (17.65%). The sectors that exerted the greatest influence were food products (2.88 p.p.), other chemicals (1.64 p.p.), pulp and paper (0.96 p.p.) and motor vehicles (0.82 p.p.).

Table 3
Producer Price Indexes, according to Industry Sections and Activities - Influence (p.p) and Weighting (%)
2015

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria.

In October 2015. the price change of 1.77% against September reflected in the Major Economic Categories like this (table 4): 0.30% in capital goods; 1.71% in intermediate goods; and 2.27% in consumer goods, being 0.53% registered in durable consumer goods and 2.81% in semi and non-durable consumer goods.

Table 4
Producer Price Indexes, according to Overall Industry and Major Economic Categories
Last three months

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria.

The influence of the Major Economic Categories on the overall industry (1.77%) was: 0.03 p.p. from capital goods, 0.98 p.p. from intermediate goods and 0.77 p.p. from consumer goods. In the case of consumer goods, 0.73 p.p. was due to the prices of semi and non-durable consumer goods and 0.04 p.p., to the prices of durable consumer goods.

Table 5
Producer Price Indexes, according to Major Economic Categories- Influence (p.p) and Weighting (%)
2015

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria.

The price changes of industry recorded a cumulative rate of 9.67% in the year, being 12.74% from capital goods (influencing 1.07 p.p.), 10.25% from intermediate goods (5.84 p.p.) and 7.95% from consumer goods (2.75 p.p.). This increase had the influence of 0.50 p.p. exerted by the products of 'durable consumer goods' and of 2.25 p.p., of 'semi and non-durable consumer goods'.

In the cumulative index in 12 months in industry (10.90%), the changes were: capital goods, 15.52% (1.29 p.p.); intermediate goods, 10.91% (6.25 p.p.); and consumer goods, 9.75% (3.35 p.p.), being the influence of 'durable consumer goods' 0.62 p.p. and that of 'semi and non-durable consumer goods', 2.73 p.p.

17 of 24 industrial activities rise

The following analysis details the seven sectors that were among the four main highlights in terms of influence in the three comparisons in October 2015.

Food products: the prices of food products rose 2.79%, in October in relation to September 2015. Close to half the figure reported in September (5.47%), the October´s figure increased the cumulative index in the year to 13.21%, the highest result since December 2012 (14.86%). In other words, since 2012 the current figure is only lower than an annual index (that of 2012). The prices were 15.20% higher in relation to October 2014. the highest result in this comparison since September 2012 (15.36%).

Four products exerted an influence of 1.87 p.p. on the monthly figure (2.79%), all of them related to the production of soybeans ('residue of soybean oil extraction' and 'refined soybean oil') or of sugarcane ('crystallized sugar' and 'demerara sugar, including VHP sugar'). Sugarcane-based products were also among the four highest changes, which was not the case of soybean-based products, replaced by 'fresh or chilled pork' and 'cocoa butter'. All the changes were positive, except for 'demerara sugar, including VHP sugar', which had a widespread fall among the producing companies.

In addition to 'residue of soybean oil extraction' and 'crystallized sugar', 'concentrated orange juice' and 'frozen meat' stood out in terms of influence in the cumulative indexes in the year and in 12 months.

Beverages: this sector recorded an increase of 9.62% in October 2015. the highest one since the beginning of the IPP and 9.21 p.p. above the September´s index. Considering the October´s index, this sector posted a cumulative increase of 13.21% since January 2015 and of 12.94% since October 2014. As a result of price repositioning for Christmas sales, this sector registered the highest increase among the producer prices of the manufacturing industry.

This sector contributed with 0.28 p.p. to the change of 1.77% of the industry. Its influence on the cumulative rate in the year (9.67%) was 0.34 p.p. and, on the cumulative rate in the last 12 months (10.90%), 0.39 p.p.

Pulp and paper: This sector registered a rise of 0.39% in October 2015. the lowest average increase of producer price of this sector in the last 12 months, representing a drop of 4.86 p.p. over the September´s index. This sector recorded the third highest cumulative producer price index in the year (23.57%) since January 2015. and the third highest index since October 2014 (29.17%).

The sector of Pulp and Paper contributed with 0.01 p.p to the total change of the mining and manufacturing industries in October (1.77%); with 0.80 p.p. to the cumulative change in the year (9.67%); and with 0.96 p.p. to the change in the last 12 months (10.90%).

Petroleum refining and alcohol products: The change in relation to September (2.77%) was the third highest in the time series. The first (4.51%) was registered in January 2014 and the second (2.93%), in December 2013. Considering this figure, the cumulative index in the year reached a positive result (2.25%) for the first time in 2015. the highest since December 2014 (6.78%). The prices were 5.75% higher than in October 2014.

The products that stood out in terms of influence were those that stood out in terms of contribution. They were: 'ethyl alcohol (anhydrous or hydrated)', 'diesel fuel and other fuel oils', 'motor gasoline' and 'naphtha'. Except for the last one, the other prices increased and contributed with 2.23 p.p. (in 2.77%).

Other chemicals: the chemical industry registered the fifth consecutive positive change of prices (2.86%), which generated a cumulative index in the year of 15.78% (the highest rate in this kind of comparison along the entire time series of the IPP) and of 15.59% in the comparison with the same month of 2014.

The industry of basic and intermediate petrochemicals for plasticizers, resins and fibers was related to international values and to the naphtha prices. Naphtha fell considerably between December 2014 and March 2015. but it recovered the prices between April and September 2015 (though dropping in October). In addition to these groups, it should be mentioned the manufacturing of resins and elastomers, which tended to follow the international prices and were influenced by energy costs, by the acquisition of raw materials and by the depreciation of real against the American currency (59% in the last 12 months).

Motor vehicles: the price change reported between September and October was 0.23%, below that of September (1.14%), the second highest in the year (January, 1.33%). Considering the October´s figure, the cumulative index in the year hit 5.94%, a higher rate than that reported in October last year (5.16%). The result in relation to October 2014 (7.60%) was lower than that in September (8.00%).

This sector stood out as a result of the influence of the change in relation to October 2014. the fourth highest among the industrial activities (0.82 p.p.), as well as for being the third highest sector in terms of contribution to the index (10.76 p.p.).

Other transportation equipment: in October 2015. the prices of this sector negatively changed 0.49% over the previous month. As a result of the variation of the currency rate (R$/US$), the cumulative rate in the year changed 33.75%, against an exchange variation of 47%, and the cumulative rate in the last 12 months changed 39.82%, against an exchange variation of 59%.

Social Communication
25 November 2015