The first estimate for the national production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2025 was of a harvest of 311.0 million tonnes, a rise of 5.8% (or more 17.2 million tonnes) against the 2024 harvest.

The October´s estimate for the 2024 harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds reached 293.8 million tonnes, a drop of 6.9% (or less 21.6 million tonnes) against the 2023 harvest (315.4 million tonnes). It decreased by 1,368,218 tonnes (-0.5%) in relation to September.

The area to be harvested (78.7 million hectares) grew 1.1% over 2023 (more 864,711 hectares) and 0.0% (more 27,382 hectares) over September.

Rice, corn and soybeans were the three main products in this group. They represented 92.1% of the output estimate and accounted for 87.2% of the area to be harvested. Compared with 2023, the area for upland cottonseed increased 15.9%, paddy rice, 5.7%, beans, 6.7% and soybeans, 3.3%, whereas the area for corn declined 3.3% (reductions of 9.5% in corn - 1st crop and of 1.4% in corn - 2nd crop), wheat, 11.8% and sorghum, 1.6%.

In terms of output, upland cottonseed increased 14.5%, rice, 2.8%, beans, 5.3% and wheat, 5.3%. On the other hand, soybeans (-4.9%), corn (-11.9%, being -17.6% in corn - 1st crop and -10.3% in corn - 2nd crop) and sorghum (-8.7%) dropped.

In October 2024, the IBGE accomplished the first forecast of area and production for the Brazilian harvest of grains (cereals, legumes and oilseeds) in 2025, which should reach 311.0 million tonnes, an increase of 5.8% (or more 17.2 million tonnes) against the 2024 harvest, which has been facing a series of climate problems that reduced the average yield of severla products that comprise the group of cereals, legumes and oilseeds. The increase in the output in relation to 2024 was mainly due to soybeans (10.9% or 15 725 592 t), corn - 1st crop (9.1% or 2 081 661 t), rice (6.0% or 633 328 t) and beans - 1st crop (18.1% or 164 084 t). For upland cottonseed and corn - 2nd crop, declines of 0.7% or -36 928 tonnes and of 1.8% or -1 703 556 tonnes were estimated, respectively.

The output should grow in Paraná (13.6%), Rio Grande do Sul (12.4%), Mato Grosso do Sul (24.1%), Minas Gerais (5.0%), Goiás (2.0%), Bahia (3.8%), São Paulo (16.3%), Tocantins (0.3%), Santa Catarina (3.7%), Piauí (2.3%), Rondônia (10.6%) and Sergipe (0.3%). A decline in the output estimates is expected for Mato Grosso (-0.6%), Maranhão (-0.1%) and Pará (-13.3%).

UPLAND COTTONSEED -The estimate for the production of cotton was of 8.8 million tonnes, virtually the same as the 2024 harvest (-0.7%), with a growth of 0.6% in the estimated area to be planted, which should reach 2.0 million hectares. The average yield of 4 321 kg/ha should decrease 1.3%. Accounting for 71.3% of the national overall, Mato Grosso, the biggest producer, should produce 6.3 million tonnes, a drop of 1.0% in relation to 2024. Most of the areas producing cotton in the state are planted in the 2nd crop, after the harvest of soybeans.

PADDY RICE - The first estimate for 2025 was the output of 11.2 million tonnes, a growth of 6.0%, with an increase of 4.4% in the area to be harvested and a growth of 1.5% in the average yield. The prices and profitability of the culture are at fair levels for the producers, encouraging the increase in the area.

BEAN SEED - The first forecast for the output of beans in 2025, considering the three crops was of 3.3 million tonnes, an increase of 5.3% in relation to the 2024 harvest. The /first crop should produce 1.1 million tonnes; the second crop, 1.4 million tonnes and the third crop, 782.0 thousand tonnes. This production should address the Brazilian domestic consumption in 2025, not requiring to import the product.

CORN GRAIN - The estimate for the production of corn was of 115.9 million tonnes, an increase of 0.3% in relation to the crop harvested in 2024. This value represented a growth in the output of corn - 1st crop of 9.1%, due to the significant rise in the average yield (11.4%). Despite the unfavorable weather for the production of corn in 2024, when it significantly declined in relation to 2023, the new 2025 harvest should be unfavorably affected by a higher number of crops and the less attractive price of the cereal. In some producing Federation Units, rainfall came late, postponing the planting of soybeans, which might reduce the "planting window" for corn during the second crop.

For corn - 1st crop, the estimate is of a production of 24.9 million tonnes, a growth of 9.1% in relation to the 2024 harvest, with a decline of 2.1% in the area to be harvested and a growth of 11.4% in the average yield of the crops. Concerning corn - 2nd crop the estimated output was of 91.0 million tonnes, a decline of 1.8% in relation to 2024, with an increase of 0.3% in the area to be planted and a decrease of 2.1% in the average yield, 5 436 kg/ha.

SOYBEAN GRAIN - The first production estimate for 2025 pointed out that the output of soybeans should increase 10.9% in relation to 2024, adding up to 160.2 million tonnes, which would characterize a new record in the national production of this legume, surpassing the production recorded in 2023 Besides the high volume expected, the jump in the production was also due to the expected increase of 9.8% in the average yield, adding up to 3 475 kg/ha, as well as to a lower comparison base, after the drop in the Brazilian average productivity in the previous harvest.  

SORGHUM GRAIN -The estimated production of sorghum for 2025 was of 3.8 million tonnes, indicating a drop of 3.2% over that obtained in the 2024 harvest. The output should be smaller in the Central-West (-0.3%), Southeast (-6.0%) and Northeast (-11.5%), expanding in the South (1.3%) and north (5.7%), though in a insufficient volume to offset the downward pace. The production area was estimated at 1.3 million hectares, a reduction of 3.4% over the previous year, especially in the Central-West (-2.0%) and Southeast (-7.2%).

Harvest of 293.8 million tonnes is estimated in October 2024

The estimate of October 2024 for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds reached 293.8 million tonnes, 6.9% smaller than that obtained in 2023 (315.4 million tonnes), a reduction of 21.6 million tonnes. It declined 1 368 218 tonnes (-0.5%) in relation to the previous month. The area to be harvested was of 78.7 million hectares, increasing 864 711 hectares over the area harvested in 2023, a growth of 1.1%. In relation to the previous month, the area to be harvested increased by 27 382 hectares (0.0%).

Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products in this group, and, together, account for 92.1% of the output estimate and for 87.2% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year, the area to be harvested of upland cottonseed increased 15.9%, paddy rice, 5.7%, beans, 6.7% and soybeans, 3.3%, declining 3.3% for corn (reductions of 9.5% in corn - 1st crop and of 1.4% in corn -2nd crop), 11.8% for wheat and 1.6% for sorghum.

Concerning production, upland cottonseed increased 14.5%, rice, 2.8%, beans, 5.3% and wheat, 5.3%, declining 4.9% for soybeans, 11.9% for corn (reductions of 17.6% in corn - 1st crop and of 10.3% in corn - 2nd crop) and 8.7% for sorghum.

A production of 144.5 million tonnes was estimated for soybeans. As for corn, the estimate was of 115.5 million tonnes (22.8 million tonnes for corn - first crop and 92.7 million tonnes for corn - 2nd crop). The output of rice was estimated at 10.6 million tonnes, that of wheat, at 8.2 million tonnes, that of upland cottonseed, at 8.9 million tonnes and that of sorghum, at 3.9 million tonnes.

Four out of five regions reported negative annual changes in October

The estimated production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds registered a positive annula change for the North Region (12.5%), being negative for the others: South (- 1.1%), Central-West (-10.5%), Southeast (- 15.8%) and Northeast (-4.0%). Concerning the monthly change, the North (0.0%) and Southeast (0.0%) remained stable. The Northeast (-0.2%), South (-0.4%) and Central-West (-0.7%) declined.

Mato Grosso led the national production of grains with a share of 31.3%, followed by Paraná (12.8%), Rio Grande do Sul (12.0%), Goiás (10.7%), Mato Grosso do Sul (6.8%) and Minas Gerais (5.6%). These states together accounted for 79.2% of the national estimate. Regarding the regional shares, the distribution was: Central-West (49.1%), South (26.9%), Northeast (8.8%), Southeast (8.8%) and North (6.4%).

Highlights in the October 2024 estimate in relation to the previous month

The major absolute positive changes in the production estimates, against the previous month, occurred in Maranhão (20 573 t), Amazonas (14 689 t), Rondônia (8 790 t), Goiás (7 663 t) and Rio de Janeiro (26 t). The negative changes occurred in Mato Grosso do Sul (-1 018 673 t), Paraná (-244 800 t), Ceará (-65 158 t), Rio Grande do Sul (-50 407 t), Tocantins (-31 975 t), Alagoas (-6 108 t), Minas Gerais (-1 667 t), Pernambuco (-608 t), Rio Grande do Norte (-515 t) and Acre (-48 t).

POTATOES - Considering the three harvests of the product, the output should reach 4.5 million tonnes, an increase of 1.1% in relation to the September´s estimate. The first crop should contribute with 39.0% of the total amount of potatoes to be produced in the year. The estimated production was of 1.7 million tonnes, remaining stable in relation to September, since all the Federation Units maintained the figures from last month. The second crop, which represented 33.5% of the total output, was estimated at 1.5 million tonnes, more 230 tonnes than the September´s estimate, whereas the estimate of the average yield and the area to be harvested remained stable. For the third crop, the estimated output in October was 4.0% higher than that of September, reaching 1.2 million tonnes. Goiás increased its production estimate by 22.6% in relation to the previous month, as a result of the growth of 24.6% in the harvested area, having the average yield declined 1.6%.

COCOA NUT - The estimate for the Brazilian production of cocoa was of 280.0 thousand tonnes, reducing 4.4% in relation to the previous month and 3.7% in relation to 2023. The drop of 4.3% in the productivity of the crops was the major reason, causing reassessments in Bahia and Rondônia. Accounting for 39.8% of the total, Bahia was the second biggest producer of cocoa in Brazil, only behind Pará, which accounted for 53.0% of the national output.

COFFEE BEAN - Considering the two species, arabica and canephora, the Brazilian production was estimated at 3.4 million tonnes or 57.2 million 60-kg sacks, a decrease of 2.8% in relation to the previous month, having the average yield declined 3.4% and the harvested area grown 0.7%, respectively.

For coffea arabica, the production was estimated at 2.4 million tonnes or 40.1 million 60-kg sacks, a decline of 4.3% in relation to September and a growth of 1.6% in relation to the previous year. Minas Gerais reassessed the production estimates for coffea arabica in October, reducing 6.2% in relation to the previous month. The average yield declined 7.3%, whereas the harvested area grew 1.2%.

For coffea canephora, the production estimate was 1.0 million tonnes or 17.1 million 60-kg sacks, a growth of 1.0% in relation to the previous month and of 1.1% in the average yield. Compared with 2023, the output declined 2.6%, with drops of 1.4% in the harvested area and of 1.2% in the average yield.

WINTER CEREALS (grain) - The major winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oat and barley. For wheat (grain), the estimated production reached 8.2 million tonnes, a declined of 3.3% in relation to the previous month and a growth of 5.3% in relation to 2023.

The output of oat (grain) was estimated at 1.2 million tonnes, a decrease of 2.8% over September and a growth of 29.9% against 2023. The biggest producers of this cereal were Rio Grande do Sul, with 919.0 thousand tonnes, a decline of 3.0% in relation to September and an increase of 57.4% in relation to the volume harvested in 2023; and Paraná, with 162.3 thousand tonnes, decreasing 3.3% over September and 34.4% in relation to 2023.

As for barley (in grain), the estimated output was of 427.3 thousand tonnes, a decline of 0.7% in relation to September and a growth of 12.6% in relation to the previous year. The biggest producers of barley were Paraná, with 286.0 thousand tonnes, a share of 66.9% in the 2024 harvest, and Rio Grande do Sul, with 118.7 thousand tonnes, a share of 27.8% of the total.   

BEAN SEED - Considering the three crops, the estimate for the output of beans should reach 3.1 million tonnes, a decline of 0.1% in relation to the previous month and a growth of 5.3% over the 2023 harvest. This production should address the Brazilian domestic consumption in 2024, not requiring to import the product. Paraná was the biggest Brazilian producer of beans, with 830.1 thousand tonnes or 26.7% of share, followed by Minas Gerais, with 532.5 thousand tonnes or 17.1% of share, and Goiás, with 349.5 thousand tonnes or 11.2% of share.

The production of the first crop of beans was of 904.8 thousand tonnes, representing 29.1% of the national share among the three crops, less 1.0% than the September´s estimate. The second crop of beans was estimated at 1.4 million tonnes, corresponding to 45.3% of share among the three crops. Compared with September, the output increased 0.5%, explained by the increase in the area to be harvested (0.5%). Concerning the third crop of beans, the production estimate in October was of 796.8 thousand tonnes, a reduction of 0.3% in the production and of 0.4% in the area to be harvested over the previous month. Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul, which were not significant states in this harvest, reduced by 12.5% and 73.6% their estimated output, respectively.

CASSAVA (root) - The estimated output of cassava in October was of 18.9 million tonnes, dropping 1.5% in the annual comparison and 1.1% in the monthly one. Accounting for 31.4% of the overall cassava in Brazil and the major producer, the North estimated a drop of 1.5%, reflecting the smaller planted area (-1.2%), smaller harvested area (-0.8%) and a dropping average yield (-0.7%).

CORN (grain) - The estimate of the production of corn fell 1.0% in relation to September, adding up to 115.5 million tonnes, representing a reduction of 11.9% in the annual comparison.

Corn - 1st crop showed an output of 22.8 million tonnes, a decline of 0.3% in relation to the previous month. The Federation Units that increased their monthly output were Pernambuco (1.4%) and Rio de Janeiro (0.3%), whereas reductions were reported in Ceará (-12.0%), Rondônia (-7.4 %), Mato Grosso do Sul (-5.4%), Amazonas (-2.7%), Tocantins (-1.6%) and Rio Grande do Norte (-0.3%). The others registered a stable production.

Corn - 2nd crop recorded a monthly drop of 1.1% in the output, adding up to 92.7 million tonnes, influenced by a reduction of 1.1% in the average yield (5 554 kg/ha). Mato Grosso do Sul reduced its production by 10.7%, with a drop of 978.2 thousand tonnes in relation to September, still reflecting the lack of rainfall and high temperatures during the second crop. Pernambuco (-6.1%), Alagoas (-2.9%), Tocantins (-2.0%), Rondônia (-1.9%) and Maranhão (-0.1%) reported declines this month as well. 

SOYBEAN (grain) - The output should reach 144.5 million tonnes, decreasing 4.9% compared with the amount produced last year, adding up to 45.7 million hectares harvested. The production of this oilseed should represent nearly half of the total cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced in Brazil in 2024. More significant monthly changes were registered in some producer Federation Units, as in Mato Grosso do Sul, with a reduction of 0.3% in the maount produced, and in Rondônia, with an increase of 2.4% or 52.9 thousand tonnes. However, these adjustments did not affect the national estimate, which remained stable this month.