In the seasonally-adjusted series, the national industrial output changed -0.1% in February 2025 over January. In the seasonally-unadjusted series, it grew 1.5% in relation to February 2024, the ninth positive rate in a row. The cumulative index in the year stayed at 1.4% and, in the last 12 months, at 2.6%.

Two out of four broad economic categories and 14 out of 25 industrial sectors surveyed reducer their output between January and February 2025. Among the activities, the most important negative influence was registered by the sector of pharmochemicals and pharmaceuticals (-12.3%), which interrupted two consecutive months of expansion in the production, a period in which it accumulated a gain of 7.1%.

Other relevant negative contributions to the overall industry came from machinery and equipment (-2.7%), wood products (-8.6%), miscellaneous manufacturing (-5.9%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-0.7%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-1.4%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (-1.5%) and furniture (-2.1%).

Among 11 activities that advanced their output, mining and quarrying industries (2.7%) and food products (1.7%) exerted the major impacts in February 2025, the former offsetting the drop of 2.5% recorded last January and the latter reporting the third consecutive month of growth in the production, a period in which it accumulated an expansion of 4.0%.

The positive contributions registered by the sectors of chemicals (2.1%), pulp, paper and paper products (1.8%), rubber products and plastic material (1.2%) and other transportation equipment (2.2%) should be highlighted as well.

Among the broad economic categories, still comparing with January 2025 in the seasonally-adjusted series, durable consumer goods (-3.2%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (-0.8%) reported the negative rates in February 2025 and offset part of the growth registered in the previous month (3.8% and 3.2%, respectively).

On the other hand, the sectors producing capital goods (0.8%) and intermediate goods (0.8%) registered the advances this month, the former recording the second consecutive month of expansion in the production, accumulating a gain of 3.2%, and the latter offsetting part of the drop of 1.6% reported in the previous month.

Quarterly moving average changes -0.1% in quarter ended in February

After also recording losses in January 2025 (-0.4%) and in December 2024 (-0.4%), the quarterly moving average for industry negatively changed 0.1% in the quarter ended in February 2025 against the level of the previous month in the seasonally-adjusted series. Among the broad economic categories, durable consumer goods (-0.8%) and intermediate goods (-0.1%) reported the negative rates in February 2025.

After registering 0.1% in January 2025, the sector producing capital goods registered a null change (0.0%) this month. On the other hand, the segment of semi and non-durable consumer goods (0.1%) recorded the only positive figure in February 2025 and interrupted five consecutive months of drop, a period in which it accumulated a gain of 4.3%.

Industrial output advances 1.5% over February 2024

Compared with February last year, industry grew 1.5%, with positive results in three out of four broad economic categories, 15 out of 25 sectors, 50 out of 80 groups and 55.0% of 789 products surveyed. It is worth mentioning that February 2025 (20 days) had one more business day than the same month in the previous year (19).

Among the activities, the major positive influences on the overall industry were registered by motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (13.3%), machinery and equipment (11.9%) and chemicals (5.0%), leveraged, to a great extent, by the bigger production of items cars, car pieces, vehicle for transportation of goods, trucks and tractor-trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, in the first one; air conditioners, wall-mounted or transportable (including split systems), forklift trucks, wet Christmas tree for pipelines, machinery or devices for the agricultural sector, centrifugal pumps, hydraulic tools, machining centers for metal manufacturing and motor graders, in the second one; and NPK-based fertilizers, fungicides and insecticides (both of them for agricultural use), herbicides for plants and insecticides for domestic and/or industrial use, in the third one.

Other important positive contributions came from the sectors of basic metals (3.7%), textiles (11.7%), electrical machinery and apparatus (6.8%), maintenance, repair and installation of machinery and equipment (10.2%), fabricated metal products (5.1%), rubber products and plastic material (3.9%), furniture (11.6%), other transportation equipment (9.4%) and manufacture of wearing apparel and accessories (6.2%).

Among ten activities that dropped, coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-4.3%) and mining and quarrying industries (-3.2%) exerted the biggest influences on the industry average in relation to February 2024, mainly pressed by the smaller production of diesel fuel in the former and of crude petroleum oil and iron ore in the latter. It should also highlight the negative impacts in the sectors of beverages (-6.6%), pulp, paper and paper products (-5.4%) and wood products (-10.4%).

Intermediate goods were the only category to retreat against February 2024

Compared with the same month of 2024, durable consumer goods (17.1%) and capital goods (8.5%) registered the highest rises among the broad economic categories. The sector producing semi and non-durable consumer goods (0.1%) also recorded a positive rate, though lower than the industry average (1.5%). On the other hand, the segment of intermediate goods (-0.1%) reported the only negative figure in February 2025.

Having grown 17.1% in February 2025 over the same period of 2024, the sector of durable consumer goods registered the ninth consecutive positive rate and the highest one since November 2024 (19.3%), leverage by a bigger manufacture of cars (15.3%) and brown goods (31.0%). It should also highlight the advances in white goods (4.2%), motorcycles (23.1%) and in the groups of other household appliances (17.8%) and furniture (13.4%).

The production of capital goods grew 8.5% in February 2025 over the same period of the previous year and recorded the eleventh consecutive positive rate in this comparison. That segment was influenced by the advances in capital goods for industrial use (13.3%) and for transportation equipment (5.8%), leveraged by the bigger production of serial (11.3%) and non-serial capital goods (34.1%), in the former; and of vehicle for transportation of goods, trucks, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, planes and trailers and semi-trailers, in the latter. The other positive results came from the groups of capital goods for agriculture (5.9%), for construction (9.5%) and for electricity (4.7%). In contrast, the sub-sector of capital goods for mixed use (-1.2%) reported the only negative rate in the monthly index of February 2025.

Still comparing with the same month last year, the segment of semi and non-durable consumer goods registered a positive change of 0.1% in February 2025, after recording a null change (0.0%) last January, when it interrupted two consecutive months of drop in the production: December 2024 (-2.3%) and November 2024 (-2.7%). The positive performance this month was explained by the expansion observed in the group of fuels (7.9%), leveraged by the bigger production of motor gasoline.

The major negative impacts came from food and beverages for domestic consumption (-0.7%) and semi-durable (-1.6%), pressed by the smaller production of beer and draft beer, refined sugar from sugarcane, refined soybean oil, powdered preparations for the production of beverages, ice cream and popsicles, sterilized/UHT/long-life milk, cookies and crackers, concentrated orange juice, and candies and bar chocolate, in the former; and of mobile telephones, women’s synthetic footwear, women´s shirts, blouses and the like (knitted or not), dresses (knitted or not), men´s synthetic footwear, curtains, children´s wearing apparel and its accessories (knitted or not), breeches, dungarees, shorts and the like (knitted or not) and miscellaneous wood articles, in the latter.

It should also mention the negative results of the group of non-durable (-0.7%) and food and beverages for domestic consumption (-12.4%), influenced by the retreat in the production of items vaccines and serum, powdered and bar soaps or detergents for domestic or industrial use, medicines, knitted panties, soaps, toilet paper, books, on-demand brochures or forms, and softeners, in the former; and fresh, cooled or frozen fish fillets and other meat, and frozen fish, in the latter.

The sector producing intermediate goods recorded a negative change of 0.1% in February 2025 and interrupted eight consecutive months of positive rates in this comparison. The result this month was explained by the retreat in the activities of coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-8.1%), mining and quarrying industries (-3.2%), and pulp, paper and paper products (-6.2%), whereas the positive pressures were reported by motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (12.9%), chemicals (6.7%), basic metals (3.7%), textiles (14.6%), fabricated metal products (4.9%), rubber products and plastic material (4.4%), machinery and equipment (6.3%) and non-metallic mineral products (2.0%).

Still in that economic category, it is also worth mentioning the results of the groups of typical inputs for civil construction (4.1%), with its eleventh consecutive positive rate in this comparison; and of packaging (-0.8%), which interrupted 16 consecutive months of growth in the production.

Cumulative index in the first two months of 2025 grows 1.4%

The cumulative index in the year over the same period last year stayed at 1.4%, with positive figures in three out of four broad economic categories, 16 out of 25 sectors, 50 out of 80 groups and 57.5% of 789 products surveyed. Among the activities, the major positive influences came from motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (13.0%) and machinery and equipment (12.5%), mainly leveraged by the bigger production of items cars, car pieces, vehicles for transportation of goods, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, trailers and semi-trailers, and trucks, in the former; and wall/window or transportable air conditioners (including split systems), wet Christmas tree for pipelines, machinery and devices for the agricultural sector, forklift trucks, centrifugal pumps, motor graders, and agricultural tractors, in the latter.

Other important positive contributions came from chemicals (3.7%), basic metals (4.3%), electrical machinery and apparatus (9.2%), textiles (14.4%), fabricated metal products (6.0%), rubber products and plastic material (3.8%), maintenance, repair and installation of machinery and equipment (9.1%), furniture (10.1%), pharmochemicals and pharmaceuticals (5.6%) and miscellaneous manufacturing (8.7%).

Among nine dropping activities, still comparing with January-February 2024, mining and quarrying industries (-4.3%) and coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-4.1%) exerted the biggest influences on the industry average, mainly pressed by the smaller production of crude petroleum oil and iron ore, in the former; and of diesel fuel, in the latter. It is also worth highlighting the negative impacts registered by the sectors of beverages (-5.5%) and pulp, paper and paper products (-4.1%).

Among the broad economic categories, the results for the first two months of 2025 showed more dynamism for durable consumer goods (16.8%) and capital goods (8.0%), leveraged, to a great extent, by the bigger production of cars (16.3%) and household appliances (16.5%), in the former; and of capital goods for industrial use (11.3%), for transportation equipment (4.9%) and for agriculture (10.4%), in the latter. The sector producing intermediate goods (0.1%) also registered a positive rate in the cumulative index of the first two month of 2025, though it recorded a lower advance than the industry average (1.4%). Having registered a null change (0.0%) in the cumulative index for the period of January-February 2025, the segment of semi and non-durable consumer goods was the only economic category that did not show a positive change, thus repeating the production level of the same period a year ago.

IBGE updates seasonal-adjustment methods of short-term surveys

The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) will update the parameters of the seasonal-adjustment methods of the Monthly Survey of Industry: Physical Production (PIM-PF) Brazil, Monthly Survey of Industry: Physical Production (PIM-PF) Regional, Monthly Survey of Trade (PMC) and monthly Survey of Services (PMS).

They are routine procedures, accomplished for the last tile in April 2022, aiming at incorporating the data available in more recent periods. The statistical modeling applied aims at taking the calendar and seasonal effects out of the time series of those surveys, which does not imply changing the original data.

The complete technical and methodological notes of each survey can be accessed here. For more information on the Seasonal Adjustment of Time series, please access here. The results of the updating of the seasonal-adjustment methods will be released on the release date of each survey Monthly Survey of Industry: Physical Production (PIM-PF) Brazil - April 2, at 9 am, Monthly Survey of Industry: Physical Production (PIM-PF) Regional - April 8, at 9 am, Monthly Survey of Trade (PMC) - April 9, at 9 am, and Monthly Survey of Services (PMS) - April 10, at 9 am.