In March 2017, the national output of industry recorded a decrease of 1.8% versus the February rate (seasonally adjusted series), having remained at a predominantly negative level since the beginning of the year, after a decrease of 0.4% in January and no change (0.0%) in February.

In comparison with figures of March 2016 (series without seasonal adjustment) the industry overall recorded expansion of 1.1% in March 2017, after a decrease of 0.8% in February and an increase of 1.4% last January, interrupting a series of 34 months with negative results.

As a consequence, industry had a cumulative increase of 0.6% in the first three months of 2017. With the decline of 3.8% in March 2017, the annualized rate (cumulative indicator of the last 12 months) has remained on a downward trend since June 2016 (-9.7%).

The complete publication of the Monthly Survey of Industry (PIM-PF) can be accessed here.

Indicators of Industrial Output by Major Economic Categories 
Brazil - March 2017

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria
*Seasonally-adjusted series

15 out of the 24 subsectors surveyed recorded decreases in March

The decrease of industrial activity by 1.8% from February to March had a predominance of negative results, encompassing all the four economic categories and 15 of the 24 subsectors surveyed.

Among the sectors, the main negative contributions were those of motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-7.5%), pharmaceuticals (-23.8%) and coke, petroleum derivatives and biofuels (-3.3%). Other important negative contributions to the industry overall came from mining and quarrying industry (-1.1%), machinery and equipment (-4.9%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (-6.4%), furniture (-11.0%), manufacture of wearing apparel and accessories (-4.7%) and metal products (-3.2%). Among the nine subsectors which had bigger output in the month, food products (1.3%) accounted for the main contributions to the overall average, having recovered part of the decrease (2.4%) of February 2017.

Among the major economic categories, also in comparison with the immediately previous month, durable consumer goods, having recorded a decrease of 8.5%, faced the sharpest decline in March 2017 and eliminated the advance of 8.0% recorded in February. This was the most significant decrease since June 2015 (-13.2%).

The producers of intermediate goods (-2.5%), capital goods (-2.5%) and semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (-1.8%) also had negative rates in the month. The first one interrupted a sequence of four months with increase and had a cumulative gain of 3.4%; the second faced decrease again after having increased 5.9% in February; and the third one faced decline in output for the second consecutive month, with cumulative loss of 3.2% in the period.

Quarterly moving average decreases 0.7%

Also in the seasonally adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average for the industry overall pointed to a decrease of 0.7% in the quarter ended March 2017, versus the level of the previous month, and interruption of a series of positive rates initiated in December 2016. 

Considering the major economic categories, also in relation to the marginal movement, durable consumer goods (-2.3%) recorded the biggest decrease in the month and interrupted the upward trend which started in October last year. The producers of intermediate goods (-0.5%), capital goods (-0.4%) and semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (-0.2%) also recorded negative rates in March 2017.

Industrial output increased 1.1% in relation to March 2016 figure

In comparison with March 2016, industry recorded increase of 1.1% in March 2017, with positive results in three of the four biggest economic categories; 16 of the 26 subsectors; 48 of the 79 grups and 53.8% of the 805 products surveyed.

Among the activities, motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (10.9%) and mining and quarrying industry (7.0%) accounted for the main positive contributions to the average of industry. Other relevant positive contributions came from computer equipment, electronic and optical products (16.9%), basic metals (3.6%), rubber and plastic products (5.2%), beverages (5.3%), leather articles, traveling items and footwear (8.4%), manufacture of wearing apparel and accessories (7.1%), pulp, paper and paper products (3.9%), other chemicals (2.3%) and textiles (7.0%).

On the other hand, also in comparison with March 2016, among the nine activities which recorded decrease of output, the main contributions to the industry overall were those of pharmaceuticals (-28.8%) and coke, petroleum derivatives and biofuels (-7.0%). It is also worth mentioning the negative results of food products (-2.1%), other transportation equipment (-8.3%) and printing and reproduction of recorded media (-14.4%).

Also versus the same month a year ago, durable consumer goods (8.5%) and capital goods (4.5%) recorded, in March 2017, the most significant increases among the major economic categories. The segment of intermediate goods (0.5%) also had a positive result in the month, but was below the national average (1.1%). On the other hand, semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods, with a decrease of 0.5%, recorded the only negative rate.

The segment of durable consumer goods increased 8.5% in the monthly index of March 2017, the fifth positive result in a row in this type of comparison, but still below the figure of the previous month (20.1%). In the month, the sector was mainly influenced by the advances in the production of “brown goods” (25.1%). It is also worth mentioning the positive results that came from “white goods” (3.3%), motorcycles (2.5%) and other household articles (2.2%). On the other hand, furniture, with decrease of 9.0%, accounted for the most significant negative impact.

The output of capital goods increased 4.5% in March 2017, and recorded the fifth positive rate in a row in comparison with the same month a year ago. To thr formation of the monthly index, the segment was influenced, to a great extent, by the increase observed in the group of capital goods for agriculture (36.2%). The other positive results were those of capital goods for mixed use (8.1%), for construction (10.0%) and for transportation equipment (0.5%). The negative impacts were those of capital goods for electricity (-9.6%) and for industrial use (-10.3%).

The output of capital goods increased 0.5% in March 2017, after recording decrease of 2.5% in February. This result was mainly a consequence of the advance of products related to mining and quarrying industry (7.0%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (11.2%), basic metals (3.6%), rubber and plastic products (5.7%), other chemicals (2.6%), pulp, paper and paper products (4.6%), textiles (6.9%), metal products (0.5%) and non-metallic mineral products (0.1%), whereas negative contributions were recorded by coke, petroleum derivatives and biofuels (-7.8%), food products (-7.2%) and machinery and equipment (-17.6%). Also regarding this economic category, it is worth mentioning the results recorded by typical inputs for civil construction (-3.6%), which recorded the thirtieth-seventh decrease in a row in this type of comparison; and packaging (3.0%), which increased again after the a decline of 1.9% last February.

The producers of semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods, having decreased 0.5% in March 2017, recorded the second negative result in a row. The performance this month resulted, to a great extent, from the decrease observed in the group of non durable (-14.1%), affected, mainly, by the smaller production of medicines. It also worth mentioning the negative result of fuels (-4.7%), influenced by the reduced production of ethyl alcohol. On the other hand, food products and beverages for domestic consumption (4.3%) and semi-durable goods (8.8%) recorded increase of output in the month.

In the first semester of 2017, industry increased 0.6%

In the cumulative index for the period January-March 2017, versus the same period in the previous year, industry recorded a decrease of 0.6%, with positive results in two of the four biggest economic categories; 15 of the 26 subsectors; 47 of the 79 groups and 53.0% of the 805 products surveyed.

Among the activities, mining and quarrying industry (8.2%) and motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (11.5%), accounted for the most significant contributions to the formation of the average of industry. Other relevant positive contributions to the national total came from computer equipment, computer equipment, electronic and optical products (18.3%), manufacture of wearing apparel and accessories (8.0%), basic metals (1.9%), rubber and plastic products (2.7%), textiles (6.2%) and machinery and equipment (2.0%).

On the other hand, among the 11 activities which recorded decrease of output, the main contribution to the industry overall came from coke, petroleum derivatives and biofuels (-9.6%). It is also worth mentioning the negative results of pharmaceuticals (-15.4%), food products (-2.1%), other transportation equipment (-9.4%), printing and reproduction of recorded media (-13.7%), electrical machinery and apparatuses (-4.4%) and non-metallic mineral products (-2.2%).

Considering the major economic categories, the profile of results for the first three months of 2017 showed bigger dynamism for durable consumer goods (10.5%) and capital goods (4.4%), due, to a great extent, to the manufacure of cars (17.1%) and household appliances (16.6%) in the former; and of capital goods for agriculture (29.8%) and for construction (26.4%), in the latter. It is worth mentioning, in the two major groups, the influence of a low basis for comparison, once in the first quarter of 2016 these segments had recorded decreases of 27.3% and 27.7%, respectively. On the other hand, the producers of semi-durable and no-durable consumer goods (-0.6%) and of intermediate goods (-0.4%) recorded negative rates in the cumulative index in the first semester of 2017.

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May 3, 2017