The December estimate for the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2025 was 346.1 million tonnes, 18.2% higher (or 53.4 million tonnes more) than that obtained in 2024 (292.7 million tonnes), with an increase of 0.1% (or 196.1 thousand tonnes more) compared to the November estimate.

The area to be harvested was 81.6 million hectares, an increase of 3.2% (or 2.5 million hectares) compared to 2024. Compared to the November estimate, the area to be harvested grew by 0.1% (or 58,531 hectares).

Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products in this group, which, together, represented 92.7% of the production estimate and accounted for 87.9% of the area to be harvested. For soybeans, the production estimate was 166.1 million tonnes, a new record in the time series. As for corn, the estimate was also a record: 141.7 million tonnes (25.7 million tonnes of corn in the 1st harvest and 116.0 million tonnes of corn in the 2nd harvest). Another record was broken in the production of upland cottonseed, which reached 9.9 million tonnes.

The production of paddy rice was estimated at 12.7 million tonnes, that of wheat, at 7.8 million tonnes, and that of sorghum was 5.4 million tonnes.

Regarding production, compared to 2024, there were increases of 11.4% for upland cottonseed; 19.4% for paddy rice; 14.6% for soybeans; 23.6% for corn (growth of 12.3% for corn - 1st crop and 26.4% for corn - 2nd crop); 35.5% for sorghum; 3.7% for wheat; and for beans, there was a decrease of 2.7%.

Regarding the area to be harvested, in relation to the previous year, there were increases of 5.7% for upland cottonseed; 11.1% for paddy rice; 3.7% in soybeans; 4.3% in corn (5.8% decline in corn - 1st crop and 7.1% growth in corn 2nd crop); and 15.6% in sorghum. There were reductions of 7.2% in the area for beans and 18.2% in the area for wheat.

Central-West leads production in 2025, with 178.7 million tonnes

Among the Major Regions, the volume of production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds showed the following distribution: Central-West, 178.7 million tonnes (51.6%); South, 86.3 million tonnes (24.9%); Southeast, 31.1 million tonnes (9.0%), Northeast, 27.7 million tonnes (8.0%) and North, 22.3 million tonnes (6.5%). The estimated production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds showed positive annual change for all Geographic Regions: Central-West (23.6%), South (10.2%), Southeast (20.5%), Northeast (7.6%) and North (22.7%). As for the monthly change, the North Region (0.7%) and the Southeast (0.8%) showed growth. The Central-West Region showed stability (0.0%), while the South (-0.1%) and the Northeast (-0.1%) showed declines.

Compared to November, there were increases in production estimates for oranges (13.0% or 1,805,450 t), potatoes -3rd crop (7.9% or 80,651 t), grapes (5.4% or 113,492 t), barley (4.2% or 25,478 t), beans - 3rd crop (1.8% or 13,889 t), coffea canephora (1.5% or 18,058 t), sugar cane (0.9% or 5,936,175 t), rice (0.5% or 66,246 t), corn - 2nd crop (0.1% or 141,052 t), coffea arabica (0.1% or 2,045 t), sorghum (0.1% or 3,807 t), potatoes - 2nd crop (0.1% or 953 t), soybeans (0.1% or 96,293 t), as well as declines in cashew nuts (8.0% or -10,924 t), cassava (-3.7% or -755,794 t), wheat (-1.3% or -105,072 t), oat (-1.0% or -15 310 t), potatoes - 1st crop (-0.4% or -7 300 t), beans - 1st crop (-0.3% or -2 880 t), peanuts  - 1st crop (-0.3% or -4 128 t), corn - 1st crop (-0.1% or -24 349 t), beans - 2nd crop (-0.1% or -1 039 t) and upland cottonseed (-0.0% or -1 263 t).

In the distribution of production across Federation Units, Mato Grosso led as the largest national grain producer, with a share of 32.0%, followed by Paraná (13.5%), Goiás (11.3%), Rio Grande do Sul (9.3%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.1%) and Minas Gerais (5.5%), which, together, represented 79.7% of the total.

The main positive absolute changes in production estimates, in relation to the previous month, occurred in São Paulo (253,340 t), Pará (92,488 t), Goiás (74,051 t), Tocantins (52,206 t), Paraná (49,400 t), Maranhão (20,613 t), Amazonas (4,453 t) and Rondônia (71 t). The negative changes occurred in Rio Grande do Sul (-168,514 t), Mato Grosso do Sul (-126,220 t), Ceará (-33,417 t), Pernambuco (-14,874 t), Minas Gerais (-4,830 t), Roraima (-2,315 t), Rio de Janeiro (-157 t), Acre (-90 t), Rio Grande do Norte (-85 t) and Espírito Santo (-41 t). 

Brazilian grain harvest expected to add up to 339.8 million tonnes in 2026

In December 2025, the IBGE carried out the third area and production forecast for the 2026 harvest. The Brazilian harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds, in 2026, should add up to 339.8 million tonnes, a decline of 1.8% compared to 2025 or 6.3 million tonnes, with the 2025 harvest representing a record in the IBGE time series. In relation to the second forecast, there was a growth of 4.2 million tonnes, an increase of 1.2%. For the 2026 harvest, the IBGE includes canola and sesame, products that have been gaining importance in the cereal, legume and oilseed harvest in recent years, although their cultivation is still limited to a few Federation Units.

The decline in production in relation to the 2025 harvest is mainly due to the lower estimate for corn (-6.0% or -8.5 million tonnes), with growth of 11.5% relative to the 1st crop or 3.0 million tonnes and a decline of 9.9% in relation to the 2nd crop or -11.4 million tonnes), for sorghum (-13.0% or -700.2 thousand tonnes), for rice (-8.0% or -1.0 million tonnes), for upland cottonseed (-10.5% or -632.7 thousand tonnes) and for wheat (-1.6% or -128.4 thousand tonnes). For soybeans, a growth of 2.5% or 4.2 million tonnes was estimated and for beans - 1st crop (3.1% or 30.1 thousand tonnes).

For the Federation Units, the production estimate in 2026 showed growth in Paraná (1.5%), Rio Grande do Sul (25.2%), Piauí (16.9%)) and Rondônia (0.5%), and declines in Mato Grosso (-7.9%), Goiás (-8.0%), Mato Grosso do Sul (-6.8%), Minas Gerais (-1.7%), Bahia (-4.7%), São Paulo (-4.8%), Tocantins (-2.9%), Maranhão (-0.7%), Pará (-8.6%), Santa Catarina (-1.6%) and Sergipe (-7.4%).

The estimated area to be harvested in the 2026 harvest is 82.7 million hectares, a growth of 1.4% or 1.2 million hectares. Regarding the area to be harvested for the products, there were positive changes: corn (2.3% or 522.8 thousand hectares, 9.2% or 405.8 thousand hectares for corn - 1st crop and 0.7% or 117.0 thousand hectares for corn - 2nd crop; soybeans (0.4% or 208.2 thousand hectares) and beans - 1st crop (0.9% or 10.7 thousand hectares). The following showed negative changes: upland cottonseed (-5.7% or -122.5 thousand hectares) and rice (-5.6% or -97.9 thousand hectares).

In relation to the Federation Units, for the 2026 harvest, the estimated area to be harvested showed growth in Mato Grosso (3.3%), Rio Grande do Sul (1.4%), Tocantins (1.5%), Mato Grosso do Sul (0.8%), Piauí (9.6%), Minas Gerais (1.3%), Ceará (1.1%), São Paulo (0.8%), Pará (5.2%) and Rondônia (2.6%). There were drops: Paraná (-0.4%), Goiás (-0.7%), Bahia (-3.5%), Maranhão (-0.0%) and Santa Catarina (-0.4%).

UPLAND COTTONSEED – The estimate for the production of upland cottonseed was 8.8 million tonnes, an increase of 1.3% in relation to the second forecast. In relation to 2025, the drop in estimates reaches 10.5%, with declines of 5.7% in the planted area and 5.1% in the productivity. High stocks from recent harvests put pressure on prices, causing producers to reevaluate production areas and look for alternatives for the second harvest, such as corn. Mato Grosso, the largest national producer, with nearly 72.7% of the national total, in 2026, estimated a production of 6.4 million tonnes, maintaining the previous month's estimates. In Bahia, the second largest cotton producer, it should be responsible for 16.7% of the national harvest, with the estimate reaching 1.5 million tonnes, a drop of 17.5% compared to 2025. Minas Gerais increased its production estimates by 53.4%, when compared to the estimate in the second forecast, while São Paulo increased its estimates by 2.5% in relation to the second forecast. In Mato Grosso do Sul, an increase of 9.7% in production was also observed, providing a growth of 1.0% compared to 2025.

PADDY RICE – The estimate for rice production was 11.6 million tonnes, an increase of 0.6% in relation to the second forecast and a decline of 8.0% in relation to the volume produced in 2025. Compared to the previous year, the area to be planted declined by 5.6%, as did the average yield, which fell by 2.6%. This mixed movement reflected methodological adjustments, advances in sowing, moderately favorable water conditions in the main producing regions and a review of productivity. The prices and profitability of the crop are at low levels for the producers, which should not encourage an increase in area and investment in crops. 

In Rio Grande do Sul, the estimated production was 8.1 million tonnes, growth of 2.4% in relation to the second forecast and a decline of 7.6% in relation to the volume produced in 2025. The state should be responsible for nearly 69.6% of the national production. In Santa Catarina, the second largest national producer, with an estimated 1.2 million tonnes, there were no changes in expectations between November and December. In the Central-West Region, the forecast was for a reduction in the planted area by 16.0%, consequently, there will be a decline in production of 21.2%. Some areas may be allocated to crops with greater potential for profitability and liquidity, such as soybeans. In Mato Grosso, the largest regional producer, a 25.9% drop in production was expected in relation to 2025. In the North Region, there was also a forecast of a lower production in relation to 2025, of 7.0%, with production expected to reach 1.1 million tonnes, with the main contribution coming from Tocantins, which estimated a production of 688.3 thousand tonnes for 2026, a decline of 5.5% in relation to the volume harvested in 2025.

COFFEE (beans)The Brazilian production, considering the two species, arabica and canephora, was estimated at 3.7 million tonnes, or 61.8 million 60-kg sacks, increases of 2.4% in relation to the previous month and of 7.3% in relation to the volume produced in 2025.

For coffea arabica, the estimated production was 2.5 million tonnes or 41.6 million 60-kg sacks, an increase of 0.3% compared to the previous month. For the 2026 harvest, a positive biennial bearing is expected, with natural growth in production due to the physiological characteristics of the species. The 2026 coffee harvest begins with great expectations, since the climate problems in the main producing Federation Units, until now, have proven to be punctual, unlike in 2025.

The largest producers of coffea arabica, in 2026, should be: Minas Gerais, with 1.7 million tonnes or 29.5 million 60-kg sacks, an increase of 0.6% compared to the previous month and of 15.2% compared to 2025, accounting for 70.8% of the national total of this species; São Paulo, with 320.0 thousand tonnes or 5.3 million 60-kg sacks, a decline of 0.3% in relation to the previous month and growth of 12.5% ​​in relation to the volume produced in 2025, with a share of 12.8%; Espírito Santo, with 224.5 thousand tonnes or 3.7 million 60-kg sacks, a monthly decline of 0.3% and growth of 13.2% in relation to 2025, with a 9.0% share in national production and Bahia, with 94.8 thousand tonnes or 1.6 million 60- kg sacks, growth of 6.8% in annual terms, with a 3.8% share in the national total.

For coffea canephora, the production estimate was 1.2 million tonnes or 20.1 million 60-kg sacks, an increase of 7.0% compared to the previous month and a decrease of 4.1% compared to the volume produced in 2025. The estimated production for coffea canephora in 2025 was a record in the IBGE time series, therefore, a relatively high comparative basis. Although, to date, the climate is helping crops, producers are still concerned about the behavior of rainfall in the first four months of 2026.

In December, there was a 9.8% increase in the production estimate for Espírito Santo, reaching 841.3 thousand tonnes or 14.0 million 60-kg sacks, and a decline of 3.5% in relation to the volume produced in 2025. Espírito Santo production should represent 69.7% of the national total to be harvested in 2026. In Bahia, the production estimate was 133.1 thousand tonnes or 2.2 million 60-kg sacks, a decline of 23.0% in annual terms, representing 11.0% of the national total, as well as Rondônia, with a production estimate of 180.2 thousand tonnes or 3.0 million 60-kg sacks, representing 13.2% of the national total. The estimated production in Minas Gerais was 29.5 thousand tonnes or 492.5 thousand sacks of 60 kg, an increase of 12.9% in relation to the previous month and of 0.5% in relation to the volume harvested in 2025, while that of Acre was 7.0 thousand tonnes, or 116.2 thousand sacks of 60 kg, an increase of 7.0% in relation to the previous month and of 5.1% in relation to the volume harvested in 2025.

BEANS (in grain) The third forecast for bean production for 2026, considering the three harvests, is 3.0 million tonnes, growth of 0.9% in relation to the crop harvested in 2025. The first harvest should produce 985.5 thousand tonnes; the second harvest, 1.3 million tonnes and the third harvest, 764.5 thousand tonnes.

Paraná was the largest Brazilian producer of beans in the first harvest, with an estimated 191.1 thousand tonnes, declines of 4.4% in relation to the previous month (second forecast) and of 36.7% in relation to the volume harvested in that same harvest in 2025. Production from Paraná should represent 19.4% of the total to be harvested in this first harvest. Minas Gerais was the second producer, with 172.4 thousand tonnes, growth of 9.6% in the monthly comparison and of 8.7% in the annual comparison, and it is expected to participate with 17.5% of the total harvest. Other important producers were: Bahia, with 116.9 thousand tonnes, an increase of 35.3% compared to 2025; Goiás, with 94.6 thousand tonnes, an increase of 2.8%; Ceará, with 79.9 thousand tonnes, increases of 9.9% in relation to the previous month and of 44.4% in annual terms; Piauí, with 79.5 thousand tonnes, monthly growth of 151.2% and annual growth of 207.8%; Santa Catarina, with 60.6 thousand tonnes, a decline of 22.2% in relation to the volume produced in 2025; and Rio Grande do Sul, with 48.8 thousand tonnes, declines of 2.1% monthly and 13.1% annually.

The production estimate for the second harvest increased by 0.2% in relation to the second forecast (November) and 0.5% in relation to the volume produced in the same harvest in 2025. The largest Brazilian producer of beans from this harvest was Paraná, with 553.5 thousand tonnes, an increase of 3.0% in relation to the second forecast (November) and of 2.7% in relation to the volume harvested in this same harvest in 2025, and it is expected to participate with 42.8% of the total harvest, followed by Mato Grosso, with 172.9 thousand tonnes, an increase of 4.1% in relation to the volume harvested in 2025; Minas Gerais, with 164.5 thousand tonnes, growth of 0.9% in relation to the second forecast and a reduction of 2.6% in relation to 2025; Bahia, with 85.8 thousand tonnes, a decline of 14.9% in relation to the volume harvested in 2025; and Tocantins, with 80.3 thousand tonnes, an increase of 0.6% compared to November and a decline of 7.5% compared to 2025.

For the third harvest, the estimated planting area reached 284.5 thousand hectares, an increase of 0.9% compared to the previous month (second forecast) and a decline of 0.5% compared to 2025. The production estimate declined 2.6% in the monthly comparison and 1.1% in the annual one. The largest Brazilian producers of beans, at this time, were: Goiás, with 256.3 thousand tonnes, a decline of 1.2% compared to the previous year; Minas Gerais, with 177.2 thousand tonnes, growth of 20.9% compared to the previous year; Mato Grosso, with 176.3 thousand tonnes, a decline of 4.3% compared to the previous year; and São Paulo, with 122.0 thousand tonnes, a decline of 14.1% in relation to the second forecast and of 20.7% in relation to the volume harvested in this harvest in 2025.

CORN (in grain) – The estimate for corn production for 2026 was 133.2 million tonnes, an increase of 0.9% in relation to the second forecast and a decline of 6.0% or less 8.5 million tonnes in relation to the crop harvested in 2025. The decline in the estimated corn production in 2026, compared to 2025, was due to the latter's high comparison base, as the climate benefited crops in most producing Federation Units during the second half of 2024 and first half of 2025, thus boosting productivity. For the year 2026, despite the start of the harvest without major weather problems, expectations regarding the behavior of the climate during the first half of the current year weigh heavily, which should define the volume of the main cereal growing season, the second harvest, known as the “dry harvest”, as it provides lower amounts of moisture for crops, in general.     

For the first harvest, a production of 28.7 million tonnes was estimated, an increase of 4.6% in relation to the second forecast (November) and of 11.5% in relation to the volume produced in that same harvest in 2025. For the 2026 harvest, an increase of 6.1% in the planted area was expected, as the demand for the cereal has been growing a lot in Brazil, due to its use for the production of ethanol and for the production of the animal protein complex, as well as for exports. To date, there was no news of rainfall restrictions in the main cereal-producing Federation Units, which also reinforces the possibility of an increase in corn production in the current summer harvest.

The biggest increases in production estimates in relation to the previous month (second forecast) were reported by Tocantins (7.8%), Maranhão (2.9%), Piauí (34.2%), Ceará (15.5%), Minas Gerais (12.2%), São Paulo (10.2%), Mato Grosso do Sul (4.1%), while the declines were greater in Rondônia (-1.4%), Espírito Santo (-8.1%) and Rio de Janeiro (-5.6%). Rio Grande do Sul, the largest national producer of corn - 1st crop with a 22.1% share, estimated a 0.1% increase in production compared to the previous month and an increase of 19.9% ​​compared to the volume produced in 2025, and it was expected to reach 6.3 million tonnes. In Minas Gerais, the second largest producer of corn - 1st crop (17.6% of the national share), the production estimate was 5.0 million tonnes, an increase of 12.2% in relation to the previous month and of 13.8% in relation to the volume harvested in the same period of 2025.

For corn - 2nd crop, the production estimate was 104.6 million tonnes, a decline of 0.1% in relation to November (second forecast) and of 9.9% in relation to 2025. Mato Grosso was the largest Brazilian corn producer in the second harvest, and it was expected to reach 49.6 million tonnes in the 2026 harvest and participate with 47.4% of the national total. This third estimate showed a decline of 9.1% in relation to what was produced in that same harvest in 2025, with a negative impact on the average yield (-11.1%), while the area to be harvested grew by 2.2%.

The second Brazilian producer of corn - 2nd crop was Paraná, which should reach 17.3 million tonnes, a decline of 2.0% in relation to November (second forecast), as well as in relation to the volume produced in this same harvest in 2025, and it was expected to participate with 16.5% of the total. Also relevant in the production of corn - 2nd crop were: Goiás, with 13.3 million tonnes, a share of 12.7%; Mato Grosso do Sul, with 10.3 million tonnes, a share of 9.8%; Minas Gerais, with 2.3 million tonnes; São Paulo, with 2.3 million tonnes; Tocantins, with 2.4 million tonnes, growth of 6.5% compared to the previous month (second forecast); Rondônia, with 2.3 million tonnes, growth of 0.2% compared to the previous month; Pará, with 1.3 million tonnes; Sergipe, with 981.5 thousand tonnes; Maranhão, with 904.7 thousand tonnes; and Bahia, with 714.0 thousand tonnes.

SOYBEAN (in grain) – The third production estimate for 2026 brought a monthly adjustment of 1.6% in the total volume to be harvested. Soybean production in 2026 should increase by 2.5% compared to the previous harvest, adding up to 170.3 million tonnes, which would characterize a new record in the national production of the legume. In 2025, the state of Rio Grande do Sul and some regions of Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul had part of their soybean harvest frustrated due to scarce and poorly distributed rainfall during the main growing season. The recovery of the average yield of these areas in 2026 should enhance the achievement of a new oilseed production record in Brazil. The total soybean production area should be close to 48.0 million hectares, which would represent an increase of 196.1 thousand hectares compared to the cultivated area in 2025. In this monthly survey, there were more significant production adjustments in the states of Piauí (11.9%), Mato Grosso do Sul (10.4%), Ceará (6.2%), São Paulo (5.0%), Maranhão (4.0%), Tocantins (3.9%) and Rio Grande do Sul (1.3%).

In Mato Grosso, the largest national producer, which had a historical record and accounted for more than a quarter of the national production in 2025, the production estimate for 2026 was 46.7 million tonnes, which represented a reduction of 6.8% in relation to the volume produced in the previous harvest. Paraná estimated the second largest national production, 22.1 million tonnes, representing a growth of 3.6% compared to the volume produced in 2025, which would be the largest harvest ever achieved in the state. In Rio Grande do Sul, the average yield was expected to recover by nearly 57.5% compared to the previous harvest, which faced severe water restrictions due to droughts at the beginning of 2025. Therefore, if the favorable meteorological conditions observed so far were maintained, the expectation was that the amount produced will exceed the volume harvested in 2025 by 55.4%, adding up to 21.2 million tonnes, thus surpassing the record of 20.4 million tonnes achieved in 2021. Production in Goiás should reach 18.7 million tonnes, a decrease of 7.9% compared to the previous harvest, when the state reached a production record. This month, Mato Grosso do Sul reevaluated its production estimate by 10.4% and estimated a production of 15.0 million tonnes, an increase of 14.0% in relation to the volume produced in 2025.

SORGHUM (grain) - The third forecast for the 2026 harvest was 4.7 million tonnes, an increase of 2.0% compared to the second forecast (November) and a drop of 13.0% compared to that obtained in the 2025 harvest. Among the Major Regions, only the South was expected to show an increase in production, 277.6%, despite its still small output, nearly 15.1 thousand tonnes. In the North, the drop should be 4.6%; in the Northeast, 29.3%; in the Southeast, 16.4% and in the Central-West, 8.9%. In the South, production was expected to recover in Rio Grande do Sul, which has experienced successive climate problems in recent years. Sorghum production should correspond to 1.4% of the national total of grains, oilseeds and legumes, distributed over 1.5 million planted hectares.

In the comparison between forecasts, December and November, there was a positive change in production. All Major Regions tended to increase their production, with the exception of the Central-West, where stability predominates. In the South, the change was 39.9%. In the Southeast, production should increase 1.5%, given the revaluations of São Paulo. In the Northeast, production increased by 23.0%, due to the increase in the production estimate for Piauí. In the North, the production change should be around 2.7%, with Tocantins driving this increase.