In March 2026, national industrial output showed a positive change of 0.1% compared to February, the third consecutive positive rate, accumulating an expansion of 3.1% in this period. In relation to March last year, the industry increased production by 4.3%, after decreasing 0.7% in February and advancing 0.2% in January 2026, when it interrupted three consecutive months of decline in production: December (-0.1%), November (-1.4%) and October 2025 (-0.4%). The cumulative index in the year stayed at 1.3% compared to the first quarter of last year. In the last 12 months, there was an increase of 0.4%. The quarterly moving average in March was 1.0%.

In the positive change of 0.1% in industrial activity from February to March 2026, the four broad economic categories and eight out of 25 industrial sectors surveyed showed an increase in production. It is worth highlighting that, with these results, industrial production was 3.3% above the pre-pandemic level (February 2020), but it is still 13.9% below the record level reached in May 2011.

Among the activities, the most important positive influences were registered by coke, petroleum products and biofuels (2.2%) and chemicals (4.0%), with the first one marking the fourth consecutive month of growth and accumulating expansion of 11.5% in this period; and the second one offsetting the 1.5% decline seen in February.

Other relevant positive contributions to the industry's total came from motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (1.1%), basic metals (1.2%) and machinery and equipment (1.0%).

On the other hand, among 16 activities that showed a decline in production, beverages (-2.9%) and electrical machines, appliances and materials (-3.9%) exerted the main influences on the industry average, with the first one interrupting three consecutive months of growth in production, a period in which it accumulated growth of 8.5%; and the second one stepping up the magnitude of the drop recorded in February 2026 (-2.3%). It is also worth highlighting the negative impacts reported by the sectors of furniture (-6.0%), manufacture of wearing apparel and accessories (-4.1%), food products (-0.5%), maintenance, repair and installation of machinery and equipment (-3.9%), pulp, paper and paper products (-1.3%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (-2.3%), wood products (-4.4%) and rubber and plastic products (-1.1%).

Among the broad economic categories, in comparison with the immediately previous month, durable consumer goods (1.7%) recorded the highest expansion in March 2026 and marked the third consecutive positive rate, a period in which it accumulated growth of 9.9%. The sectors producing capital goods (0.6%), intermediate goods (0.5%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (0.4%) also showed positive results this month, with all of them pointing to the third consecutive month of increase in production, a period in which they accumulated gains of 6.4%, 4.1% and 2.4%, respectively.

Moving average was 1.0% in the quarter ended in March

The evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the overall industry showed growth of 1.0% in the quarter ending in March 2026 compared to the previous month's level and stepped up the pace in comparison with the results of the first two months of the year: February (0.3%) and January (0.0%) 2026.

Among the broad economic categories, still in relation to the marginal movement of this index, durable consumer goods (3.1%) and capital goods (2.1%) recorded the most pronounced positive rates in March 2026, with the first one marking the second consecutive positive result and accumulating a gain of 4.0% in this period; and the second one interrupting the predominantly downward trajectory that began in March 2025. The sectors producing intermediate goods (1.3%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (0.8%) also showed expansion this month, with the first one stepping up the growth recorded in the previous month (0.5%), when it interrupted four consecutive months of decline, a period in which it accumulated a loss of 1.9%; and the second one remaining on the upward trajectory that began in July 2025.

Industry grows 4.3% over March 2025

In the comparison with the same month of the previous year, the industrial sector recorded an expansion of 4.3% in March 2026, with positive results in four out of four broad economic categories, 19 out of 25 sectors, 46 out of 80 groups and 55.6% of the 789 products surveyed. It is worth mentioning that March 2026 (22 days) had 3 more business days than the same month in the previous year (19).

Among the activities, the main positive influences on the total industry were registered by motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (18.7%), food products (5.7%), mining and quarrying industries (4.7%) and coke, petroleum products and biofuels (4.2%), driven, to a large extent, by the greater production of automobiles, vehicles for transporting goods, car pieces and tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, in the first one; frozen, fresh or chilled poultry and giblets, fresh or chilled beef, animal feed, frozen, fresh or chilled pork meat, ready-to-eat corn or cornflake-based food,  pork sausages and other pork meat preparations, refined soybean oil, concentrated fruit juices, cookies and crackers, wheat flour and yogurt, in the second one; crude petroleum oil and natural gas, in the third one; and diesel fuel, ethyl alcohol and aviation kerosene, in the fourth one. Other important positive contributions were made by the sectors of computer equipment, electronic and optical products (9.3%), other transportation equipment (11.3%), rubber and plastic products (3.9%), miscellaneous products (13.5%), chemicals (1.7%), furniture (9.9%) and pharmochemicals and pharmaceuticals (4.2%).

On the other hand, still in comparison with March 2025, among the six activities that showed a reduction in production, pulp, paper and paper products (-4.5%) exerted the greatest influence on the formation of the industry average, mainly pressured by the lower production of chemical wood pulps (pulp).

Still in comparison with the same month of the previous year, durable consumer goods (18.7%) recorded, in March 2026, a double-digit expansion, the most accentuated among the broad economic categories. The sectors producing capital goods (6.5%), semi and non-durable consumer goods (4.6%) and intermediate goods (2.9%) also showed positive rates this month, with the first two advancing above the industry average (4.3%) and the last one registering the most moderate growth.

The sector producing durable consumer goods, by showing expansion of 18.7% in March 2026 compared to the same month of the previous year, interrupted four consecutive months of decline and marked the highest positive rate since November 2024 (19.2%). This month, the sector was driven, to a large extent, by the increase in car manufacturing (38.9%). It is also required to highlight the advances recorded by brown goods (15.8%) and white goods (12.7%), motorcycles (34.7%) and the furniture group (11.4%). On the other hand, the main negative impact was recorded by the group of other household appliances (-22.3%).

The production of capital goods showed an increase of 6.5% in the same comparison, thus interrupting nine consecutive months of negative rates. In the formation of this month's index, the segment was mainly influenced by the advances observed in the groups of capital goods for transportation equipment (10.0%) and for industrial purposes (4.6%), driven, to a great extent, by the greater production of vehicles for the transportation of goods, aircrafts and tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, in the first one; and serial (4.2%) and non-serial (8.6%) capital goods in the second one. The other positive results were recorded by the groups of capital goods for construction (8.0%) and for electricity (3.3%). However, the subsectors of capital goods for agriculture (-8.5%) and for mixed use (-1.7%) recorded negative impacts on the monthly index for March 2026.

Still compared to the same month in the previous year, the segment of semi and non-durable consumer goods recorded growth of 4.6% in March 2026, after falling 0.5% in February, when it interrupted two consecutive months of positive rates: January 2026 (1.0%) and December 2025 (4.8%). The positive performance this month was explained, to a great extent, by the increase observed in the group of food and beverages for domestic consumption (5.5%), driven mainly by the greater production of frozen, fresh or chilled poultry and giblets, fresh or chilled beef, wines, ready-to-eat corn or cornflake-based food, sausage products or salami and other pork meat preparations, refined soybean oil, concentrated fruit juices, cookies and crackers, and yogurt. It is also worth highlighting the positive results recorded by the groups of non-durables (4.1%), semi-durables (4.3%) and fuels (3.8%). On the other hand, the group of basic food and beverages for domestic consumption (-34.2%) recorded the only negative rate in March 2026, pressured by the lower production of fillets and other fresh, chilled or frozen fish meat and frozen fish.

Having advanced 2.9% in March 2026 compared to the same period of the previous year, the sector producing intermediate goods marked the third consecutive positive rate and the highest one since September 2025 (3.4%). This month's result was mainly explained by advances in products associated with the activities of mining and quarrying industries (4.7%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (4.4%), food products (5.0%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (6.9%), rubber and plastic products (3.0%), fabricated metal products (3.0%), non-metallic mineral products (1.7%), chemicals (0.9%) and textiles (3.5%), while negative pressures were recorded by pulp, paper and paper products (-6.2%), basic metals (-0.4%) and machinery and equipment (-0.5%). Still in this economic category, it is also worth mentioning the negative results reported by the groups of typical inputs for civil construction (-0.7%) and packaging (-0.1%).

First quarter grows 1.3% compared to the same period in 2025

The cumulative index in the year, compared to the same period of the previous year, showed an increase of 1.3%, with positive results in three out of four broad economic categories, ten out of 25 sectors, 26 out of 80 groups and 44.0% of the 789 products surveyed. Among the activities, the main positive influences were registered by mining and quarrying industries (8.7%), food products (2.6%), pharmochemicals and pharmaceuticals (14.3%) and coke, petroleum products and biofuels (2.1%), driven, to a large extent, by the greater production of the items crude petroleum oil, iron ores and natural gas, in the first one; concentrated orange juices, frozen poultry and giblets, frozen, fresh or chilled pork meat, fresh or chilled beef, refined soybean oil, ice cream and popsicles, animal feed and concentrated fruit juices, in the second one; medicines, in the third one; and ethyl alcohol, diesel fuel, naphtha and fuel oils, in the fourth one. It is also worth highlighting the positive contributions made by the sectors of motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (2.2%) and beverages (3.3%).

However, still in the comparison with January-March 2025, among the 15 activities that showed a reduction in production, that of machinery and equipment (-9.4%) exerted the greatest impact on the formation of the industry average, pressured, to a large extent, by the lower production of the items wall-mounted, window-mounted or transportable air-conditioning devices (including those of the “split system” type), machines or devices for the agricultural sector, centrifugal pumps, motor graders, reducing pressure security expansion valves, forklift trucks, machining centers for metal manufacturing, fans and hoods for industrial use, metal silos for cereals and compressors used in refrigeration equipment. Other important negative impacts were recorded by the sectors of chemicals (-2.5%), fabricated metal products (-4.0%), manufacture of wearing apparel and accessories (-6.5%), leather articles, travel articles and footwear (-6.6%) and pulp, paper and paper products (-2.5%).

Among the broad economic categories, the profile of results for the first three months of 2026 showed greater dynamism for the segments of semi and non-durable consumer goods (1.8%), intermediate goods (1.7%) and durable consumer goods (1.6%), driven mainly by the expansion in the production of medicines and ethyl alcohol, in the first one; crude petroleum oils, iron ores and natural gas, in the second one; and cars (11.1%), in third one. However, the sector producing capital goods (-6.3%) recorded the only negative rate in the cumulative indicator in the first quarter of the year, pressured, to a large extent, by the lower production of capital goods for industrial use (-5.3%), for mixed use (-14.2%), for agriculture (-13.9%) and for transportation equipment (-2.1%).

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