In May 2024, industry prices changed 0.45% compared to April, the fourth positive result in a row in this indicator. In this comparison, 15 of the 24 industrial activities had positive price changes. The cumulative result for the year was 1.37%, while the cumulative result for 12 months was 0.17%. In May 2023, the IPP had been -2.88%.

The Producer Price Index (IPP) for Mining and Quarrying and Manufacturing Industries measures the  “factory-gate” prices of products, without taxes and freight, and covers the braod economic categories.

In May 2024, industry prices changed 0.45% compared to April this year. Fifteen of the 24 industrial activities investigated in the survey showed positive price changes compared to the previous month. In comparison, 21 activities had presented higher average prices in April compared to the previous month, when the change of this same indicator had also been positive for the general industry.

The four most intense changes were in mining and quarrying industries (-4.98%); electrical machinery, apparatus and materials (1.91%); food (1.88%); and wearing apparel (1.76%).

The food sector was a highlight in the composition of the aggregate result, compared to April. The activity was responsible for 0.45 percentage points (pp) of influence on the 0.45% change in the general industry. Still in this regard, other activities that also stood out were mining and quarrying industries, with -0.25 pp of influence, basic metals (0.09 pp) and paper and pulp (0.06 pp).

The cumulative result for the year, which compares the prices of the reference month to those of December of the previous year, reached a change of 1.37%. In 2023, the cumulative rate until the month of May had been –3.84%. The value of the cumulative rate in the year up to this reference month is the fourth lowest ever recorded for a month of May since the beginning of the time series, in 2014.

In May 2024, among the activities that had the biggest changes in the year, the following stood out: paper and pulp (9.73%), basic metals (7.45%), pharmaceuticals (6.85%) and footwear and leather goods (5.85%). In the composition of the aggregate result of the industry, from the perspective of this same indicator (cumulative index in the year), the main influences were recorded in basic metals: 0.43 pp, paper and pulp: 0.29 pp, petroleum refining and biofuels: -0, 23 pp and other chemical products: 0.18 pp.

The cumulative result in 12 months was 0.17% in May. In the previous month, the rate had been –3.15%. The sectors with the four biggest price changes in the comparison of May with the same month of the previous year were: printing (7.08%); paper and pulp (7.04%); wearing apparel (6.74%); and footwear and leather products (4.81%). The sectors with the greatest influence on the aggregate result of this same comparison were: food (-0.24 pp); paper and pulp (0.22 pp); other chemical products (-0.16 pp); and wearing apparel (0.11 pp).

Among the broad economic categories, the price change in May compared to April 2024 had the following impact: 0.07% change in capital goods (BK); -0.20% in intermediate goods (BI); and 1.50% in consumer goods (BC), with the change observed in durable consumer goods (BCD) being 0.01%, while in semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (BCND) it was 1 .81%.

Also in this indicator, the main influence was exerted by consumer goods, whose weight in the composition of the general index was 37.23% and accounted for 0.55 pp of the 0.45% change in mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries. The list is completed by intermediate goods, with an influence of -0.11 pp and capital goods with 0.01 pp. In the case of consumer goods, the influence observed in May is divided into 0.00 pp, which was due to the change in the prices of durable consumer goods, and 0.55 pp associated with the change in semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods.

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In the cumulative index in the year, there was a change of 1.20% in capital goods; 0.17% in intermediate goods; and 3.25% in consumer goods - with durable consumer goods accumulating a change of 1.08%, while semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods, of 3.70%.

In terms of influence on the cumulative result in the year, capital goods were responsible for 0.09 pp of the 1.37% recorded in the general industry until May this year. Intermediate goods, in turn, accounted for 0.09 pp, while consumer goods exerted an influence of 1.19 pp on the industry's aggregate result, an influence that is divided into 0.07 pp due to changes in the prices of durable consumer goods and 1.12 pp caused by changes in semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods.

In the 12-month period, the price change of capital goods was -0.25% in May/2024. The prices of intermediate goods, in turn, changed -0.59% in this one-year period and the change in consumer goods was 1.39%, with durable consumer goods showing a price change of 1.69% and semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods of 1.33%.

With regard to the influences on the aggregate result, with a weight of 37.23% in the calculation of the general index, consumer goods were responsible for 0.51 pp of the 0.17% of cumulative change in 12 months in the industry, in this month of reference. In the May 2024 result, there was also an influence of -0.02 pp from capital goods and -0.33 pp from intermediate goods.

The result of consumer goods, in particular, was influenced by 0.10 pp by durable consumer goods and by 0.41 pp by semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods, the latter with a weight of 83.34% in the calculation of the index of that braod category.

Mining and quarrying industries: for the third consecutive month, prices in the sector fell compared to the previous month, -4.98% (the most intense rate among the three). As a result, the cumulative result for the year moved into the negative field, -3.42%, which had not happened since July 2023 (-1.45%). By way of comparison, in May 2023, the cumulative change was 4.82%. In the 12-month period, the change returned to the positive field, at 0.54%, which happened in five of the six months between December 2023 and May 2024 – the exception was April, with -4.05%.

The highlight given to the sector was due to the fact that, in the comparison between May and April, it presented the biggest change (negative, in this case) and the second influence (-0.25 pp, in 0.45%).

The two products with the greatest weight in the calculation (80.50%) – “crude petroleum oil” and “iron ore and its concentrates, exc. pelletized/sintered” –, contrary to what had been happening in previous months, had their prices change in the same direction, with those in May at lower levels than those in April.

Food: as occurred in April, the change was positive, now at 1.88%, the highest since October 2023, 1.98%. In the year to date, the change moved into the positive field, 0.10%, below that of January 2023, 0.49% (in May 2023, it was -1.76%), the last in the positive field. In terms of 12 months, as observed since April 2023, the comparison points to a negative change, -0.96%, the least intense after May 2023 (-2.40%).

The sector stood out for having the third largest change among all industrial activities. As a result, it was the first in influence (0.45 pp, in 0.45%). It was also the first influence in the cumulative result in 12 months (-0.24 pp, in 0.17%).

The four products that stood out, in terms of influence, on the monthly result, accounted for 0.95 pp, at 1.88%. Only one of them is at the same time among the highlights in terms of change and influence: “sterilized / UHT / Long Life Milk”. The upward trend in the milk chain is linked to a lower supply of the product, which responds to a period of heat and drought.

In terms of influence, in addition to the product already mentioned, the following complete the list: “residues from soybean extraction”, “VHP (very high polarization) sugar” and “semi-milled or milled rice, whether or not polished or burnished”. The drop in the price of sugar is in line with the advance of the sugarcane harvest. The prices of soybean derivatives accelerated in response to both greater demand, either internal or external, and the depreciation of the real against the dollar (0.1%, from April to May, 4.8%, cumulative index in the year, and 3.0%, cumulative index in 12 months). Finally, the increase in the price of rice responded to the logistical limitation of production flow in Rio Grande do Sul.

Wearing apparel: the activity presented the fourth most intense change in the monthly index, of 1.76%, taking the cumulative result for the year to 5.29%, and the third highest result in the cumulative result in 12 months, of 6.74%. It is worth mentioning that the monthly result is the fourth positive result of the year, second in intensity only to that of March, 2.67%.

The products with the biggest changes in May compared to April were “T-Shirts and undershirts” and “knit underwear and similar items”, with positive results; “women’s shirts and similar items, except knitted” and “men's shirts and similar items, except knitted”, with negative results. From the point of view of influence, “women's shirts and similar items, except knitted” is replaced by “women's knitted blouses, shirts and similar items”, whose impact is positive. The four products with the greatest influence accounted for 1.84 pp, at 1.76%, that is, the combined influence of the other 14 products is negative (-0.08 pp).

Paper and pulp: the activity presented the highest cumulatie index in the year, at 9.73%, and the second highest cumulative result in 12 months, at 7.04%. The monthly result was 1.71%, following the upward trend in the prices of raw materials (pulp) on the international market, although with lower intensity than that observed in the months of March and April 2024, in addition to the depreciation of the real against to the dollar (0.1%, from April to May, 4.8%, cumulative result in the year, and 3.0%, cumulative result in 12 months).

The products with the greatest positive changes were “uncoated kraft paper for packaging” and “soda/sulfate chemical wood pulp, exc. dissolving pulp”. With negative results, “sanitary pads and tampons made of any material” and “notebooks”. The biggest influences came from: “sanitary pads and tampons made of any material”, “toilet paper”, “uncoated paper for writing, printing, other graphic purposes” and “soda/sulphate chemical wood pulp, exc. dissolving pulp”. Together they accounted for 1.70 pp, of 1.71%, that is, the change is largely due to the four products, with 0.01 pp for the remaining seven products.

Oil refining and biofuels: for the fourth consecutive month, when comparing prices from the month to the previous month, the change was positive, this time at 0.09%, the least intense of the four. As a result, the cumulative result for the year went from -2.28%, in April, to -2.19%, in May (in the same month of 2023, the cumulative result was -18.12%). In the 12-month period, after 14 negative results, May's result became positive, 1.02%.

The highlight given to the sector was due to the fact that it was the third largest influence in the year (-0.23 pp, in 1.37%).

The four products that most influenced the monthly result accounted for 0.08 pp, 0.09%. It is noteworthy that they are all products whose weight in the calculation is not that great, considering that two, "diesel fuel" and "gasoline, except for aviation purposes", account for more than 65% of the sector, and they are not among the four.

Other chemical products: chemical producer prices fell by 0.63% on average between April and May, a decline that followed three consecutive increases in previous months. With the lowest prices of the month, the cumulative index in the year slowed to 2.38% and the cumulative index in 12 months, in turn, reached -2.05%, the least intense rate in the deflationary sequence of this indicator, which began at the end of 2022.

May's result is closely related to the dynamics of petrochemical prices, whose international and domestic markets showed signs of cooling down in the month, with balanced stock levels in the consumer chain. In this context, the economic group of resins and elastomers presented an average decline of 3.83% compared to April. In terms of influence on the sector's aggregate result, “unsaturated propylene” and “low-density polyethylene (LDPE)” stood out due to the impact of their lower prices.

Highlighted for having the third largest weight in the IPP calculation (7.77%), the chemical industry was also among the four biggest sectoral influences on the longer-term results of the survey, 0.18 pp in the year to date and -0. 16 pp compared to May 2023, the latter largely due to the result in fertilizers and agricultural pesticides.

Basic metals: in May, the activity's price change was 1.51% in relation to the previous month, reaching the sixth consecutive positive result in this indicator and making the activity stand out as the third biggest influence in this type of comparison among all sectors analyzed in the survey (0.09 pp in 0.45%). As a result, in the first five months of 2024, activity accumulates an increase of 7.45%, standing out as the second largest change and having the most intense influence on this indicator (0.43 pp in 1.37%) among all sectors. Regarding the indicator accumulated over 12 months, the activity remains in the negative field, with prices in May 2024 being, on average, 1.55% lower than those in May 2023.

Of the four products with the greatest influence on the monthly index, the three that followed in the same direction as the sector and presented positive results are from the group of non-ferrous metals: “aluminum plates and strips, thicker than 0.2 mm”, “aluminum unalloyed in raw forms” and “bars, profiles and rebars of copper and copper alloys”. The product that stood out in the opposite direction of activity, with a negative impact, is from the steel group: “carbon steel ingots, blocks, billets or plates”. These four products with the greatest influence in May compared to April.