In February, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds estimated for 2025 should total 323.8 million tonnes, 10.6% higher than that obtained in 2024 (292.7 million tonnes) with an increase of 31.1 million tonnes; and 0.5% below that reported in January, with a drop of 1.6 million tonnes.

The area to be harvested was 81.0 million hectares, an increase of 2.4% compared to the area harvested in 2024, with an increase of 1.9 million hectares, and an increase of 28,921 hectares (0.0%) compared to January.

Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products in this group, which together represent 92.9% of the estimated production and account for 87.5% of the area to be harvested. Compared to the previous year, there were increases of 3.2% in the area to be harvested for upland cotton (seed); 7.1% for paddy rice; 0.3% for beans; 2.8% for soybeans; 2.2% for corn (a decline of 1.4% for 1st crop corn and an increase of 3.2% for 2nd crop corn); and 1.3% for sorghum, with a 2.5% decline for wheat.

In terms of production, there were increases of 1.8% for upland cotton (seed); 9.0% for rice; 9.6% for beans; 13.4% for soybeans; 8.8% for corn (growth of 10.3% for 1st crop corn and 8.4% for 2nd crop corn); 3.7% for sorghum, as well as a decrease of 3.8% for wheat.

The February estimate for soybeans was 164.4 million tonnes. As for corn, the estimate was 124.8 million tonnes (25.3 million tonnes of first crop corn and 99.5 million tonnes for second crop corn). Rice production was estimated at 11.5 million tonnes; wheat at 7.2 million tonnes; upland cotton seed at 9.0 million tonnes; and sorghum at 4.1 million tonnes.

The estimate for the production of cereals, legumes, and oilseeds showed a positive annual change for the Central-West (10.7%), South (11.7%), Southeast (12.1%), Northeast (10.2%) and North (3.5%) regions. Regarding the monthly change, production increased in the Northeast (0.3%), Southeast (1.2%) and Central-West (0.6%), while the North (-0.1%) and South (-3.2%) regions showed declines.

Mato Grosso leads as the largest national grain producer, with a share of 29.8%, followed by Paraná (13.6%), Goiás (11.5%), Rio Grande do Sul (11.4%), Mato Grosso do Sul (7.9%) and Minas Gerais (5.6%), which together accounted for 79.8% of the total. Regarding regional participation, the distribution is as follows: Central-West (49.4%), South (27.0%), Southeast (9.0%), Northeast (8.8%) and North (5.8%).

Highlights in the February 2025 estimate compared to the previous month

Compared to January, there were increases in the production estimates for canephora coffee (1.5% or 15,482 t), oats (1.2% or 12,300 t), rice (0.7% or 81,765 t), second-crop corn (0.6% or 579,011 t), second-crop potatoes (0.3% or 4,069 t) and first-crop corn (0.2% or 60,279 t), but there were declines in the production estimates for first-crop potatoes (-4.8% or -100,154 t), first-crop beans (-1.9% or 23,577 t), grapes (-1.7% or -34,385 t), sorghum (-1.6% or -67, 695 t), soybeans (-1.3% or -2,174,276 t), 2nd crop beans (-1.1% or -15,292 t), wheat (-0.6% or -40,255 t), 3rd crop beans (-0.3% or -2,090 t), 3rd crop potatoes (-0.1% or -735 t), Arabica coffee (-0.1% or -1,426 t) and barley (-0.0% or -100 t).

The main positive absolute changes in production estimates, in relation to the previous month, occurred in Goiás (940,856 t), Minas Gerais (341,149 t), Paraná (284,300 t), Bahia (76,400 t), Maranhão (15,655 t), Tocantins (4,521 t), Pernambuco (4,018 t), Amapá (835 t) and Piauí (253 t), while the negative changes occurred in Rio Grande do Sul (-3,214,922 t), Rondônia (-26,497 t), Alagoas (-771 t) and Rio de Janeiro (-265 t).

RICE (in husk) – The estimated rice production was 11.5 million tonnes, up 0.7% from the previous month's estimate and 9.0% from the 2024 crop, with a 7.1% increase in the area to be harvested and a 1.8% increase in productivity. The crop's prices and profitability were attractive to producers, encouraging an increase in the area at planting time. The increase in rice areas is an important factor for the country, as for some years now, rice has been losing ground to more profitable crops such as soybeans and corn.

POTATOES – Production, considering the three crops of the product, is expected to reach 4.3 million tonnes, a reduction of 2.2% compared to January. São Paulo was a negative highlight, as its production estimate was reduced by 16.8% compared to the January estimate, and should reach a production of 704.8 thousand tonnes. The 1st crop is expected to account for 46.3% of the total potato production for the year. Production was estimated at 2.0 million tonnes, a 4.8% reduction compared to the January survey – result mainly influenced by the figures for São Paulo (-33.2%). Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul increased their production estimates by 6.2% and 1.7%, respectively.

The 2nd crop, which represents 33.4% of total production, was estimated at 1.4 million tonnes, an increase of 0.3% compared to January, with the estimated average yield increasing by 0.5% and the area to be harvested being reduced by 0.2%. Rio Grande do Sul, with an increase of 11.0%, and Goiás, with 157.1%, were the positive highlights in the increase in the production estimate compared to the previous month.

For the 3rd crop, the production estimate was 0.1% lower than that of January, reaching 883.5 thousand tonnes. Only Goiás updated the figures for this second survey, with its production estimate being reduced by 0.3% compared to the previous month.

COFFEE (beans) - Brazilian production, considering the two species, Arabica and Canephora, was estimated at 3.2 million tonnes, or 52.8 million 60 kg bags, an increase of 0.4% compared to the previous month, with the average yield increasing by the same amount.

For Arabica coffee, the estimated production was 2.1 million tonnes or 34.9 million 60 kg bags, a decline of 0.1% compared to the previous month and 12.8% compared to the volume produced in 2024. For the 2025 crop, a negative biennial is expected, that is, a natural decline in production due to the physiological characteristics of the species, in which in even-numbered years, tend to produce more, sacrificing the production of the following year, due to greater exhaustion of the plants.

For canephora coffee, the production estimate was 1.1 million tonnes or 17.9 million 60 kg bags, an increase of 1.5% compared to the previous month and 4.9% compared to the volume produced in 2024, with increases of 1.0% in the area to be harvested and 3.9% in the average yield.

WINTER CEREALS (grain) – The main winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oats and barley. For wheat (grain), the estimated production reached 7.2 million tonnes, a decline of 0.6% compared to the previous month and 3.8% compared to 2024. In recent years, the climate in the South Region has not been favorable to winter crops. The Southern Region is expected to account for 84.0% of national wheat production in 2025.

Oat production (in grain) was estimated at 1.1 million tonnes, an increase of 1.2% compared to the previous month and 0.9% compared to the volume harvested in 2024. The average yield grew by 0.5%, while the planted area and the area to be harvested increased by 0.7%. The largest producers of the cereal are Rio Grande do Sul, with 852.6 thousand tonnes, an increase of 5.4% compared to the volume harvested in 2024, with increases of 2.6% in the area to be harvested and 2.7% in average yield; and Paraná, with 179.3 thousand tonnes, an increase of 7.4% compared to January and 7.7% compared to 2024.

For barley (grain), the estimated production was 418.7 thousand tonnes, an increase of 0.6% compared to the volume produced in 2024. The planted area shows an increase of 1.6%, while the average yield declined by 1.0% in this last comparison. The largest barley producers are Paraná, with 296.1 thousand tonnes, a growth of 3.1% compared to 2024, and should account for 70.7% of the 2025 Brazilian crop, and Rio Grande do Sul, with a production of 102.9 thousand tonnes, a decrease of 5.7% compared to the volume produced in 2024. The production in Rio Grande do Sul should represent 24.6% of the total barley produced by the country in 2025.

BEANS (grain) – The estimate for bean production, considering the three crops, should reach 3.4 million tonnes, a decline of 1.2% compared to January and growth of 9.6% over the 2024 crop. This production should meet Brazilian domestic consumption for 2025, with no need for import.

The estimated production of the 1st crop beans was 1.2 million tonnes, representing 35.4% of the national share among the three crops, 1.9% lower than the January survey. In this comparison, a reduction of 0.3% in the planted area and 2.0% in the average yield were observed. In relation to the Major Regions, there was a decrease in the month of bean production in the Northeast (-2.0%), Southeast (-1.3%), South (-1.6%) and Central-West (-3.7%). In the North Region, an increase of 0.2% in production was estimated. In the Northeast, Southeast and Central-West, there was a reduction in the average yield of 2.5%, 2.7% and 3.7%, respectively.

Second-crop beans were estimated at 1.4 million tonnes, corresponding to 41.1% of the share among the three crops. Compared to January, there was a 1.1% reduction in the production estimate, justified by the reduction in the area to be harvested (-0.7%) and the forecast for average yield (-0.4%). The production estimate was maintained in the North, Northeast and Southeast regions.

Regarding 3rd crop beans, the production estimate for February was 799.6 thousand tonnes, a reduction of 0.3% compared to the previous month. Of the nine states producing this crop, seven maintained the figures for January. There were reductions in the production estimate in Goiás (-0.8%) and Paraná (-22.2%). It is worth noting that Goiás and Minas Gerais are the states that contribute the most to beans crops, corresponding to 30.3% of the share (242.0 thousand tonnes) and 25.5% (203.8 thousand tonnes), respectively.

CORN (grain) - The estimated corn production was 124.8 million tonnes, an increase of 0.5% compared to the previous month and 8.8% compared to the volume produced in 2024. The area to be harvested shows an increase of 2.2%, as does the average yield, with a growth of 6.5% in this comparison, expected to reach 5,720 kg/ha. In 2024, corn production was affected by weather problems in several producing states, and it is expected to recover in 2025.

First-crop corn had an estimated production of 25.3 million tonnes, an increase of 0.2% compared to January and 10.3% compared to the volume produced at the same time in 2024. The planted area in the current crop is expected to fall by 2.6%, while the yield is expected to grow by 11.9%, due to the weather that has benefited crops in most producing states.

The production of the second-crop corn showed growth of 0.6% compared to the previous month and 8.4% compared to the volume produced at the same time in 2024. Mato Grosso, with the largest national share in the production of second-crop corn, with 46.0% of the total, estimated a production of 45.8 million tonnes, a decline of 3.7% compared to the volume produced in 2024. In this comparison, the planted area grew by 2.8%, with a decline of 6.4% in the average yield. The state has been receiving good volumes of rainfall, which has allowed the increase in the initially estimated production potential. In Minas Gerais, the estimate is growing by 5.4% compared to the previous month, due to the average yield that increased by 5.8%.

SOYBEAN (grain) – Even with the monthly revisiew of 2.2 million tonnes less, mainly reflecting the losses recorded in Rio Grande do Sul, the national production of this oilseed should reach a new record in the time series, with 164.4 million tonnes in 2025, an increase of 13.4% compared to the amount obtained in the previous year.

SORGHUM (grain) – The February estimate for sorghum production was 4.1 million tonnes, representing a 1.6% drop compared to January and a 3.7% increase compared to the 2024 crop. The national average yield is estimated at 3,065 kg/ha, 0.3% lower in the monthly comparison, although 2.3% higher than that obtained in 2024. Sorghum should occupy 1.3 million hectares, corresponding to 1.7% of the areas destined for cereals, legumes and oilseeds in the 2025 crop, contributing 1.3% to this production.

GRAPES – Grape production is expected to reach 2.0 million tonnes, a 1.7% decline compared to the previous month and a 12.7% increase compared to 2024. In February, Pernambuco reassessed its production estimate, reporting a 5.0% reduction compared to January, with a 1.0% increase in average yield and a 6.0% decline in the area to be harvested. Pernambuco's production is expected to reach 717.3 thousand tonnes, accounting for 36.1% of the national total in 2025, the second largest national producer. Rio Grande do Sul, the largest Brazilian producer, accounting for 46.6% of the national total, reported a 0.4% increase in its production estimate compared to the previous month. Production is expected to reach 926.8 thousand tonnes, an increase of 35.0% compared to the previous year.