In March, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds estimated for 2024 should total 298.3 million tonnes, 5.4% lower than that obtained in 2023 (315.4 million tonnes), with a reduction of 17.1 million tonnes; and 0.8% below that reported in February, with a decrease of 2.3 million tonnes. 

The area to be harvested is 77.7 million hectares, a decline of 0.2% compared to the area harvested in 2023, with a decrease of 125.5 thousand hectares, and a drop of 0.4% (286.0 thousand hectares) compared to February.

Rice, corn and soybeans, the three main products, together represent 91.6% of the estimated production and account for 87.0% of the area to be harvested. Compared to 2023, there were increases of 11.1% in the area to be harvested for upland cotton (seed), 4.5% for paddy rice, 7.0% for beans and 2.3% for of soybeans, with declines of 5.8% in the corn area (reductions of 8.2% in corn 1st crop and 5.1% in corn 2nd crop), 6.6% in wheat and 4.4% % in sorghum.

In relation to production, there were increases of 8.0% for upland cotton (seed), 1.7% for rice, 11.1% for beans and 28.3% for wheat, and decreases 3.3% for soybeans, 12.6% for sorghum and 11.4% for corn (reductions of 13.2% in corn 1st crop and 10.9% in corn 2nd crop).

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The March estimate for soybeans was 146.9 million tonnes. As for corn, the estimate was 116.1 million tonnes (24.1 million tonnes for corn 1st crop and 92.1 million tonnes for corn 2nd crop). Rice production was estimated at 10.5 million tonnes; that of wheat, at 9.9 million tonnes; that of herbaceous cotton (seed), at 8.4 million tonnes; and sorghum, at 3.8 million tonnes.

The estimated production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds showed positive annual change for two Major Regions: the South (9.3%) and the North (1.7%). There was a negative annual change for the other regions: Central-West (-13.0%), Southeast (-8.8%) and Northeast (-4.2%). As for the monthly change, the Northeast showed growth (0.1%), while the others showed decline: Southeast (-0.1%), the South (-0.9%), North Region (-0.4 %) and Central-West (-1.0%).

Mato Grosso leads as the largest national grain producer, with a share of 28.2%, followed by Paraná (13.7%), Rio Grande do Sul (13.3%), Goiás (10.2%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.4%) and Minas Gerais (5.7%), which, together, represented 79.5% of the total. Regarding regional participation, there is the following distribution: Central-West (47.0%), South (29.2%), Southeast (9.4%), Northeast (8.7%) and North (5 .7%).

Highlights in the March 2024 estimate compared to the previous month

In relation to February, there were increases in production estimates for barley (12.3% or 50,800 t), bean 2nd crop (7.7% or 110,996 t), oats (4.6% or 53,289 t ), potato 1st crop (3.8% or 63,498 t), wheat (3.3% or 318,624 t), canephora coffee (3.2% or 34,857 t), cassava (2.5 % or 452,555 t), upland cottonseed (2.3% or 189,713 t), sorghum (1.7% or 61,620 t), arabica coffee (0.6% or 14,750 t) , corn 2nd crop (0.3% or 265,092 t) and potatoes 2nd crop (0.1% or 1,283 t), and declines in grape production estimates (-9.9% or -158,996 t ), corn 1st crop (-4.0% or -1 012 597 t), soybeans (-1.6% or -2 352 380 t), beans 1st crop (-1.5% or 15 460 t ) and bean 3rd crop (-1.0% or -7,012 t).

Among the Major Regions, the volume of production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presented the following distribution: Central-West, 140.2 million tonnes (47.0%); South, 87.3 million tonnes (29.2%); Southeast, 28.0 million tonnes (9.4%); Northeast, 25.8 million tonnes (8.7%) and North, 17.1 million tonnes (5.7%).

The main positive absolute changes in production estimates, in relation to the previous month, occurred in Mato Grosso (240,586 t), Goiás (156,386 t), Paraná (141,300 t), Maranhão (55,899 t), Ceará (19,910 t), Bahia (19,500 t), Amazonas (8,851 t) and Rio de Janeiro (3,139 t). The negative changes occurred in Mato Grosso do Sul (- 1,775,783 t), Santa Catarina (-518,216 t), Rio Grande do Sul (-451,490 t), Federal District (-80,700 t), Rondônia (-80,161 t), Piauí (-71,618 t), Minas Gerais (-16,155 t), Espírito Santo (-1,069 t) and Amapá (-28 t).

HERBACEOUS COTTON (seed) – The estimate for cotton production is 8.4 million tonnes, an increase of 2.3% compared to the previous month, due to the growth in the planted area. In relation to 2023, the increase in production is 8.0%, with the planted area growing 11.1%. Crop productivity is expected to drop 2.8% compared to the last crop. With this forecast, the country should harvest another record in cotton production.

POTATOES – Potatoes are grown in three distinct seasons in Brazil: summer (1st crop), fall (2nd crop) and winter (3rd crop), with crops requiring suitable weather, good water availability during the producting cycle and rigorous pest and disease control. Production, considering the three crops of the product, should reach 4.2 million tonnes, an increase of 1.6% compared to the February estimate.

The 1st crop should contribute 41.6% to the total potatoes to be produced in the year. Estimated production was 1.7 million tonnes, an increase of 3.8% compared to the February estimate. The 2nd crop, which represents 32.6% of total production, was estimated at 1.4 million tonnes, 0.1% higher than the February estimate. For the 3rd crop, the production estimate was 1.1 million tonnes, with the February forecast being maintained.

COFFEE (beans) - Brazilian production, considering the two species, arabica and canephora, was estimated at 3.6 million tonnes, or 60.2 million 60 kg bags, increases of 1.4% compared to the previous month and 5.6% in relation to 2023. The average yield, of 1,856 kg/ha, in turn, increased by 1.1% in the monthly comparison and 4.2% in the annual comparison.

For arabica coffee, the estimated production was 2.5 million tonnes, or 41.2 million 60 kg bags, increases of 0.6% compared to February and 4.5% compared to the previous year. For the current year's crop, a positive biennial is expected, therefore, an increase in production in relation to the previous yearerior.

For canephora coffee, the production estimate was 1.1 million tonnes or 18.9 million 60 kg bags, an increase of 3.2% compared to the previous month, due to the 2.6% increase in yield and 0.6% growth in the harvested area. In relation to 2023, production should increase by 8.1%, as a result of growth of 6.2% in average yield and 1.8% in harvested area.

WINTER CEREALS (in grain) – The main winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oats and barley. Regarding wheat (grain), production should reach 9.9 million tonnes, an increase of 3.3% compared to the February estimate and 28.3% compared to 2023, when Brazil, although initially expecting a record crop, was let down due to a series of weather problems, which harmed the crops in the South Region.

The production of oat (in grain) was estimated at 1.2 million tonnes, an increase of 4.6% compared to February and 35.5% compared to 2023. The average yield grew 1.7% in compared to the previous month and 32.8% compared to 2023, when adverse weather damaged oat crops in the southern region of the country. The largest producers of the cereal are Rio Grande do Sul, with 849.9 thousand tonnes, an increase of 0.2% compared to February and 45.6% compared to the volume harvested in 2023; and Paraná, with 298.9 thousand tonnes, increases of 20.8% compared to February and 20.9% compared to 2023.

For barley (in grain), the estimated production was 462.7 thousand tonnes, an increase of 12.3% compared to February and 21.9% compared to the previous year. The average yield shows growth of 26.0% compared to the previous month and 21.9% compared to 2023, when adverse weather damaged oat crops in the South Region. The largest barley producers are Paraná, with 328 .8 thousand tonnes, increases of 18.3% compared to the previous month and 18.4% compared to 2023, and Rio Grande do Sul, with 110.5 thousand tonnes, an increase of 39.7% compared to what was produced in 2023. These states should be responsible for 95.0% of Brazilian barley production in 2024.

BEAN (seeds) – The estimated production of beans for 2024, considering the three crops, should reach 3.3 million tonnes, growth of 2.8% compared to the previous month and 11.1% compared to to 2023. This production should meet Brazilian domestic demand in 2024, possibly without the need to import the product.

The production estimate for the bean 1st crop was 1.0 million tonnes, a reduction of 1.5% compared to the February estimate; the expected average yield was 1.6% lower and the area to be harvested remained unchanged. Positive highlights for Ceará, which expects an 8.3% growth in production, and Mato Grosso, which reported an increase of 15.0% in production. The negative highlights were Piauí, which reported a decline of 8.9% in its production estimate; Minas Gerais, with a decline of 4.2%; Santa Catarina, with a decline of 12.7%; and for Rio Grande do Sul, with a decline of 5.3%.

Bean 2nd crop was estimated at 1.6 million tonnes, an increase of 7.7% compared to February, following the estimate of the average yield which rose 3.9% and the area to be harvested which grew 3.6%. These estimates were influenced by numbers from Paraná, with growth of 12.5%, due to the increase in planted area (12.6%); Santa Catarina, with growth of 45.0% and Mato Grosso do Sul, with growth of 781.0%. Negative highlight for Mato Grosso, which reduced its production estimate by 10.5%, due to declines of 5.7% in the area to be harvested and 5.0% in average yield.

Regarding the bean 3rd crop, the production estimate was 717.0 thousand tonnes, a decline of 1.0% compared to the February estimate, with the area to be harvested declining 0.8%. There was a 3.8% decline in production in Mato Grosso in relation to February, with the planted area decreasing by 5.4% and the average yield increasing by 1.6%.

CASSAVA (roots) – Production should reach 18.7 million tonnes, an increase of 2.5% compared to the previous month, however, a decrease of 2.4% compared to 2023. Amazonas reviwed its area and production estimate for 2024, expecting 752.5 thousand tonnes, a result of the increase in the planting area. However, in relation to the production volume obtained in 2023, production is expected to decline by 22.7%. In Pará, the largest Brazilian producer of cassava, accounting for 20.5% of the total, the production estimate declined 5.8% compared to 2023, mainly due to the reduction in the area to be harvested (-7.7 %). Yield should grow 2.0% and production reach 3.8 million tonnes.

Production in Pará, the second largest in the country, is expected to reach 3.6 million tonnes, a decline of 0.2% compared to February and growth of 3.7% compared to 2023, representing 19.4% of the total to be produced across the country in 2024. In Espírito Santo, there was a decline of 1.1% in the estimate in relation to February, with production expected to reach 126.4 thousand tonnes, while in Rio de Janeiro, production should reach 169.6 thousand tonnes, a monthly growth of 10.6% and an annual decline of 10.9%. In relation to the previous month, growth is also estimated in Mato Grosso do Sul (1.7%), while for Mato Grosso (-3.0%), Goiás (-0.6%) and Rio Grande do Sul (-0. 3%) decreases are expected.

CORN (grain) - The estimate for corn production totaled 116.1 million tonnes, representing a drop of 0.6% compared to the previous month. The monthly drop in total production is more related to the 1st crop, which presented a loss in average yield (-3.5%), influenced by the weather problems faced by crops in some producing states. The states in the South Region stand out for the biggest drops in monthly production.

Corn 1st crop presented a production estimate of 24.1 million tonnes, 4.0% lower or 1.0 million tonnes less compared to the previous month. There was a drop in production in several states. Rio Grande do Sul is the largest producer of corn 1st crop, accounting for 20.8% of the national total, however, some weather irregularities affected productivity in different regions of the state, harming the development of crops, which were also heavily attacked by pests such as leafhoppers and fungal diseases.

The estimate for corn 2nd crop totaled 92.1 million tonnes, representing an increase of 0.3% compared to the previous month, with the area declining 1.4% and the average yield increasing 1.7%. The biggest increases in production were seen in Rondônia (4.5% or 62,576 t), Maranhão (0.5% or 3,435 t), Minas Gerais (4.8% or 135,408 t) and Mato Grosso (3.9% or 1,560,223 t). The declines were mainly seen in the Federal District (-19.3% or -51,000 t), in Mato Grosso do Sul (-8.1% or -1,004,657 t), in Santa Catarina (-32.2 % or -26,261 t) and in Paraná (-2.8% or -408,700 t). Mato Grosso, the largest producer of corn 2nd crop, with a 44.8% share of the national total, was responsible for the largest increase in production compared to the previous month. Production is expected to reach 41.2 million tonnes. Paraná remains the 2nd largest producer, with a 15.5% share of the national total, despite showing a 2.8% decline in production when compared to the previous month, totaling 14.2 million tonnes.

SOYBEAN (in grain) – Mainly influenced by the monthly reviews made in Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, this month's estimate brought a new retraction of 1.6% in total national production, which should reach 146.9 million tonnes, which already represents an annual decrease of 3.3% compared to the quantity produced in the previous year, but which, even so, should represent almost half of the total cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced in the country in 2024. Producers expanded the areas of cultivation in the country by 2.4% in the year, and should total 45.3 million hectares planted. However, the effects caused by the El Nino climate phenomenon, characterized by more rainfall in the states of the South Region and the lack of regular rainfall, combined with the record of high temperatures in the Center-North of the country, brought, as a consequence, a limitation in the productive potential of the legume in most of the producing Federation Units, justifying the 5.5% drop in the national average yield compared to the previous harvest, totaling 3,247 kg/ha.

SORGHUM (grain) – The March estimate for sorghum production was 3.8 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7% compared to that obtained in February and a reduction of 12.6% compared to that obtained in the 2023 harvest .

In comparison with February, there were increases in production (1.7%), area (1.1%) and average yield (0.5%). Therefore, the increase in production was due more to the expansion of area and, in part, to the higher average yield, especially in the Northeast (9.8%), with growth in Bahia (13.7%), in Ceará (0.5 %) and in Piauí (1.4%), which were responsible for the increase in average regional yield. The area, in turn, increased in the Central-West (2.1%) and in the Northeast (1.2%), remaining stable in the other Geographic Regions. There were no production reviews in the North, Southeast and South Regions.

GRAPES – Brazilian production is expected to reach 1.5 million tonnes, declines of 9.9% compared to the previous month and 15.4% compared to the 2023 harvest. The reduction in vineyard productivity is the main cause of the drop production this year, due to the climate problems faced in the South Region, responsible for 54.8% of national production.

The estimate for Rio Grande do Sul was reviwed in March, indicating a 16.4% reduction in production, due to weather problems occurring in the producing regions. During the year, the reduction reached 22.2%, due to the lower productivity of crops that were affected by excessive rainfall, mainly during flowering, in addition to the occurrence of wind and hail.