In October 2025, industrial prices changed -0.48% compared to September 2025, the ninth consecutive negative result. In this comparison, 11 of the 24 industrial activities experienced price decreases. The cumulative change for the year was -4.33%, while the cumulative change over 12 months was -1.82%. In October 2024, the IPP (Industrial Production Price Index) was 0.97% in the month-to-month comparison.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the Mining and Quarrying and Manufacturing Industries measures the "factory gate" prices of products, excluding taxes and freight, and covers the braod economic categories.

In October 2025, industry prices changed -0.48% compared to September 2025 (-0.24%). Eleven of the 24 industrial activities investigated in the survey showed negative price changes compared to the preceding month. In comparison, 12 activities had lower average prices in September compared to August.

The four most significant changes were in other chemical products (-2.00%); perfumes, soaps and cleaning products (1.89%); basic metals (1.80%); and footwear and leather goods (-1.60%).

Producer Price Index, by Mining and Quarrying and Manufacturing Industries (General Industry) and Sections, Brazil, last three months

Food was the most prominent industrial sector in the overall result, when comparing October and September prices. This sector was responsible for -0.36 percentage points (pp) of influence on the -0.48% change in general industry. Also noteworthy in this category were other chemical products, with -0.16 pp of influence, basic metals (0.11 pp) and petroleum refining and biofuels (-0.09 pp).

The year-to-date figure was -4.33% in October. For comparison, in the previous year (2024) the cumulative rate up to October was 6.49%. The cumulative rate for the year up to this reference month is the second lowest ever recorded for an October since the beginning of the time series in 2014.

Among the activities that, in October 2025, had the largest changes in the cumulative rate for the year, the following stood out: Mining and Quarrying industries (-14.14%), printing (-12.24%), basic metals (-9.78%) and wood (-9.50%). The main influences were registered in food: -2.43 percentage points, mining and quarrying industries: -0.68 percentage points, basic metals: -0.68 percentage points and petroleum refining and biofuels: -0.54 percentage points.

The cumulative rate over 12 months, calculated by comparing the prices of October 2025 to those of October 2024, was -1.82% in this reference month. In September, this same indicator had registered a rate of -0.39%.

The sectors with the four largest price changes in October compared to the same month of the previous year were: printing (14.49% change); mining and quarrying industries (-7.87%); wood (-7.72%); and food (-5.94%). Also, in comparison to the same month of the previous year, the sectors with the greatest influence on the aggregate result were: food (-1.51 percentage points); petroleum refining and biofuels (-0.38 percentage points); mining and quarrying industries (-0.36 percentage points); and motor vehicles (0.25 percentage points).

Among the broad economic categories, the October result was reflected as follows: 0.19% change in capital goods (BK); -0.65% in intermediate goods (BI); The change in consumer goods (BC) was -0.38%, with durable consumer goods (BCD) showing a change of 0.06%, while semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (BCND) showed a change of -0.46%.

The main influence among the broad economic categories was exerted by intermediate goods, whose weight in the composition of the overall index was 53.74% and accounted for -0.35 percentage points of the -0.48% change in mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries.

Completing the list are consumer goods, with an influence of -0.14 percentage points, and capital goods with 0.01 percentage points. In the case of consumer goods, the influence observed in October is divided into 0.00 percentage points, due to the change in the prices of durable consumer goods, and -0.15 percentage points associated with the change in semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods.

Producer Price Index, change by Mining and Quarrying and Manufacturing Industries (General Industry) and Broad Economic Categories, Brazil, last three months

In the year-to-date figures, the change reached 0.18% for capital goods; -6.92% for intermediate goods; and -1.40% for consumer goods – with durable consumer goods accumulating a change of 2.76%, while semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods showed -2.18%.

In terms of influence on the year-to-date result, capital goods accounted for 0.01 percentage points of the -4.33% observed in the overall industry up to October of this year. Intermediate goods, in turn, accounted for -3.82 percentage points, while consumer goods exerted an influence of -0.52 percentage points on the aggregate result of the industry, an influence that is divided into 0.16 percentage points due to changes in the prices of durable consumer goods and -0.68 percentage points caused by changes in semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods.

Over the past 12 months, the price change for capital goods was 2.83% in October 2025. The prices of intermediate goods, in turn, changed by -4.15% during this one-year period, and the change in consumer goods was 0.66%, with durable consumer goods showing a price change of 2.96% and semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods showing a change of 0.22%.

Regarding the influences on the aggregate result, with a weight of 38.33% in the calculation of the overall index, consumer goods accounted for 0.25 percentage points of the -1.82% cumulative change in the industry over 12 months in this reference month. In the October 2025 result, there was also an influence of 0.21 percentage points from capital goods and -2.28 percentage points from intermediate goods.

The result for consumer goods, in particular, was influenced by 0.18 percentage points from durable consumer goods and by 0.07 percentage points from semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods, the latter accounting for 83.47% of the index for that broad category.

Mining and quarrying industries: with a change of -0.69% in October, mining and quarrying industries again registered a decline compared to the previous month, marking the seventh negative result for this indicator in 2025. The prominence attributed to the sector is justified by its performance in long-term indicators, both in terms of change and influence.

In the cumulative rate in the year, the sector presented the largest change and the second largest absolute influence among the activities analyzed (-14.14% and -0.68 percentage points, in a total change of -4.33%, respectively). In the annual indicator, the sector registered a drop of 7.87%, representing the largest contraction and the second largest absolute change among the sectors investigated. Furthermore, it presented the third most significant influence, with -0.36 percentage points, in an overall change of -1.82%.

Food: for the sixth consecutive month, the average price change in the sector is negative. In October compared to September, the decline was 1.47%, the second most intense in this interval (-3.42% in June). With this, the cumulative figure for the year was -9.45% (in October 2024 it was 9.56%) and the 12-month figure was -5.94%, the most intense negative result since September 2023 (-6.46%).

The sector's prominence is due to the fact that it had the fourth most intense change, in terms of the cumulative figure over 12 months, and was the primary influence in all three calculated indicators: -0.36 percentage points, in -0.48%, in the comparison between October and September; -2.43 percentage points, in -4.33%, in the accumulated figure for the year; and -1.51 percentage points, in -1.82%, in the accumulated 12 months.

The four products that stood out most in terms of influence in the monthly comparison accounted for -0.64 percentage points of the -1.47% change, three of them in negative territory. All the highlighted changes are of products whose prices fell during the period. It is worth mentioning that two are common to both lists, "sterilized/UHT/Long Life milk" and "VHP (very high polarization) sugar".

Focusing on the products with the greatest influence, it is worth noting that the decline in sugar prices is in line with the seasonality of the crops. It is also a period of greater collection of raw milk, reflected in the price of processed milk. The prices of "frozen poultry meat and offal" rose in part due to the resumption of purchases by foreign countries, a movement that was not followed only by China. Finally, the lower prices negotiated by companies producing "fresh and chilled beef" were justified either by a decrease in demand or by occasional commercial discounts.

Petroleum refining and biofuels: after three positive results, prices in the sector fell 0.90% from September to October. As a result, the year-to-date figure was -5.42% (it was -0.26% in October 2024) and the 12-month figure was -3.78%.

The sector's prominence is due to it being the fourth largest influence in the monthly comparison (-0.09 pp, in -0.48%) and in the year-to-date figure (-0.54 p.p., in -4.33%), and the second largest in the 12-month figure (-0.38 pp, in -1.82%).

Two products (“liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)” and “fuel oils, except diesel fuel”) stand out both in terms of change and influence, both with negative changes. However, “gasoline, except for aviation, the second most heavily weighted product in the sector's calculation (23.05%), also appears among the most influential, showing a negative change.

Other chemical products: comparing October to September, the price change in the chemical industry was the most intense recorded in the IPP, a 2.00% decrease that accounted for a -0.16 percentage point influence on the overall industry result (-0.48%). The sector has the third highest weight in the IPP calculation (7.92%), and the influence exerted in October was the second most intense among the activities investigated in the survey.

Similar to what had been observed in the previous month, October showed a widespread decline in the prices of the products surveyed, and this dynamic was reflected in the results of the economic groups – with petrochemicals and agricultural inputs (pesticides and fertilizers) registering negative rates compared to the average prices practiced in September.

With weakened global demand and domestic supply pressured by increased imports, most petrochemical products presented negative price changes in various sectors, including "high-density polyethylene (HDPE)," which, despite a moderate reduction in international quotations, showed negative price changes. However, "high-density polyethylene (HDPE)" was a counterpoint, trading at higher prices in Brazilian reais (R$) even amidst the current currency depreciation.

Another product with a change opposite to the sector average was "printing inks and varnishes," which showed price increases during a period of seasonally increased demand for inputs in the graphic arts industry. The October rate was noteworthy for both its magnitude and its influence on the overall result.

"NPK-based fertilizers" and "herbicides for agricultural use" completed the list of main influences on the result compared to the previous month, both with lower prices. In the case of the former, the reduction in the international cost of macronutrients was compounded by the weak demand in domestic agriculture, which has also been affecting the pesticide market.

After three consecutive months of price reductions, the year-to-date figure for the chemical industry reached -3.93%, while in the comparison against October 2024, the factory gate result was -3.00%.

Basic metals: the sector showed a 1.80% increase from September to October, reaching its second consecutive positive result after a series of declines between January and August. Among all the activities analyzed in the survey, this change in the monthly indicator stood out as the third most intense, as well as representing the third main influence (0.11 pp out of -0.48%) on the overall result of the indicator, being the most positive.

However, despite the positive changes in the last two months, in the first 10 months of 2025 the activity still accumulated a contraction of 9.78%. In this indicator, the activity also stood out, again as the third most intense change in this type of comparison and as the second main influence on the overall indicator, accounting for -0.68 pp out of -4.33%. And in the cumulative rate in 12 months, the decline intensified, with the prices of October 2025 being currently, on average, 2.02% lower than those of October 2024.

Of the four products with the greatest monthly influence, two followed the sector's trend and showed positive results for the month, both from the non-ferrous metals group ("gold for non-monetary uses," the product with the greatest weight in the activity, and "copper and copper alloy bars, profiles and rods"). Two others stood out with a negative impact on the sector's result, one from the non-ferrous metals group ("aluminum oxide [calcined alumina]") and the other from the steel industry group ("ingots, blocks, billets or plates of carbon steel"). These four products with the greatest influence on the monthly indicator impacted the activity's result by 1.44 percentage points, therefore the influence of the remaining 20 products was 0.36 percentage points.

The group with the greatest influence on the month's result, with a positive impact, was non-ferrous metals. Its changes are usually linked to price fluctuations. International stock markets have been impacted, mainly, by changes in the price of gold (as occurred in September and again in October), aluminum, and copper. It's also worth highlighting the importance of the exchange rate in explaining the results of the group and the sector as a whole: in October, the dollar appreciated 0.3% against the real, but it has already accumulated a drop of 11.7% in 2025 and 4.2% in the last 12 months, which helps explain the longer-term results of the activity.

The steelmaking group, which has the greatest weight in the activity and was the one that most influenced the cumulative negative result for the year, moved in the opposite direction of the sector in the month and showed a change of -0.10% in October. This result can be partially attributed to a greater supply of steel in the domestic market, resulting from an increase in the imports of the Chinese product and lower external demand. Adding to these, is the fall of the dollar this year, which helps explaining the cumulative decline in iron ore prices throughout 2025, despite the increase observed in the commodity in recent months. With the October result, the group also accumulated a drop of 10.36% for the year and 8.35% in the last 12 months.

Motor vehicles: in October, the activity showed a monthly change of 0.06%, slowing down compared to September, when it changed by 0.54%. In October 2024, the activity had changed by 0.80% on the margin. In the cumulative result in 12 months, the activity slowed to 3.36% in October, 0.76 pp below the value of 4.12% verified in September. In the cumulative index of the year, there is a positive change of 2.19% up to October. This month, the activity stood out as the fourth largest influence in absolute value in the accumulated 12 months (0.25 p.p.) and as the fourth largest weight among all the activities analyzed: 7.86%.

Of the total monthly change of 0.06%, four products were responsible for -0.04 pp: "trailers and semi-trailers, except for agricultural use" and "passenger cars, gasoline or flex-fuel", with positive change, and "tractor-trucks, for trailers and semi-trailers" and "gear and transmission systems for motor vehicles", with negative change. The remaining 19 products were responsible for the other 0.10 pp.

Regarding the industrial group whose result is disclosed, "manufacture of cars, vans and utility vehicles", in October there was a monthly change of 0.08%, a cumulative change in the year of 2.40% and a cumulative change in 12 months of 2.53%.

The product with the greatest weight, "passenger car, gasoline or biofuel," showed a positive influence on all three indicators: monthly, year-to-date, and 12-month cumulative rate. The product with the second greatest weight, "tractor-truck, for trailers and semi-trailers," showed positive change and influence in the 12-month cumulative figure, but negative in terms of the monthly indicator.