In the seasonally-adjusted series, the expansion registered in the national industrial output between December 2015 and January 2016 was followed by eight out of the 14 places surveyed, highlighted by the most intense advances recorded in Santa Catarina (3.7%) and Pará (3.3%). Considering these figures, the former place offset part of the decline of 4.6% reported in the previous month, and the latter grew, after dropping 1.5% in December. Bahia (2.6%), Rio Grande do Sul (2.5%), Ceará (2.4%), Paraná (2.2%), the Northeast Region (1.5%) and São Paulo (1.1%) also advanced above the national average (0.4%). Having retreated 2.1%, Pernambuco, Amazonas and Espírito Santo reported the most intense declines in January. The first place posted the second consecutive negative figure and registered a cumulative loss of 17.4%; the second recorded the eighth consecutive month of drop, having declined 23.1% in this period; and the last place posted a loss of 20.1% since October last year. Rio de Janeiro (-1.5%), Goiás (-1.0%) and Minas Gerais (-1.0%) were the other places that registered negative indexes in January 2016. The complete publication of the survey can be accessed here.

Short-term Indicators of Industry
Regional Results
January 2016

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria
* Seasonally-adjusted series

Still concerning the seasonally-adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the overall industry dropped 0.9% in the quarter ending in January 2016 over the previous month and maintained the downward trend started in October 2014. In regional terms, still in relation to the marginal movement of this index, nine places recorded negative rates, highlighted by the sharpest declines reported in Pernambuco (-5.2%), Espírito Santo (-5.2%), Amazonas (-4.2%), Minas Gerais (-2.0%), Goiás (-1.4%) and São Paulo (-1.3%). On the other hand, Rio Grande do Sul (1.7%), Pará (1.2%) and Bahia (1.2%) posted the main advances in January 2016.

In the comparison with the same month of the previous year, the industrial sector reduced 13.8% in January 2016, showing negative figures in 12 out of the 15 places surveyed. It is worth mentioning that January 2016 (20 days) had one business day less than the same month in the previous year (21). In January, the most intense retreats were registered in Amazonas (-30.9%), Pernambuco (-29.4%) and Espírito Santo (-26.3%), pressed, at a large extent, by the reduced manufacture in the sectors of computer equipment, electronic and optical products, beverages, other transportation equipment (motorcycles and their pieces), in Amazonas; of food products, in Pernambuco; and of mining and quarrying industries, in Espírito Santo. Minas Gerais (-18.3%), São Paulo (-16.1%) and Rio de Janeiro (-14.1%) also recorded more negative figures than the national average (-13.8%), whereas Paraná (-13.6%), Goiás (-13.4%), Santa Catarina (-11.2%), Ceará (-9.7%), Rio Grande do Sul (-5.7%) and the Northeast Region (-3.2%) were the other places that posted negative rates in January. Conversely, Pará (10.5%), Bahia (10.3%) and Mato Grosso (9.3%) registered advances in January, leveraged, at a great extent, by the positive behavior coming from the mining and quarrying industries (crude iron ores), in the first place; coke, petroleum products and biofuels (diesel fuel and fuel oil), in the second; and food products (fresh and cooled beef), in the last place.

The signs of decreasing output pace were also evident when comparing the index of the last quarter a year ago with the first month of 2016, both of them compared against the same periods in the previous year, in which eight out of the 15 places surveyed lost dynamism, following the national index (from -11.9% to -13.8%). In this same comparison, Pernambuco (from -7.6% to -29.4%), Espírito Santo (from -14.4% to -26.3%), Minas Gerais (from -9.9% to -18.3%), Amazonas (from -23.1% to -30.9%) and Goiás (from -6.7% to -13.4%) registered the highest losses, whereas Bahia (from -9.0% to 10.3%), Pará (from 1.0% to 10.5%) and Rio Grande do Sul (from -14.3% to -5.7%) recorded the major gains between the two periods.

As the overall industry declined 9.0% in January 2016, the annualized rate – cumulative indicator in the last 12 months – posted the most intense drop since November 2009 (-9.4%) and kept the downward trend started in March 2014 (2.1%). In regional terms, 12 out of the 15 places surveyed recorded negative rates in January 2016 and ten showed lower dynamism against the index of last December. The main reductions in the pace between December 2015 and January 2016 were registered in Espírito Santo (from 4.3% to 0.6%), Pernambuco (from -4.3% to -7.6%), Amazonas (from -16.8% to -18.4%), Minas Gerais (from -7.8% to -9.0%) and Rio de Janeiro (from -6.8% to -7.9%), while Bahia (from -6.9% to -5.2%) recorded the major gain between the two periods.

Social Communication
9 March 2016